Kennedy on ballot in Michigan to Face Trump and Biden

On the same day that President Biden was endorsed by several members of the Kennedy clan, the Michigan Secretary of State announced that Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. will be on the ballot in Michigan for the 2024 presidential election.  That is most certainly a game changer – and could prove to be a fatal blow to President Biden’s campaign. 

RFK, Jr. was put on the ballot as the candidate of the ballot-qualified Natural Law Party.  That means he does not need to get 12,000 signatures to qualify as an independent.

By most political calculus, Michigan is a must-win battleground state for both Biden and President Trump.  It is one of the big states, with 15 electoral votes.  It may also be a bellwether for other industrial battleground states.

Trump has been holding a head-to-head lead in Michigan in most of the major polls – and for several months.  If RFK, Jr. is added in, Trump’s lead expands. 

Michigan is one of RFK Jr.’s better states.  According to a Marketing Resource Group poll, the eldest son of the assassinated senator garners 13 percent of the vote.

With all five candidates on the ballot, Trump wins with 37 percent of the vote over Biden’s 34 percent.  Green Party candidate Jill Stein gets 2 percent, and independent candidate Cornell West gets 1 percent.

Interestingly, RFK, Jr. tops Biden among independent voters.  Trump has a strong lead with 33 percent of the vote … RFK. Jr. with 22 percent and Biden in third place with 21 percent.

The unpopularity of the two major candidates had created a new polling category.  It is called the “double haters” vote.  Of those who have an expressed dislike for both of the major candidates, RFK, Jr. gets 40 percent of them.  Trump retains 11 percent and Biden 10 percent.

Compounding Biden’s problem in Michigan is the traditional Muslim Democrat votes.  In the Democrat primary, 100,000 voters cast “uncommitted” ballots as a show of protest against Biden’s response to the Hamas War.  Since then, there have been major protests calling Biden “Genocide Joe” and calls for voters to skip voting in the presidential race.  The pro-Palestinian protest has since spread beyond the Muslim community – especially among young college voters.

RFK, Jr. is not likely to get anywhere near the 270 electoral votes to become the 47^th President of the United States.  But he can get enough state ballots to influence the outcome.  In the extreme, he could – just could — win a few electoral votes.  Perhaps enough to keep either Biden or Trump from getting the mandatory 270 votes.  That would put the selection of the next President into the hands of the newly elected House of Representatives – and most likely return Trump to the Oval Office. 

That is because the vote is not by the total members of Congress, but by one vote per state.  Even when in the minority, in total House members, the GOP has a three of four-state edge in states with Republican majorities – and that is likely to be the case in the next Congress.

Michigan has frequently been described as a critical state.   It appears to be trending more and more in Trump’s favor – and RFK, Jr. is clearly contributing to that.

So, there ‘tis.