Is regime change in Iran the real goal?

Virtually all the discussion about the Middle East centers on the military exchanges between Israel and Iran, with the STATED goal being the prevention of Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.  But is that really the goal?

Since 1979, Iran has been the world’s most consistent and important producer of international terrorism.  In the 46 years since, the centerpiece of Iran’s foreign policy has been “death to Israel” and “death to the United States”. It is more than a political slogan for hometown consumption.  Tehran has actively pursued that policy with attacks on Israel and the United States – killing thousands – often orchestrated by Iran through financial and military support for proxy terrorist organizations, including Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis, al Qaeda, Taliban and others.  The groups Iran did not directly control, they influenced through a common cause.

Focusing on Iran’s ambition to have nuclear weapons addresses only a symptom.  The core problem is terrorism.  With or without “the bomb”, Iran pursues terrorism. Whether there is a cease fire between Israel and Iran … whether the United States enters the conflict or not … whether Iran gives up its ambition for a nuclear bomb or not … the terrorism against Israel, the United States and the civilized world will continue.

The obvious resolution to the greater problem is … regime change in Tehran.  In fact, I believe that regime change IS the Israeli goal.  And I believe it has the passive approval of President Trump.  If the Israel/Iran conflict gets to that point, I believe the United States will get involved – albeit as little as possible in terms of public view.  Regime change is a compelling goal at this time for several reasons.  Israel and the United States are strong enough – and Iran weak enough – to accomplish that mission. 

The idea of regime change in Tehran is not an unpopular idea among many Arab nations that see Iran as a cancer that prevents peace in the Middle East.  Several nations have already entered into a peaceful acceptance of Israel – recognizing its right to exist.  That was seen early on when President Carter brokered peace between Egypt and Israel.  President Trump’s surprisingly successful Abraham Accords resulted in peace agreements and normalization between in Israel and several Arab nations.

Despite their al-Qaeda affiliation, even the new leadership in Syria has taken a more nuanced view on the issue of Israel.  The new leader in Damascus, Ahmed al-Sharaa, has already had meetings with President Trump and Israeli officials.

It is likely that Saudi Arabia would have joined the Abraham Accords were it not for the Iran-sponsored Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023.  In fact, the attack was timed by Tehran for the very purpose of delaying and derailing any agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia. The goal of Iran was to thwart normalization between the Jewish state and Arab Muslim nations.

A regime change in Tehran opens a real possibility of a peaceful Middle East.  But that cannot be achieved as long as Iran’s primary foreign policy goal is “death to Israel” and “Death to the United States” – and as long as Tehran will provide money and weapons to achieve that goal.

Peace cannot be achieved as long as Tehran has the ability to support proxy terrorist groups throughout the region.  Israel has been very successful at crushing those proxy groups in Gaza, Lebanon, Kuwait, with significant support from the American military in both defensive and offensive actions.

Another reason that this is a propitious time to force a regime change in Tehran is the people of Iran. The brutally oppressive religious extremist leadership currently in charge is not overwhelmingly popular with the people. Experts claim that 80 percent of the Ianian people oppose the regime –but they are unarmed and without obvious leadership. The ayatollahs in Iran have had to brutally suppress civil protests against the regime in the past.  There is a significant moderate political opposition force that would be eager to take over.

Destroying Iran’s nuclear capability does nothing to resolve its terrorist policies.  Taking down the regime accomplishes both goals.  While Israel and the United States COULD take down the regime in short order.  Israel could do it alone, with the United States in the background.  Iran is defenseless – and that means the regime is defenseless.  But a deadly bombing attack on leaders – especially killing the 86-year-old Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei — could result in a grassroots backlash among the Iranian people.

Trump recently indicated that killing the Supreme Leader was not in the current plan.  But Trump notably added “but we could”.  Trump has even gone so far as to call on Iran leadership to “surrender”.  That is essentially a call for regime change.

The better way to achieve regime change is to keep pounding Iran – not only to damage its nuclear sites, but to crash the Iranian economy in ways that will impact the people and promote an uprising. In fact, if the public protest were powerful enough, the regime could be brought down without a military attack on the leadership.  Short of that, evidence of enough public protest could make an attack politically feasible.

Looking at Israel’s actions since that fateful October 7 attack, it seems obvious that regime change is the unstated but real goal – and perhaps in the offing.  And that would be a very good thing, indeed.

So, there ‘tis.