This is a time honored tradition for pundits and commentators to make predictions for the next year, so here goes. These are the best I can do based on my interpretation of events and conversations with people who know stuff. At the end of the year (if I remember) I’ll do a post mortem.
Elections
- Republicans will take Congress by 20 seats. They will take the Senate by 2 seats. Numerous attempts to cheat will be exposed and thwarted.
2. Trump will announce for President, Pompeo will be his running mate. DeSantis will stay in Florida. Nicki Haley will announce her candidacy for President as well. No other significant challengers.
3. VP Harris will announce a run for President 2024. At least 3 Democrat Governors will announce, as well as some of the last elections schmucks. AOC will announce for the Senate, and be smashed by Schumer.
World
3. Putin will invade the Ukraine (70% chance) in February or March. Biden and Western Europe will implement anemic sanctions that will make no difference whatsoever.
Counter Prediction (30% chance): Biden and the EU offer gifts of great magnitude to Putin so that he does not invade the Ukraine. He gets the pipeline, he gets a guarantee that NATO will not expand, some trade agreements, guarantees and a whole lot of other crap.
4. China will not back down and will continue to build its military, but it will not attack Taiwan in 2022. They will announce at least two major new weapons systems, and consolidate control over all Asian waters.
China will not be forced to pay reparations for COVID, but China’s economy will suffer badly, and therefore its people will too. Xi will not care, it does not interfere with his plans. The Silk Road and other initiatives will continue.
5. Iran will announce they have nuclear weapons. Israel will attempt to take them away. Biden will condemn Israel’s attempts (whether successful or not), and will not do anything about Iran.
I previously predicted that the U.S. would be mired in a three front war. It will not happen in 2022. The events of 2022 that I predict here are a dress rehearsal, circumstances will coalesce in 2023.
COVID
6. COVID will continue at moderate levels, but treatments will emerge and the death rates will dwindle. By November people will stop caring at all, except as a political issue. At least five states will continue strict COVID measures, and the party in charge will not be re-elected. Democrats will suffer greatly because of it.
Economy
7. Inflation will exceed a rate of 10%/year for at least three separate months.
8. The Fed rate will increase to 1.5% but no higher. A new inflation measurement will be introduced, perhaps more than one. If more than one, they will disagree with each other.
9. Bitcoin will rise, but will not hit $100,000.
10. Housing prices will continue to rise in preparation for a significant crash in 2023.
Other
11. Alec Baldwin will not go to jail. Jussi Smollett will go to jail, but not for more than a month. Elizabeth Holmes will not go to jail. Ghislaine Maxwell will be sentenced to an effective life sentence, but will agree to a deal with the Feds. She will commit suicide, shortly thereafter.
12. Mass exodus from California and New York will quietly continue, and increase by 50% in 2022.
Administration and Congress
13. The Democrats will pass no major legislation during 2022. Build Back Better will not come back to life. Major climate initiatives will not pass.
14. Biden will have at least two major health scares during 2022. They will be played down and not well publicized, but the rumors will tell all.
15. Abortion rights will continue to tighten in 2022. The Supreme Court will find a way to dodge a ruling on Roe v. Wade.