Any Bets on How Long the New Iranian Supreme Leader Lasts?
The recent appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as Iran’s new Supreme Leader prompts a simple question. How long will this guy last?
The strategy unfolding in Iran appears straightforward. It involves the systematic removal of unacceptable leaders. This process commenced with the elimination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, along with an estimated forty of his top leaders, staff members, and family members in the initial strikes. Subsequent operations targeted the replacements and even some individuals responsible for selecting those replacements.
Notably, none of those earlier actions succeeded in eliminating Ali Khamenei’s hardline son, Mojtaba Khamenei. President Trump issued a clear warning to those currently managing affairs in Tehran. Do not select Mojtaba. He is unacceptable. That admonition went unheeded. Since then, Trump has openly predicted that Mojtaba will not remain as Supreme Leader for very long.
As of this writing, Mojtaba has not been seen or heard from publicly since the attack that claimed the lives of his father, mother, wife, and son. Reports indicate that he sustained wounds in the assault, though the severity remains unknown. If those accounts hold true, one wonders whether the injuries have contributed to his prolonged absence from view.
Trump has stated that it is not his intention to personally select Iran’s leader, yet he reserves the right to veto unacceptable candidates. This position effectively places a prominent target on the back of the newly installed Supreme Leader.
Mojtaba is regarded as even more brutal and hardline than his father. Should he have survived the attack that decimated his family, it seems improbable that the experience will not make him a kinder and gentler person. One might reasonably expect the opposite — a man hardened by personal loss and elevated to supreme power amid ongoing conflict.
Democrats have flooded the airwaves with declarations that Mojtaba’s selection represents a major setback for Trump—yet another pretext to label the entire operation against Iran as a grave mistake. They insist that eliminating Ali Khamenei merely paved the way for an even worse Supreme Leader. Such commentary might carry some weight if one assumes the conflict has concluded and Mojtaba is now a permanent fixture—or if the primary objective is to undermine the American effort, a pursuit in which many Democrats appear fully invested.
This line of argument amounts to little more than political spin — propaganda that conveniently benefits Tehran. The conflict is not over yet. One suspects that Operation End of Mojtaba is already in the planning stages, with on-the-ground intelligence operatives beginning to locate and monitor his movements. The notion that Iran can simply install a more extreme successor and expect the pressure to cease reflects either wishful thinking or deliberate misrepresentation.
Trump’s approach is refreshingly direct in an era of diplomatic tiptoeing. He refuses to pretend that the United States must accept whatever figure emerges from Iran’s opaque clerical machinery, especially when that figure promises continued hostility. By blackballing Mojtaba in advance, Trump has stripped away any illusion of inevitability surrounding the appointment. Iran chose defiance over prudence, elevating a man Trump has already deemed a “lightweight” and unacceptable.
The irony is thick. Tehran parades Mojtaba as a symbol of unbreakable resolve, yet his conspicuous absence since the family-shattering strike raises awkward questions. Is he truly leading, or is he recovering in some undisclosed location? The regime’s hardliners trumpet continuity, but the silence from the new leader speaks volumes. Opponents within Iran have been heard chanting against him from their windows, a rare public display of dissent amid the chaos.
There is also a question whether the new Supreme Leader is really the leader. There has already been a dispersion of power and authority to regional commanders. To the extent that anyone is in charge, it is more likely to be the Iran Republican Guard folks.
In the end, this episode underscores a fundamental reality. Aggressive regimes do not moderate through accommodation. They respond to strength. The targeted eliminations have disrupted Iran’s leadership succession, forcing hasty decisions under fire. Democrats may spin this as failure, but the battlefield tells a different story. The war continues even as oil prices surge. And the mullahs’ grip is shakier than ever.
One need not be a betting man to wager that Mojtaba Khamenei’s tenure will prove remarkably brief. History suggests that when Trump draws a red line, he eventually backs it with action. He is not a man given to empty defiant gestures. Tehran may have rolled the dice on a harder hardliner, but the house—in this case, American and allied powers—holds the stronger hand. How long before the current “unacceptable leader” meets those celestial virgins? Place your bets while the wagering is still open.
So, there ‘tis.
Somewhere in here we have seven dead, 150 wounded, 8 severely, and 20 nations at war, presumably with dead and wounded. Plus 175 Iranian school kids as we relied on 10-year old intelligence. Trump passed the buck on that so far.
Larry has laid out three sets on strategies in his three consecutive articles; the latest he calls “unfolding,” a clear sign that he will be sure of the strategy once it’s over.
Meanwhile where’s the enriched uranium? We don’t know but they were loading tubes just before the strike so it could be out of country even by now.
Just hope we can end it before suffering more losses. Pretty sure we don’t get regime change with this strategy. To answer the question: VZ head picked by Maduro is still there, no regime change. Iran has had three heads in like 40 or 50 years, he’s 56, so 25 years unless assassinated. Pretty sure he’s not giving the finger to our satellites.
Dunger is spouting bullshit as usual. How many killed or wounded? Remember this. One of our generals in wwII said that you don’t win a war by dying for your country. You make the other poor bastard die for his country
Frank Danger …. You are so obsessed with being the anti-Larry that you go to stupid. Maduro was the head of the regime. he is gone. That is a change. More importantly, those remaining in change are NOT following his policies. We have more favorable policies by a long shot. That is a HUGE change. That is a significant change in the regime. You argument that maduro is gone but NOTHING changed??? LOL Stupid. We already have had a regime change is Tehran, but with the new players pursuing the same policies. That means we have to change it again. The new Supreme Leader is a symbolic cardboard cutout, According to reports he may be in a coma, disfigured and missing a leg. The person in charge appears to be the head of the IRGC, And the new one only lasted 24 hours. Creeping regime change in process. And as far as your insults and snide remarks, they only prove your intellectual disabilities.
Larry, to speak your language, you are so obsessed with being right by being hard right, that you go stupid.
Your TAS (Trump Adoration Syndrome) limits your acceptance of facts outside the Trump bubble. Yes, “Maduro was the head of the regime. he is gone. That is a change.” As I noted, “VZ head picked by Maduro is still there, no regime change.” She may not be Maduro, but the adage “walks like a duck, looks like a duck” still holds and his administration is still 100% there. You keep whining about my snideness, insults, but there are none there except in your mind. It appears you are making that up this time based on the fact I disagree with you and provided evidence.
In both Iran and a VZ we took the head of the snake; abduction in one case, assassination in another, it’s not the best look for us, but good to see them gone. In VZ, there seems a posture change, but still waiting on real change or success. A bit early for youl to call “mission accomplished.” Likewise in Iran, we believe this guy is worse, but it’s early yet and we see escalation of hostilities. Here, you might say we replaced most of the administration to no avail, at this point, but pray for better days.
In VZ: Rodríguez was hand-picked by Maduro, is a life-long socialist who hates the America that she claims killed her grandfather, another socialist. Here father, another Marxist, was founder of a major Marxist party in VZ. One might say anti-capitalism, anti-USA, is in her dna. As is masked guys with guns disappearing citizens. The European Union, the United States, and Canada have placed sanctions on her due to claimed human rights violations and her role in the political crisis in the country. She was, and is, head of SEBIN, VZ’s horrible secret police that spies on citizens, especially Jews, with a very long record of human rights violations, under her leadership, including current allegations of torture and murder of political opponents. Worse yet, she’s rumored to have lived in Santa Monica, CA, while college-aged, the hotseat of American crazy according to you guys. More favorable policies?
While the immediate, post-Maduro, environment has shown changes in tone and, certain, areas of policy, the core, bureaucratic and security structures, of the, former, state are reported to remain largely, intact.
Tell you what Larry, you don’t have to believe me, here’s CSIS saying similar from a March 2 piece. Using the ole bias meter, they rate highly factual and least biased when they say: “Venezuela has remained in political limbo for nearly two months since the January 3 capture of Nicolás Maduro. The dictator is gone, but the de facto regime has not relinquished power. Hundreds of political prisoners have been released, though hundreds more still languish in jail. The country’s most prominent opposition leader—María Corina Machado—remains in exile.”
*https://www.csis.org/analysis/venezuelans-welcome-us-intervention-hope-rapid-democratic-transition-post-maduro* The story concludes that VZ citizens are hopeful. I would suggest our stance should be that as well given time will tell. I don’t pay homage to lib service. And I can see a grin-fuck a mile away.
The next piece does not hit the media bias radar, must be DC think tank, but seems an interesting read making similar points to mine: “The removal of Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026 has altered Venezuela’s political facts and reopened conversations about U.S. commercial engagement. But for American companies, the change is more contextual than legal. The sanctions framework governing Venezuela remains largely intact, and corporate decision-making continues to turn on licensing, counterparties, and bank risk appetite—not diplomatic signaling.”
*https://www.wttlonline.com/stories/venezuela-after-maduro-what-has-changed-and-what-has-not,14683*
Larry, the head is gone, that is change; the regime is still there, it did not change. The new head is the old head and has made some concessions, exhibits a better tone, but if your boss was just kidnapped, your Russian missile tenders stopped supporting you during attack, your defenses are minimal, a better tone seems a great way to go. Perhaps a good start in a better direction, but her record is one of a Marxist who hates America, for three generations at least, and head of the secret police with numerous human rights violations since 2018. You can say “mission accomplished,” regime change complete, but the experts are less sanguine than those suffering TAS. The secret police still reign over the people in VZ.
FYI: It’s a long shot that you can prove more than words in: “We have more favorable policies by a long shot.” But I can give you “huge change.” I would just be more prospective versus your seemingly unobjective sycophantical optimism.
And no, I am not stupid. I have been tested :>)
And when you say: “We already have had a regime change is Tehran, but with the new players pursuing the same policies. That means we must change it again. The new Supreme Leader is a symbolic cardboard cutout” Uh, VZ is a cutout and no new players anywhere else in the regime. The “we have to change it again” means how much war, how long, how many kids? Seems we are about to add boots on the ground. I just bet you will be gung-ho for that escalation to and will not have your bloodlust satisfied until we are policing the streets to prop up our puppet like Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan. And when VZ turns sour, do you send em in to force our will?
Bottom line: Larry, you have not convinced me. Many experts agree with me. I hope you are right, that I and the experts are wrong, but I am not in a “mission accomplished” frame of mind to say a life-long socialist head on the secret police with numerous human rights violations lodged against her is a Godsend to America. Yet. And re-read my comment; I think your insult radar and snidometer is set a little too sensitive on this one, this time as you come off as a whiner with that crap. A whiner who picks a fight and then blames the other guy.
Uncle Dung: It appears you spew. Of course, no source, just you spew.
The numbers I reported are sourced from CENTCOM and there’s really no need for childish name calling or foul language. You can look them up anywhere. Feel free to ask for a link if unable.
“CENTCOM/Iran Conflict Injuries (As of March 10, 2026)
• Total Wounded: Approximately 140 U.S. service members. (my source said 140-150)
• Severely Injured: 8 personnel.
• Returned to Duty: 108 personnel. (Hegseth the drunk said they are reviewing this for clarity)
• Fatalities: 7 U.S. service members. (it may be eight now, plus six on the refueling airship)
• Key Incidents: Injuries resulted from Iranian retaliatory drone/missile strikes on U.S. positions in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.
• Context: The injuries occurred during Operation Epic Fury, a joint U.S.-Israeli campaign targeting Iranian capabilities
Uncle Dung is BUSTED for totally bullshit claim and rudeness.
And it’s up to eight, plus the six that went down on the fuel carrier airship. To hear that they died for an “excursion” and “we won” does not sound like your quote which was Patton from his speech to the Third Army before Normandy. The full passage was: “No one ever won a war by dying for their country. They won it by making some other poor dumb-bastard die for his.” Except, in reality, we are letting Ukrainians die so we can attack Iran to lower sanctions on Russian oil so Russians can pass info where to find us to the Iranians. It’s totally convoluted. And with Israel bombing Lebanon and threatening yet another land grab, it sure sounds like Bibi is leading Trump by the nose to get what Bibi wants.
Quote wise, I am more a “Speak softly and carry a big stick—you will go far” guy as attributed to U.S. President Theodore Roosevelt. You don’t get support by beating someone over the head. Compliance maybe, support, never. I like Eisenhower’s quote not followed by Trump’s administration that said: “Plans are useless, but planning is indispensable.” Eisenhower, Washington, most of the greats are like most of the soldiers who faced combat that I know who have a real aversion to conflict, are humble, not braggadocio, recognizing the need for war, and when in it, you must win it. My father was in his 60’s when we talked. Eisenhower also said; “Every gun that is made signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed.”
The rest is my opinion; sure, feel free to call it bullshit, but at least I have one. Which was and is: “Just hope we can end it before suffering more losses. Pretty sure we don’t get regime change with this strategy. To answer the question: VZ head picked by Maduro is still there, no regime change. Iran has had three heads in like 40 or 50 years, he’s 56, so 25 years unless assassinated. Pretty sure he’s not giving the finger to our satellites.”
Dunger it’s sad that you’re rooting against America. But that’s what democrats do. Verbal treason is mostly legal so keep at it.
Paul DunGoff: How on God’s green earth do you deduce that I am rooting against America? You would be a stupid fool to do so. How do you ever draw that asinine conclusion?
Dunger you’re like most democrats who believe that America owes the world an apology for existing. You people have an agenda to fundamentally transform America into a socialist shithole. By following your ranting and bitching You speak loud and clear
Paul DunGoff: You stupid fucks and your socialism paranoia. What would ever lead you to believe that stupidity. Find it. Show us. Or STFU if you can’t proving what a low life piece of crap you really are. I have never said any of the cockamamie crappola you spew. I worked as upper middle p&l manager for fortune 100. My customers were from small business to Fortune 500. I prowled Wall Street; what was your beat; Walmart? I am an investor in American capitalism; I put my capital into American investments making a good living in capitalism. Even in Trump’s economic chaos, pulled a few grand on Comcast today. What’s in your wallet? Hourly pay?
Fuck off or prove it instead off spewing dung. You won’t, you can’t. Just a useless spent rubber.
From Larry’s home town and one fine educational establishment, my father went there for his Masters in Economics that he never used, so I am biased, it’s Professor Pape from University of Chicago who has been analyzing what he calls “the escalation trap” for decades and says: “the 2026 Iran war is trapped in an “escalation trap,” similar to Vietnam, where precision airstrikes failed to achieve lasting coercion, instead causing a widening, unpredictable conflict. He argues that the U.S. is losing control, while Iran is strengthening its position. Pape says relying on airstrikes to force regime change is a “smart bomb trap” that fails to produce positive outcomes, instead hardening resistance, escalating, and expanding the war. Where’s the uranium? Why are we there? The enriched uranium is missing, could even be out-of-country and in the hands of proxies. It’s basically in torpedo shaped tubes seen being loaded on trucks before the bombs fell. The knowledge to build bombs, missiles, etc. is still there. As the bombs fall, there’s more Iranians screaming “death to America” than before. And in America, our Congress is calling for us to rid America of Muslims. All Muslims hated by emboldened Republican Congressmen saying what could not be said only two weeks ago. And Muslim terrorist attacks fire up in America. Contrary to the belief that the U.S. controls the conflict, Pape posits that Iran, Israel, Russia, and global energy markets are now driving the escalation, leaving the U.S. in a dangerous, uncontrolled, and widening war. The US escalates by lowering sanctions on Russian oil, adding dollars to Russia’s efforts against Ukraine while simultaneously bombing Iran’s ability to produce more oil. Counterintuitively, Pape suggests Iran may be winning strategically by consolidating power, fracturing the U.S.–Gulf coalition, and creating economic shocks. Pape compares the current conflict’s strategic patterns to the escalation seen in Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan and even Kosovo. He warns that this is a “long war” that could involve indirect fighting between the U.S., China, and Russia across multiple theaters. The next step could be boots on the ground, a limited “excursion” of marines not a full scale ground-based invasion. Yeah, seen it, felt it, been there.
I am not saying I agree with this “angle,” but if you read up on this guy, he seems to make a compelling case that what we are doing here, we have done a number of times before, and the outcomes are not always positive, and worse yet, unanticipated. Like forgetting that 20% of our oil goes through a 20-mile wide bottleneck with the enemy on one shore. That means you can see one side from the other, that close.
Then again, if gas goes up, the market goes down, Trump can repeat his claim “we won,” and the current incursion is over. I pray for that too,
Dunger you should remember that we are a better and stronger country because of Trump.
How long will the new Iranian leader last? Hopefully, less than two seconds.