GOP Enters Midterm Election Season with Low Expectations

We are on the cusp of the midterm election season – that time when we begin to take up more serious punditry, and voters start locking in their decisions. The crystal ball is still a little cloudy, but some things are starting to take shape. The overriding issue is which party is going to have control of the House and Senate come January of 2027.

For some time I have predicted that the Democrats will take the House. It has as much to do with tradition as contemporary issues. The party that controls the White House and the House going into the midterms usually loses seats in the House – and by significant numbers.

In 1938, Democrats took control with a record gain of 65 seats. In more recent times, President Clinton lost 54 seats 1994. President Bush lost 30 in 2006. President Obama lost a whopping 63 seats in 2010. President Trump lost 40 in 2018.

That tradition runs up against the GOP holding one of the slimmest margins in American history. At this moment, Republicans have a two‑seat margin — barely enough to enact their own legislative agenda. Essentially, it is a majority in name only. It is the majority that has repeatedly struggled to function. Despite partisan criticism, however, Speaker Johnson has done an admirable job of getting most of Trump’s critical legislation across the finish line.

Making Republican election prospects even worse this year is the fact that the mood of the country is running against them. We see that in the polling and in the various interim and special elections. Poll after poll shows Republicans trailing Democrats on the generic congressional ballot by anywhere from 3 to 7 points. That may not sound like much, but historically, a lead of even 2 or 3 points in the generic ballot often translates into substantial seat gains for the party out of power. The numbers have been remarkably consistent for months, suggesting that the electorate’s dissatisfaction is not a passing storm but a weather pattern.

And then there are the special elections – the canaries in the political coal mine. In race after race, Democrats have been outperforming their 2024 numbers, sometimes by double digits. These are not isolated flukes. They are happening in suburban districts, rural districts, and even in districts that Donald Trump carried.

The most dramatic example came out of Texas, where a long‑held Republican state senate seat flipped to the Democrats in a special election that surprised even seasoned analysts. That district had been reliably red for decades, with Trump carrying the district by 17 points in 2024. The Democratic candidate didn’t just squeak by. He won by a comfortable 9 point margin – a shift of 26 points in less than two years. That is transitional.

The predominantly Latino district presents an ominous warning to the GOP. Republican gains among Latinos in recent years are reversing largely due to Trump’s deportation policies. As America’s largest minority group, such a shift has implications in other districts.

These interim election results matter because they reflect real voter behavior, not hypothetical preferences. Polls are imprecise. Voters in special elections actually cast ballots. And what they are telling us is that the political winds are blowing in one direction — and it is not favoring the GOP.

In addition, the Supreme Court has recently upheld the new California congressional map – which is expected to give Democrats up to five additional House seats. How this may be offset by redistricting in red states is yet to be seen.

Presidential popularity always plays a major role in midterms. Historically, the President’s approval rating is one of the strongest predictors of how their party will perform. When approval is above 50 percent, the president’s party often holds its ground or even gains seats. When approval dips below 45 percent, the losses can be brutal. And right now, President Trump is facing a favorability problem. His approval numbers have been stuck in the low 40s across most reliable polls — with disapproval consistently above 50 percent. That is not a formula for midterm success.

This is also the time when voters start locking in their choices. The early months of an election year are when the broad outlines of the electorate’s mood begin to harden. Each party will have its base – the loyalists who would vote for their party even if the candidate was a cardboard cutout. But elections are not won by the base. They are won by the swing voters and the independents. And right now, those voters are leaning away from the GOP.

Independents, in particular, have been breaking toward Democrats in both polling and special elections. These are the voters who decide close races. They are not overtly ideological. They are not partisan. At this moment, they are signaling discomfort with the current Republican leadership in Washington.

None of this guarantees a Democratic takeover. Politics is fluid. Events can intervene. Campaigns matter. But the early indicators – the polling, the special elections, the presidential approval numbers, the historical patterns – all point in the same direction. If the GOP cannot reverse these trends soon, they may find themselves watching the House gavel change hands in January of 2027.

If the Senate remains in Republican control, House Democrats have no hope of enacting their pet progressive legislation. It might spend most of its time impeaching Trump and other Republican officeholders.

As far as the Senate is concerned, I am holding with my prediction that the GOP will retain a slim majority – although I am lowering the odds. And no matter which party controls the Senate, the filibuster will continue to frustrate progress in the upper chamber. Welcome to gridlock.

The crystal ball may still be cloudy, but the shapes forming inside it are becoming harder to ignore – and the trajectories more difficult to change.

So, there ‘tis.