Harris takes the lead in several polls … for now
There can be no refutation of the fact that Vice President Harris has taken a small lead in most of the national polls. If you crunch all the polls together, Harris jumped 8 points – from a four point deficit to a four point lead.
While that is not good news for President Trump, it is not devastating either. In previous commentaries, I foresaw Harris getting a bump simply by not being an 81-year-old man with an unpopular record and diminishing mental and physical capability — which she did. I also predicted that she would get another bump out of the Democrat convention – which she did not. And that is noteworthy.
As a typical example, we can look at the Florida Atlantic University Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab (PolCom Lab) poll. (Wouldn’t FAU Poll have been sufficient?) It puts Harris in the lead 48 percent to 44 percent.
Since the numbers between Harris and Trump are tight – to say the least – any bumps can swing the pendulum. The two things to be considered at this time is the size of the lead – and how it can change in the future.
If there is any good news for Trump, it is the size of the Harris lead. She did not surge into a commanding lead despite all the happy talk, optimism and fairy dust being tossed around at the convention – and despite the overwhelmingly rave reviews given to Harris by a crony news media.
Also, Trump can take some solace from the act that most polls show her below 50 percent. A 48 to 44 percent lead leaves 9 percent of potential voters unaccounted for — more than enough to flip the lead. Harris’ favorability rating is also below 50 percent.
Of course, there is not a lot of time to change the numbers. North Carolina – an important battleground state — starts early voting as you read this. Yep! Voting is about to be underway. The earliest ballots are already in the mail. Those who keep talking about the number of days to Election Day are living in the past. By then, most voters are likely to have already cast their ballots.
Trump is not down and out by a long shot. The skies over Harris have a number of dark clouds. Harris is still behind the curve on the issues voters rank as most important – the economy, inflation, immigration and crime. Harris leads abortion – which does not even hit the top ten voter concerns in most surveys – and is making Trump himself her major issue.
Harris’ weakness on issues is why she has been avoiding public forums, press conferences and interviews. She had a friendly interview with CNN’s Dana Bash. That is it at the time of this commentary. So far, she is running the Biden bunker campaign. But her stand on issues – past and present – will come into play in the coming weeks. And despite the idolatry from the left and the media, Harris is not the most likable candidate in the political firmament.
While Minnesota Governor Tim Walz is an affable guy, his political beliefs are also a bit to the left of the American mainstream. He will be selling image over substance.
The Harris lead is secure. Looking at past races, Democrats with such narrow leads do not win. On the other hand, the theory that what is past is prologue may not apply to this unconventional election season. Despite all the emotional optimism, Harris may have topped out. That is just a “may.”
So, there ‘tis.
.
” In previous commentaries, I foresaw Harris getting a bump simply by not being an 81-year-old man with an unpopular record and diminishing mental and physical capability — which she did. ”
don’t you mean 78-year-old-man? heh heh
Like I have been saying for some time, won’t know much until September 10th, and about a week later, as the debate ends and then we calculate the effect on the polls. I am pretty sure there will be a debate bump —- one way or the other based on the entirety of the debate, not necessarily the perceived outcome.
Will she look inexperienced, nervous, and unready, will he look old, rambling, and sweaty?
If we turn up, Trump will lose. We have added great numbers in women, youngsters, indy’s, workers, and minorities. We have proof in the money. People are pounding the pavement for us. And you are hustling deep state, waves of alien encounters of the deadly kind, and other more disgusting forms of fake fears and loathing’s. The more he talks, the more walk our way.
But could all be gone in a flash in the debate. Think we have seen that before…….
As much as we should of primaried Harris, you should of at least had Trump do one primary debate tween him, DeSantis and Halley. But here we are.
This is what I check every couple of days:
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris
Scroll down to see the chart.
What’s interesting is the Trump favored Rasmussen Report. Plus 4 for Trump for a long time, now down to Plus 1. Pretty soon it will go negative for Trump.
Harris is doing everything she can to WIN, Trump is working overtime to LOSE. I wonder if the clipped ear was a wakeup call for him.
Andrew Gutterman …The polls are a moment time within a margin of error. What professional political analyst see is polling number that have to be taken with a degree of skepticism — because most stats are inside the margin of error. That is the pollsters saying even we are not sure of our numbers. Political pundits have to look past number to history and crystal balling the possible future trends. Harris got a bump entering the race. She did not get the expected bump from the highly promoted convention. That should worry Harris. The current numbers show Trump closing the gap … even if by small percentages within the margin of error. Historically, the Dem candidate needs to be ahead in the 10 point range at this time to win on Election Day. That is why such Harris supporter as Van Jones are waving yellow flags over the numbers. I think what you and most armchair observes do is calculate by wishful thinking. This is too close to call, of course. But Trump has his paths to victory. He is by far not down and out.
Larry,
You saw this?
https://www.newsnationnow.com/cuomo-show/historian-allan-lichtman-predicts-2024-presidential-race/
Andy
More Voters, Especially Women, Now Say Abortion Is Their Top Issue *https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/31/us/elections/abortion-polls-women-trump-harris.html* And by the way, that is not just young women. Older women with grand daughters are also voting for Harris because of this.
Donald J. Trump is shifting his stance on reproductive rights, but voters, by a wide margin, say that they trust Kamala Harris on the issue.
Larry, your info is wrong. That is why Trump has changed his stance like the chameleon he is. By the way, immigration was quite low which surprised me a bit.
Child care is child care.
Bring on the debates. Trump not practicing; ought to be a rambling man.
Think it is Harris’s to lose.
Aside; Two Americans in US Open final. Finally. One American down in women’s but great effort. Jessica will be back. One to go. Been a great open. Bet you all loved gay day with the Queer Big Apple Corps marching band and the subtle rainbow open colors. Heh, heh. Okympics was lgbtq proud too. You guys are off you boycott bans, you keep missing athletic support running rampant behind the scenes
Go American tennis! .
Two Americans lost in the Open final. Oh well, we have a good roster right now so it’s next Spring for the Australian!
Will be last year for Nadal if he makes it, Jocky is close to tge end, will be a men’s changing of the guard. Women’s is really hot with a new young competent field where we hope our young Navarro will rise to the top. A incredible consistent ground game, if she ups her service game, she will beat the polish top seed and may be able to beat the hard striking Russian too.