McCarthy’s departure is a great opportunity for the GOP

The current situation in the House is something between chaos and hysteria.  For the first time in American history, a Speaker of the House was ousted – and it came by the action of a small group of members of his own Republican Party.

How is it possible that eight out of 432 current members of the House can so dramatically overrule the majority?  It is simple.  They cannot.  They had to have the support of the entire Democrat membership.  Speaker McCarthy was voted out by a coalition of Democrats and a handful of Republicans.

Former Speaker Nancy Pelosi – who was not present for the vote – had said it is up to the majority party to elect a Speaker.  That may be her partisan opinion, but it is not true.  A Speaker of the House is voted upon by the ENTIRE body.  It is only a matter of pragmatic politics that comes from the majority based only on the votes of the majority.   In the name of solidarity, Democrats proved the most votes against McCarthy.  Even many Democrats believe that was a mistake.

According to McCarthy, Pelosi had promised him that if there was a Motion to Vacate, Democrats would have his back.  Apparently, that changed when McCarthy blasted Democrats on the Saturday before the vote.  Even the Democrat members of the Problem Solvers Caucus turned on McCarthy.

That is significant since it puts into the proper light the role of the Democrats.  Some of them could have crossed over to vote for McCarthy.  Why should they?  They readily conceded that the ousting of a Speaker would create chaos.  It would hold up the important work of Congress in solving critical issues.  It would put the future of funding for border security and Ukraine in question.  It would signal instability to American adversaries overseas.

They could have prevented all that.  Rather than avoid such negative outcomes, however, the Democrat caucus voted in lockstep to help create the chaos.  They put aside the needs of the nation to be able to create a POLITICAL problem for the other party.  But that is to be expected.  That is politics Washington-style.  I have no doubt Republicans would have done the same thing if the situation was reversed.  It is just that we should not be fooled into believing that such Democrats’ action was in the best interest of the nation.

While McCarthy’s ouster was historic, it needs to be kept in mind that he agreed to the rule that one member can call for the chair to be vacated.  That was historic, too.  In that past, only the leaders could make a motion to oust a speaker.  That was the rule under Pelosi – and the rule when Speaker Cannon called for a vote on his own leadership in 1910.  Under the new rule, any member could move to Vacate the Chair.  The fact that McCarthy agreed to it is another example of his boneheaded thinking.

Anyone who has followed my commentaries knows that I have never been a McCarthy fan.  At the time of his election as Speaker, I opined that he was not the right guy for the job –saying he lacked the strategic and communication skills necessary for the job.  The controversy and the resolution of the latest potential government shutdown was mishandled – another example of McCarthy’s failed leadership.

The fact that the faction led by Florida Congressman Matt Gaetz was successful does not mean that I am an admirer of his motives and actions.    The fact that he was largely right about the decades of dysfunction does not mean his crusade against McCarthy was the correct course of action – especially when it appears that much of the motivation was Gaetz’ personal animus against the Speaker.

Though I was not a fan of McCarthy, I accepted that the issue of Speaker was settled until the next Congress convenes in 2025.    And it should have been.

The reason that did not happen was because of an insane rule that one member of the House can force a vote on the speakership at any time for any reason.  It becomes a viable weapon when one party holds the majority by the slimmest of margins – in this case five votes.  Imagine if it was only a one vote majority.  A Matt Gaetz-type would not even have to find allies.  When the House reconvenes under the gavel of a new Speaker, the elimination of that rule should be one of the first orders of business.

In this moment of high tension, Democrats, Republicans and the media are all seeing a future of chaos and dysfunction in the House.  They say that the Republican Party will pay dearly in the 2024 election.  House deliberations will be chaotic until then.  Some wonder how Republicans can even elect a Speaker.  One reporter went so far as to say that the Republicans may never be able to elect a Speaker.  That is just hyperbolic sensationalized nonsense.  But that is the atmosphere of the moment.  It will pass.

The hyperventilating folks are ignoring the possibility that the Republican House members may elect a Speaker in short order – maybe even on a first ballot.  That prospect increased when McCarthy wisely took himself out of the running.  The fact that Congressman Jim Jordan and Scalise have both announced plans to run suggests that it may take more than one ballot.

For those who favor more than two viable political parties should learn from this situation.  In essence we had three interest groups, and it was necessary to create a governing coalition.  When that fails, the leader falls.  That is what happened to McCarthy.  He could not win over the opposition group in his own party – and he could not win over a handful of Democrats.  He could not put together a coalition.  Multi-party systems are by nature unstable.

It is more than a year before the American people head to the polls to elect a President and members of Congress.  By then, the commotion of the moment will be beyond even the rearview mirror. The more important issues will be on the voters’ minds.  The outcome of the 2024 elections depends on future events – not the present or the past.

Apparently, Acting Speaker Patrick McHenry immediately ordered Pelosi and Democrat Whip Steny Hoyer evicted from their private voices in the Capitol Building.  McHenry is an ardent supporter of McCarthy who showed his anger when he slammed down the gavel after announcing the vote.  Evicting Pelosi and Hoyer was a needlessly petty action by one member with the temporary power to be … petty.

The Republican Party has an opportunity to elect a popular Speaker with both the strategic and communication skills to unite the Republican Party and the nation.  Last January I had hoped that the House GOP would elect Louisiana Congressman Steve Scalise as Speaker.  I hope they will seize that opportunity again.

Scalise is very popular with virtually all the McCarthy members.  Following the vote that ousted McCarthy, Gaetz said that he could vote for Scalise – among other members.  South Carolina Democrat Congressman James Clybourn pointed to Scalise as a person his side could work with.  That sounds like a lot of potential respect and unity.

When the Republican caucus meets next week, we should already have some indication of their intentions.  I hope that Scalise is number one on that list of potential Speakers.

So, there ‘tis.