AI Rats On Itself – “eliminating the need for humans”
Artificial Intelligence is the latest advance in Internet technology – and undoubtedly the most controversial and scariest. It is not the first technology to conjure up an existential threat to mankind. We lived through that anxiety in the early years of the atomic age. The boon to the industrial age, fossil fuel, is now seen by many as threatening a human apocalypse.
So … is AI any different? Is it just another technology that engenders initial panic – but will be generally accepted with its benefits and drawbacks? Or is this something else – a unique threat to humankind in the long run?
We know it threatens jobs. But so did industrialization, automation, and robotics – and we adjusted to all that without much disruption. We gained the benefits, and the Draconian downsides failed to gain footing.
However, AI IS different. All of the human progress – the good and the bad – was in the hands of … humans. We were in control. Humans developed the technologies, and humans mitigated the problems. We had something no machine, technology, or Internet had – a brain that “thinks.”
AI is the first technology that … thinks. This commentary is much too short to cover all the implications of an artificial technology that thinks. In fact, it can outthink – and outperform – we mere humans.
In an earlier challenge, I asked AI to write an editorial in support of sending fighter jets to Ukraine. It delivered an excellent product in about 10 seconds. In that case, AI was obeying my instructions. But what if AI had a mind of its own – had its own goals.
That is not a new thought. It has been a staple of science fiction. Back in 1920, Czech writer Karel Čapek produced a play called “Rossum’s Universal Robots,” in which robots ruled. They could “think” and were developing “emotions” – love. In the “2001 Space Odyssey,” an onboard computer named HAL (each letter preceding IBM) took over the space station by its own will.
I wondered if AI, itself, would tell me the dangers of … AI. So, I asked it to write an editorial explaining the dangers of AI. This is what I got.
“Artificial Intelligence (AI) has been a topic of discussion for many years and has been a subject of both excitement and concern. While AI has the potential to revolutionize our lives in many ways, it also poses several risks and dangers that we should be aware of.
Some of the dangers of AI include:
- Job losses due to AI automation
- Social manipulation through AI algorithms
- Social surveillance with AI technology
- Biases due to artificial intelligence
- Widening socioeconomic inequality as a result of AI
- Weakening ethics and goodwill because of AI
- Autonomous weapons powered by artificial intelligence
- Financial crises brought about by AI algorithms
These are just some of the dangers that have been identified by experts in the field. It is important to note that these risks are not just theoretical but have already been observed in some cases.”
In a sense, AI has ratted on itself. One could write a commentary on each of the dangers to which AI confessed – and there are others that it did not reveal.
Many very intelligent people – including Elon Musk – have indicated the potential of AI eliminating the need for humans. There is no function that we perform that evolved AI cannot theoretically do. There is no reason that mechanically based intelligence cannot replace biologically based intelligence.
If you think that is impossible, consider this. Virtually everything upon which we depend for survival is already mechanically based. It is all hackable. It can be controlled by an intelligent force – even if that intelligence is artificial. Perhaps we are wrong to think of it as “artificial” intelligence. Maybe it is real intelligence – as real as ours.
I do not believe that we will see an apocalypse in the near future, but AI is already disrupting our security – our ability to discern between traditional reality and virtual reality. Is AI the proverbial Pandora’s Box that releases forces that cannot be restrained?
So, there ‘tis.
I have been down this road a number of times and have learned that often there is productivity improvements but hardly ever does it live up to it’s stated potential. Automated Office, Intelligent Universe, Client/Server, the Cloud, the Global Village, whatever. And while it seems to go faster each time, so far, it usually does not happen as soon as forecasted.
So, what is AI? Mips, plain and simple.
As puters get smaller, faster, etc., processing power increases as do the potential applications served. Basically puters add 1 plus 1 and tell you 2. They can then use that power to print a 2 or make a really cool movies with all sorts of FX that says: 2. As processing power increases, 2 can become War and Peace. In the beginning we had pong. Today we have virtual gaming in 3-D. It’s all Mips.
If you look at Larry’s AI story, the computer did what I basically do: as an idiot who knows nothing on a subject, I scan the mediasphere, pull relevant information, put it together as if I did it myself. I use mostly trusted sources, avoid the fringe sources, and can cobbler together a story pretty damned fast (as you probably have witnessed). Pretty basic stuff, takes a few minutes.
Heck, how many PBP stories are copy/paste/edit jobs? I can take anything in print and do a re-write to make it mine in like ten minutes. All I have is a basic grasp of the language to do this. What makes things human is the creativity we put on top to add: what does all this mean? where are we going? what’s next and when? If you notice, there’s not much of that in Larry’s AI stories, however, he could easily add that on top. At some point, the computers will take a shot at that BUT at first they will just pull others that have done it already.
I have made this description super simple so I can understand and left out all that coding that makes it possible which can be done well or shoddy and that’s what we are into as we proceed down this path. And remember, the strange part about coding is once you start, you build upon yourself, and at some point —– it’s hard to start over because there’s just so much code. At some point, most AI markets will mature in that fashion becoming evolutionary rather than revolutionary as they seem today.
But as Mips increase, and software matures, the ability to go beyond and actually “think,” will become reality. However, the ability to create, to invent, etc. will still be in the future from that. The only issue is when these things get smart enough to reproduce — then it’s terminator time, or something like that. Not to worry, not in our kid’s lifetime I would wager. But we will continue to head that way because Mips keep increasing meaning these things get smarter and smarter each time.
All in all, it’s a tool, a manmade tool. The Larry’s of the world will write faster and since it is easier, there will be more of them. And then there will be shake out and only the best will survive. The one’s who can frost the AI cake with insights will be the victors. For now.
I remember the days when I was first modern, had an idea, and needed management to give me budget. After assembling my business case using like 5 support folks, I would go to the print shop when 20 people would put together acetates, binders, and the like. Ten years later and these 25 people were gone and most would come out of my machine OR from the Xerox, all collated and bound, ready to disseminate.
Our factory went through the same thing and in the end was 10% of the size of the 70’s producing more product than ever as robots replace humans via this early form of AI.
So, in the future, I imagine I will deploy AI like Larry did, or more as it gets better, and basically just have more free time (hopefully not to write even more on PBP :>)
No biggee, just life.
Nice rant, Frank. And you probably (as usual) didn’t read the article. And AI is about neural networks, not about MIPs.
Good one Joe. Rant?
Mips are equivalent to horsepower in the computer world. You can increase the capabilities/intelligence without more horsepower, pretty simple.
Here’s why you are wrong on your “AI is about neural networks: https://www.ibm.com/cloud/blog/ai-vs-machine-learning-vs-deep-learning-vs-neural-networks. Hope it helps the confusion you have.
To match the human brain is about about 100 million MIPS of computer power. Computer that beat Kasparov in 97 had about 3 million Mips.
Of course the sw code, memory, storage, etc. will be just as important but without the horsepower, there is no AI. It is the root cause to make this happen. And AI needs a lot of horsepower.
Let’s put it altogether: *https://jetpress.org/volume1/moravec.htm* Gotta love the chart.
Like I said, seen it, felt it, been here a number of times before.
Nuff said.
No, Frank, even the worlds fastest computers are in no danger of “waking up” based on their MIPs. And the machine that beat Kasparov was not AI. Artificial Intelligence is a matter of a certain kind of software and that ability to load it will data and reasoning. You could add memory to an Atari 800 and it would still run, just more slowly.
Why do you insist on arguing foolishly with people who know more than you, and have actual real world experience. You read an article, wow!
Read the articles Joe. You are sounding stupid and you’re not. At least scan the articles; I am not off base
Frank, I have a master’s degree in engineering. I have a friend who runs one of the most advanced AI companies in the world. I have integrated IBM watson into applications, and I have the Stanford natural language processing software running on my laptop. I have a book on my shelf that was written in the 1990’s lamenting the instability of neural networks, not anticipating the the preprocess and backtesting methodologies invented in 2008 that actually made neural networks practical for development toward actual AI systems.
I don’t think your article is going to add much to my familiarity with the subject. And if I sound “stupid” it is probably not my problem.
Engineering is a wide field, what specialty?
And yes, hi tech wise, your dick is bigger than mine, tyvm.
Still does not make what I said wrong: read the articles, think the IBM one would be first.
Are not listening? Do you know what “integrated” means? or “running”?
So that’s your engineering fields integrated and running?
Those are new to me
Frank Stetson … You seem to think that AI is just a faster way to access information. No so. MIPS measures the performance of a computer’s processor — speed. Neural networks work much like neurons in the human brain. They are used in AI as a means for the computer to LEARN like the neurons in the human brain. That is a the scary part. You have used MIPS to access limited information to support your narrow or biased views, but you are not using your neurons to learn like AI does.
This AI discussion and computers that think discussion has been going on longer than most realize. Star Trek, Season 2, E 24 (1968) called “The Ultimate Computer” where the M-5 multitronic unit takes over the Enterprise and during simulated war games with three other ships it destroys the ship because ironically the genius that designed it never bothered programming into it the thought that simulated attacks were ok. And then Star Trek Generations has an episode called “The Quality of Life) Season 1 or 2, of a kid officer, Westley, who created nanobots that got loose and ran amuck on the ship, taking it over and building its own neural networks and running the ship. And then there was the episode called “Evolution” involving their Commander Data who was a machine with Neural Nets and showed us what the AI version of Joe Gilbertson would be like when he goes amuck. :>)
Tom … You are talking fiction, AI is real … and it is not just computer speed.
I know I am talking fiction Larry, but the point is that fiction spawns many inventions and inspires many dreamers and inventions. In the episode “The Ultimate Computer” the doctor who invented M-1 which failed and also evolved into M-5 had placed his thought processes and thought engrams into a high speed computer so the computer could think with speed. The point of the episode was to decrease the compliment on a Galaxy Class Starship while increasing the battle efficiency but it all comes at a human cost and that big mistakes can be made that can have catastrophic consequences.. Speed is a requirement of AI because of the massive number of operations that must be handled and data that must be processed is phenomenal. Memory is required to facilitate that speed. Mass data storage is required to facilitate the decision process.
The reason I choose to let AI policy and decisions to future generations is because I am very busy battling the current mess we all have created in hopes of making a few people’s lives a little better. I will let the AI stuff to future generations who will be better equipped to handle it than this old guy with his aged Electronic Engineering Design Technology degree that was earned in the age of mainframes, DOS, and Windows 2.0. and periodically updated because he worked for a massive technology company that Judge Green did not like, and that was stupid enough to sell off the mobile phone patent to GTE because their executives with their aged degrees thought that nobody would ever be interested in doing business over a phone in traffic. That was the outcome of their Los Angeles experiment.
Everything comes from Startrek. I saw Shatner once and he said it :>)
Actually one of my best nights. It was a screening of Wrath of Khan at NJPAC, one of the world’s best acoustic auditoriums. Shatner came out and talked and it was a stitch; the man is wild and he was basically just winging it. Stories of Star Trek poverty, living in his car to feed his family, and then the movies…. My goodness he was humorous.
And the movie —- it was like Khan ala Rocky Horror with the audience all boisterous, joining in, and of course, KHANNNNNing it up to raise the roof.
Wow, I am jealous. I went to two conventions that could not match up to what you experienced in NJPAC. It is amazing how many social issues Star Trek dealt with in a techno kind of way. AI, aging population, inter-racial kisses, war with no property destruction, greed, human manipulation, addiction, relations with Russia, and on and on! Sounds like you had a great time!
FYI Tom, I also have George Takei’s autograph and even though I arranged to hire him for an advertisement, arranged to be there for the shoot, damned needs of the business held me back but the kids brought the autographed picture back for me. Put it right next to my Tony Curtis and Joe Theisman, the last I got for my FIL and now inherited.
I am jealous again Frank! Please say no more. I can’t bear it!!!! Best I could do at our 1990’s convention was a great chat with Nichelle Nichols. She was a lot of fun. Great lady. Willy did not attend that convention. George did.
The problem is not with AI itself, the problem is that with AI machines, human workers are no longer needed, the global elites who are working to own and control everything, will no longer need us to do the work, 7 billion unemployed, starving people are very dangerous, so THEY are working to eliminate us (did you really think Covid was an accident?)!
If you take the top ten doctors from every field, set them down and get from them all of their medical expertise, put that in a data base, set up an expert system AI that can control 50 robots, you effectively just created 50 world class doctors! Same with lawyers, architects, engineers or ANY profession! So why do they need us? If you own a factory that can create ANYTHING you desire, a farm that can grow anything and an automated transportation system, what more wealth is there?
As a retired person who enjoys just watching his money role in, I really am not worried about AI. As a matter of a fact, I could care less. AI discussions are fundamentally boring as hell. I will leave this AI stuff for my son and grandsons to deal with. I have lived long enough to go through several cycles of hearing and reading that something, some gadget, some invention, will replace humans. And it has not happened yet. There will be plenty of jobs. More than likely, humanity will destroy itself well before it is rendered useless by some invention. Humans will always be needed to turn the wrench, unclog the toilet, sweat the pipes, wash the dishes, paint walls, tow cars, repair computers, repair the car, and do many other things that require skill and pay decent wages. Truth is, if you are 60 years old or older, you are already being viewed as useless. So why should any of us care about AI.
Tom … You selfish and heartless disregard for future generations is breath-taking. My entire reason for being is to provide a better world for my children and grandchildren — and yours too. I have often criticized our generation as the greediest in history — having consumed more natural and financial recourses than any generation in the history of the world. We have used massive debt to feather our nests and stuck the kids with the bill for generations to come. Your post typifies that sad reality. As long as your money rolls in, you could care less. Shame on you.
Ahhh Doppelganger Larry is at it again! Well that’s ok. His empty and felonious criticisms bounce off of me. Just because I like to see money rolling in does not make me shameful. You do the same with every PBP article you write. And it is no crime to like to see your money rolling in. I do plenty of good with that money. I never said I stash it all away as your comment rudely and stupidly suggests. Actually I use a fair amount of it to help people with health conditions that have been screwed by GOP “Repeal and Replace”, I help by contributions to churches, I give free lectures and aging advice and free care planning, I help neighbors maintain their properties at no cost to them during their cancer treatments when they need something fixed and do not have the energy to fix it, I funded two people from China last year who claimed religious asylum last year and did much research for them for their case, support homeless shelters, two weeks ago a lady had trouble buying her food and baby supplies so I put her bill on my bill at the grocery store, and starting later this year will create a website to offer all of my assessments on aging conditions for free to those younger generations (that you claim I do not help) take care of their parents and bring down the cost of aging in place and the cost that families pay for advice, I tutor people in mathematics for free, I build homes with Habitat for Humanity in my local area, etc. etc. etc.
Larry you really do need to read past the first three lines of my post to see the reasons that I care less is that there will still always be jobs, just the type of jobs and number of those jobs will change – so why worry about it! AI is already in widespread use in the medical and insurance industry, so why worry about it. I will let the future generations worry about AI and make policy because they are the ones that will have to deal with it, not me. Why should they have to be constricted by an old guys fear of AI that got translated to the policy and vote – and written about (monetized) by an older yet guy on PBP who just wants to make money off of the topic.
Talking heads like you who make money being talking heads like to get everyone upset over things such as AI, politics, Pro-Life versus Pro Choice and Abortion ideological discussions that will never have a resolution when the real issue being discussed should be things like successful pregnancy outcomes for women that include all of the tools of both sides! That is what you should write about if you actually had more interest in humanity than you do in monetizing controversy!! You are such a hypocrite Doppelganger Larry! You are a clanging symbol when you attack and cast shame on and judge someone you do not know just like your Fuhrer Herr Trump!
Give me back that nice lovable and kind Larry that NEVER liked his Fuhrer Trump!!! :>)
While I am a family man with the same feelings as Larry, and a community man but different than Larry, I also know the true meaning and value of money and completely understand Tom’s sentiment.
Words to live by (do not be drinking liquids when watching, there may be laughter spew)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XamC7-Pt8N0
Tom … You defend watching the money roll in, but my response was was provoked more by the “I could care less.” My response was to what you wrote. If you wish to say you misspoke or were out of sorts at the moment … okay I will accept you regret. But you made a very uncaring (your term) statement — and your nasty wounded response to me did not express any regret. And the Nazi reference is the classic over-used low blow of American politics. Again, shame on you.
Hahahaha, Larry, you are like the pot calling the kettle black! But I love you anyway!!!
And I meant that I could care less, because I really do not care. I care much more about successful outcomes for pregnant women who need a broad range of solutions from both sides of the ideological divide then I do about AI. AI has been in medical / healthcare industry for years and you do not hear them complaining. AI has been medical insurance company platforms for years, and you do not hear anyone complaining. Its also been in E-commerce, Food Tech, Banking and Financial Services, and again, I hear no complaints from any of them. So if none of them are complaining, then why should I care? I will live with it and work with it as necessary, and I will not worry about it. Let the better equipped younger generation care about it and make the rules. For the few years I have left I will follow their lead. That is why I say very simply, “I could care less.” You for some reason inside your damaged heart seem to equate my statement with not caring about younger generations, my son, my grandson, Franks grandkids, your grandkids and nothing could be further from the truth!
With regard to your failed attempt at seizing the moral high ground and driving guilt when you say, “and your nasty wounded response to me did not express any regret. And the Nazi reference is the classic over-used low blow of American politics. Again, shame on you.” let me just say three things: 1) My initial response did not mention you or insult you in any way. It was your alter ego Doppelganger Larry who chose to attack me with unsubstantiated lies about me and assertions of how I do not care about future generations!. Where was nice guy, kind Larry you brag about? So you deserve what you got. Attack me again and I will give you more. 2) Nobody has made more vicious attacks against moderate and liberal thinkers than you. 3) Trump’s original family name was the German name Drumpf, they changed it to Trump. He is German! And in German, the word Fuhrer means “leader”. And many of your ideas have a bit of, or are at least presented with, a bit of a fascist overtone, so the comment was appropriate. In this case of this particular blog, you, Trump, and Hitler have something in common, you each attack people that did not attack you.
But Larry, I am a strong believer in humanity, and in you! I believe you can mend your ways and I feel pretty certain you do not like having multiple personalities. So I am always available if you wish to talk. I like helping seniors feel relevant again.
+1 Larry
Lucky you, “rolling in,” I’m going with trickle over the past year :>) If it wasn’t for tax sheltering, I would be behind inflation….
I agree, however, while in the end highlander, there will always be jobs, during times of rapid evolution while the system will reach equilibrium, many individuals may suffer along the way. Plus, we tend to myopically look at the from the US as if we are the center of the globe (true), and others don’t matter (not true).
So, in my example, everyone got a job, but those 20 people in the print room had some anxious moments, and some suffered. When I started I had a team of secretaries to type my stuff (dictation cuz we was modern), set meetings, get travel, basically hand hold me allowing me to avoid low paying tasks and focus on high revenue returns. Then I had one secretary for ten people, then we “automated” and it was a bitch. Matter of fact, at that point only our group lead had one and luckily our group lead was cool, and found one who was expert at working the travel so we at least maintained that for awhile. Really made a difference in productivity and QoL. Happy workers = more productivity and all that. Again, the system was fine, but individuals felt pain.
Same thing with inflation and recession: system will be fine, it will obtain equilibrium but individuals suffer along the way.
By the time I was finished, I would be rolling down the highway using text to speech to get my email, replying with speech to text in universal messaging. I could set up meetings via automated meeting center, travel via automated travel center. Pretty much I could do my communications, written and elsewise, and reservations from my car on the way to work. All I can say is those early yaers of using dictation really paid off :>) Then, having global teams, I went virtual and ran my office out of my bedroom. At that point, very few humans needed for support. Pre-TRUMP, I could begin to write-off many of my home expenses, life was good.
For decades, the US has been trying, and failing, at moving out of the industrial age into the information age and — even based on today’s society, there is still some pain. But to remain competitive globally, we will need to move beyond the information age and into the age of creativity. IOW — those who create will thrive, those who service creativity will survive turn the crank will be alive.
Otherwise we will be eaten alive in that there’s always someone to work the factory and ask for less pay than in the US. Thriving as a factory worker in an information-based society will be tougher and tougher going forward. If it ain’t Japan, it’s SK, then China, and tomorrow — Vietnam? There’s always somewhere.
Creativity is a mystery today. There are treatises, etc. on the subject but there is no manner to create with a process, like rolling cars off Henry Ford’s factory line. We still believe it’s a magic spark bestowed on special individuals who rise above to succeed in invention. We need to create the process, starting from early education through production as standard as today’s industrial production.
To do so will take a revolution starting from education to production. It’s an awesome task. But creativity, creation, innovation, and invention will be where the money is in the future. And not just some smart guys, but a smart process instead. These are the ones who will thrive in tomorrow land.
Below that, and perhaps equal in take home will be skilled service workers and craftsman, to your point — someone to do the plumbing. Even though working for the innovators, they will be able to garner equal or better wages. BUT while owners will be in a good place, below them and in other service businesses will be service workers and based on today’s minimum pay, they might stay alive, but they probably don’t thrive in the future anymore than today. This may represent a problem if minimum wage keeps failing behind other pay scales.
If we don’t move forward in our economy past the information age, we will lose to other global competitors.
Using Larry’s AI as an example, it’s basically Henry Ford rolling a story off the factory line. It has value, but without a creative edge, he will lose against creative competition. It will be the creativity that the Larry’s of the world add that will take them from survive to thrive. Dumpster, Allass, they don’t have a chance :>) Get it? Nothing personal in this folks, we are all in the same boat in this regard. In my business we had “lifecycle support,” the folks who maintained legacy stuff. We had release management, the folks who put out new packages for legacy. And we had new product rollout, the starfuckers who invented new stuff. Guess where the money was? I mean all was good, one was better. Guess where I was: it was tiring though. Yeah, I rolled out more creations, innovations, and inventions than Carter has pills. My favorite saying was: give me lifecycle or give me death. Kept rolling death, but the perks were great!
So, I agree, AI is just a new tool to do old things faster. But I add where the money will be in the creative “wrapper” that writers incorporate. Those who copy/paste this stuff will survive, but those who embellish with creative additions will thrive. If I use MSBC as a surrogate — Rachel thrives, the rest survive. You can read the news to survive, those who make the news with thrive. AI is just a tool in all that.
Now that’s a rant Joe :>)
Frank Stetson …. Yes, a loooong rant, but you still do not understand AI. You say, “AI is just a tool to do old things faster.” You could not be more wrong. And I would be careful in saying someone “sounds stupid” when you are doubling down on being stupid..
Really? What did it do that was new, different, and better than what you do?
But it was faster.
Actually Frank, you have a very good point worthy of additional consideration. Most AI that I know of, and that is mostly medical/health care industry and financial industry, AI relies on super huge data bases which are really nothing more than active and accessible archives of knowledge already learned, and historical compilations of decisions already made, and results already document. In essence, AI saves us the many hours for us to access the same knowledge, decisions, and results. Even when AI extrapolates or goes into the hypothetical realm, it is doing so with already gained knowledge and trends within its programming and accessible super databases.
So in essence, because you and I would take hours, maybe even days to determine what AI can determine in ten minutes, you are correct. It has not done anything new since new would mean it is not yet within the super databases that AI is dependent upon. And it certainly does things faster as Larry proved by his Jets for Ukraine article. I would add, it has added convenience but has not added accuracy, since not all databases deal exclusively in fact such as social databases, and of course, Joe Gilbertson.
So yes, your comment is correct. One day, I am sure AI will be able to integrate independent thoughts into a brand spanking new product, or strategy or process. For this kind of task, neural networks will be the best choice as the information needed by AI can be more conveniently stored in and manipulated with neural networks – but this will take highly specialize people to do this type of system creation, not the general engineering students such as you know who with initials JG who has a friend that he repeats, and a book he reads.
in looking at this, perhaps I misspoke and should have said: “TODAY, AI is just …..
And Larry, when you say “And I would be careful in saying someone “sounds stupid” when you are doubling down on being stupid..” you are correct, sir, my bad. However, I did say “sounds” YOU FUCKING SAID “being stupid.” DICK.
Sorry, just responding in kind to something that really sounded like name calling.
I agree Frank. And very well said when you say, “Those who copy/paste this stuff will survive, but those who embellish with creative additions will thrive. ” And I agree that we must start with the education system, and the more people we have in a great education system, the more minds that we will have to thrive as a nation, rather than just survive as a people. This will be a hard dream to sell when all the other sides seems to bring to the table is spending cuts and tax breaks for today’s wealthy thrivers.
Yes I must admit Frank, the roll was a bit slower this year, but it was still acceptable. I feel your pain!
I am grateful to Larry for highlighting AI —- might be some good returns there, albeit risky.
If this stuff works, it can serve some needs currently human resource intensive.
My search begins!
I agree Frank, AI can unburden the labor intensive aspects of research and allow results to be seen quicker. I have nothing against AI, I simply do not have much of an opinion on it. Its in use every day. Its a productivity tool to me, and nothing more at this point.
Tis wider than just research.
Like always, look where many humans are used that can be replaced or augmented by technology. I don’t know much about current applications but I gather wherever their are large numbers of humans accessing numerous databases, it may have play. But my learning is just beginning. Don’t know everything like some on this one. Will take my time, investing in high tech should take a lot of time; plus my fixed assets are timed, and won’t be liquid for a few months. No hurries, no worries…
Larry Horist: no, I think faster computers are needed to provide AI and that it’s almost a natural evolution of current code PLUS enough Mips to allow such code to do these cool things.
AI and neural networks are connected but two different things. Like Joe, I suggest you read the IBM piece to understand the four elements in all of this, AI being one, neural networks being another and the other two are Deep Learning and Machine Learning.
Narrow and biased views — wtf are you even talking about — there ain’t no politics here yet. Even Joe’s “the sw it all be liberal” is just because conservatives no can code :>) just kidding, it’s just early yet.
I tend to be simple and simple says: without the Mips, there’ ain’t no AI. I mean, for example, wanna bet the NSA is well beyond AI because they got 1) the money 2) more Mips than God, and 3) coders. Meanwhile, for the rest of us, we will need more power and with power comes more higher level applications. It’s the root of all this.
What I conclude is that as we get more power, applications advance, and as Tom mentions, we already know what we want to do.
Myself, —- I want holographic, interactive plays and movies in my family room from my virtual holographic terminal that floats in the air. Gonna need a bigger Mip for that shark says Dreyfus.
Not sure why you all seem to be arguing — it’s just some ideas I have. I did provide support supporting my ideas; maybe you should actually read it before your next comment. Unless, of course, you already know it. All.
PS: give Tom a break. You read him often. Can’t you tell he was a little off center on this one about watching the cash come in. Don’t you know him better than that. Seems you could have softened that with a “seems like” instead of a wtf-is-wrong-with-you attitude. It was unlike you, maybe your were thrown by his off-center response. I am sure he’s as family and community sensitive as you, although none of us has done the amount you have. It’s impressive.
Joe squawks: “You can you put yourself in Frank’s category, this article is not for you.” Geez Joe, I had not even posted to it and your knickers are severely knotted. Xanax man, take your Xanax…. :>) And banning your own post, strange days dude. You champion free speech but not free read?
Joe is crying because I said: “So, what is AI? Mips, plain and simple.” It appears to have greatly offended his engineering mind. The basic premise is that with more horsepower, you get more applications that require more horsepower. They are usually cooler applications. Joe the engineer thinks this is a silly proposition. Silly Joe. Throughout his rants, he adamantly refuses to read any source material because he is too smart, already has AI all over the place, and actually knows HAL. Not exactly open mindedness. Or curious. Just yellow.
He then brilliantly explains: “ AI is about neural networks, not about MIPs” when indeed these are two different, yet connected things that the IBM article that Joe skipped clearly defines, but Joe knows better than IBM. And FYI, Joe, both AI and neural networks need a lot of processing power.
Then Joe adds: “No, Frank, even the worlds fastest computers are in no danger of “waking up” based on their MIPs. And the machine that beat Kasparov was not AI.” Joe, Deep Blue is AI, jfgi. Not sure what Joe means by waking up or why it is quoted, but if he is referring to computers becoming sentient and reproducing or building new ones, well, I said: “But as Mips increase, and software matures, the ability to go beyond and actually “think,” will become reality. However, the ability to create, to invent, etc. will still be in the future from that. They will become sentient someday, it’s actually natural. And if you are sentient, the prime directive is survival. The only issue is when these things get smart enough to reproduce — then it’s terminator time, or something like that. Not to worry, not in our kid’s lifetime I would wager. But we will continue to head that way because Mips keep increasing meaning these things get smarter and smarter each time.”
I still stand by that and nothing Joe has said changes my view, yet. Except when he lowered himself by calling me a ……
“Why do you insist on arguing foolishly with people who know more than you, and have actual real world experience.” Chutzpah! I can’t speak to AI, probably got me there, but as to high tech in general, high tech evolution, creating high tech, inventing in high tech, selling high tech, lifecycle high tech, good luck saying your “actual real world experience” holds a candle. You won’t even divulge your engineering specialty.
Then he quizzes me: “Are not listening? Do you know what “integrated” means? or “running”?” Sure, integrated is the opposite of what Larry says exists in Democratic cities. Running, sure, just don’t do it while black. Do I win?
What type of engineering specialty was that?
Frank Stetson … You wrote, “I still stand by that and nothing Joe has said changes my view, yet.” There is your problem. You are not educable. And it is not just about AI. But in terms of AI, you and Tom simply do not understand it — and its fundamental difference to all other technologies. It is not just faster computing. In the past, all technological advancements were operated by the human mind. AI is the first technology that mimics human thinking. in a very real sense, it has a mind of its own, The ability to create a unique decision based on its understanding of information — more information than our brains can handle. When Tom says it is not important to him, he does not understand the magnitude of the potential problem. And mocking of Joe’s enormous knowledge of electronic engineering and computer science is nothing more than a determined dedication to ignorance.
Actually Larry, Frank and I have been involved with AI and I have been involved in the manufacture of AI components. I think we know more about AI than you think. And why do you think just because I really do not care about AI, that I do not understand the magnitude of the problem? I am very aware of the benefits and dangers of AI. And I do not care because I am comfortable with both, and how to mitigate those dangers and risks. I have used AI systems for years and not had a problem, its nothing new to me. AI is a very mixed bag, and it is an ideological discussion that will have no resolution. And I am more concerned about you publicly shaming me and bullying me when all I did was state that I did not care about AI, and was not attacking you – you were stifling free speech, something you claim to be very concerned about. And then you expect me to apologize to you?? HA!!! Not going to happen unless I first get your apology for cyber bullying and public shaming! Are you ready? And if you continue shooting at me, I will shoot back! Now if you want to talk about moral issues, spiritual issues, and sensible policy connected with AI, and how to prevent the dangers, fine, lets talk that. But this ridiculous discussion about speed, Mips, neural nets, all gets nowhere!
And by the way, your last comment proves Frank’s previous point when you say, ” AI is the first technology that mimics human thinking.” Please look up the definition of the word “mimics”!!! It means to “imitate” which implies there is an “original”. . And how is it imitating? It is imitating based on prior programing, logic circuits, software comparison instructions, data bases where the original thought has already been documents and is accessible within the system architecture and those databases it accesses – so AI is not doing anything new, it is “imitating” or “mimicking” what has already been done, which is Frank’s point! Frank asked the question, What does AI do that is new? You did not answer him. Answer, right now, nothing. All AI does is produce what is called “derivatives” which means its product relies on the underlying commodity, set of facts, established rules and instructions, blah blah blah – in other-words, a derivative is nothing new!!! And this is what I perceive is Frank’s point! Honestly, I will not offend you or bully you or shame you by say9ing you are not educable. But I do personally believe there are gaps in your knowledge on such subjects as product derivatives as well as system architecture.
Another discussion that may be useless is just how much different AI is from other technologies. In the 1970’s I was designing computer routines for picking winners at Penn National Race Track (horse races) where I put all of my knowledge and how I decide winners, and all of the factors I considered, into a program (using Pascal, then C and then C+ later) to select the winner for me based on the stats database that I made from published horse race results newspapers. So yes, all the way back in the mid 1970’s I was writing programs that mimic my human thought and used fast computers, databases, Ethernet networking systems, all to make decisions for me, while you were working in national politics, and Joe was not yet born! And processing speed, I/O speed, discrete passive and reactive component response time speeds, output speed and internal memory sizes were all important factors in how long it would take to get results. And I worked in these kinds of endeavors for thirty years, including the US Navy IUSS SOSUS program for thirteen years – and somewhere along the way Joe was born.
And lastly, with regard to “caring about my children, grandchildren, future generations, yes I care deeply and I invest my thoughts and energy where they are best used and produce the best results – and AI is not one of those areas for me. I prefer to let young folks who will have to live with AI their whole lives make the decisions. I am happy to talk with them about the moral and ethical issues, good uses and bad uses, benefits and dangers of AI, but I will let them mold the policies and laws for the use of AI. They are much better equipped than me to do the job – and I care so much about them that I will give them the space to do the job however they want to do it, and I will just be there if they need someone to talk to and understand the evolution. I am very well equipped to discuss the history and development of electronics and sofware (and the hardware – software development cycle) from vacuum tubes and first computer ENIAC, to AI technology.
Stop the bus: I have no AI experience, haven’t used it. Components — well, similar stuff but way-underpowered for this shit in my time.
My point has been this is the next BBD; I have seen these BBDs many times, and mips form the foundation, they always deliver short of expectations, take longer, but can be really cool in the long run —- and who knows, someday our grandchildren may see sentient versions even, who knows.
I’m in and someday will be all in once I can find my pick.
My apologies, I did not mean to assign work to you that you did not do. I thought you worked with technology companies doing management and quality consulting and production consulting. My bad.
I am the same as you, I am in and enjoy systems that are using AI. And I will add that I will be all in when I see applications that can benefit me. We already use some systems that employ AI and seamlessly help us to accomplish our task such as financial investment programs, health care programs, search programs, etc. I see the benefits so I use it. I just today was watching a news segment on dating apps and use of AI to construct dating bios and first discussions with a potential date. I am on the fence on this application because while it helps those that have trouble with first opening conversations, AI can also present a false image of the person to the target person. So to put it another way, Larry could with the use of AI become “Reverend Larry” despite hos true self admitted details of not being spiritual. This is where we must be careful and do diligence before we believe all of the results of AI. Also I have previously mentioned in Larry’s first AI article that all AI generated articles should have an ownership line that states the document is the product of AI, what human edited it for truth, and were any social databases used. Larry never responded to my caring proposition on this subject.
Tom … You make me laugh. Cyber Bullying. My, how tender our our leaves. Sounds to me like typical liberal self victimization. And you have the audacity to whine after all the smarmy crap, insults, mocking, prevarications that you and Frank toss my way. You are the personification of chutzpah. I am impressed with your involvement int he past. I worked for the phone company when we had rotary dials. Does not make me an expert in modern telegraphy, however. You were certainly not working on AI in days of vacuum tubes. Your snide remark about Joe being born when you were dealing with floppy disks and Pong seems gratuitous and irrelevant. Are you suggesting that no one younger than you can be more intelligent than you? And finally .. spare me your pseudo intellectual word games. It reinforces you snobbish image — especially since “mimic” is a perfectly appropriate word for the occasion.
“No reason to get excited. The thief, he kindly spoke. There are many here among us. That think life is but a joke.”
Dylan
You’re correct, I am not “educable.” Especially by the likes of you for spelling.
Congrats: you made Wikipedia!
“It is not just faster computing. In the past, all technological advancements were operated by the human mind. AI is the first technology that mimics human thinking. in a very real sense, it has a mind of its own, The ability to create a unique decision based on its understanding of information — more information than our brains can handle.” You are right, I do not comprehend. Then, again who could?
RE: Joe. So, he’s has his masters in electronic engineering and computer science engineering. How nice. I did not mean to mock, I just asked. That’s my curious side, plus just saying you have a masters in engineering means dilly squat, agriculturally engineering would not be a free pass here for example.
I think you guys are getting overly upset over nothing and when Tom or I push back against the totally emotional aspect of your replies, you double down which does not increase the understanding of the topic.
Harvard Business Review disagrees with your statement above: “In our view, AI still has a long way to go in making the ultimate decisions in real-world life situations that require more holistic, subjective reasoning. It still is merely a factual engine that acts based on probabilities and scores, mostly based on historical data, with no context of the implications of the information it is delivering. AI may make the right decisions based on facts, but may lack the empathy that needs to be part of those decisions. We still need humans in the middle to assess the value of insights and decisions to the welfare of humans, businesses and communities. AI can help with providing decision-making points, but humans must still be involved in making that decision – ultimately, it needs to be augmented intelligence instead of pure artificial intelligence.”
Or in layman’s terms: byte me.
I have no problem thinking this is the next BBD, have said I am even on the investment trail, and thanked you, you schmuck, so again, thanks for the heads up.
Just don’t know why your panties are all bunched over my saying that these things come with more computing power, more mips. That seems pretty basic. Just not sure why the hissy fit. Heck, today’s technology must be server or cloud based, some joke that you will need your own power plant and the AI carbon footprint will destroy the world. Now that’s power, Spanky.
I see this stuff as way cool, certainly will be in our future, and as I said, is a natural evolution of more mips, more processing power, as we have seen in the past. Often delivers short, takes longer, but will be way cool. It is the BBD.
Don’t think it’s putting you out of business soon, but it will find others.
I agree Frank, totally. And thanks for that Harvard Business Review quote. Pretty much that quote matches much of what we have been saying. And like you, I think AI is the bees knees! I like it and have worked systems that use it for years and years! I think we all understand the benefits of AI. I just wish Larry would give us a little more credit for knowing the dangers and downsides of AI as well as rudimentary knowledge of AI structure and requirements instead of just cyber bullying us. Seems to me like we as long time readers and fans of Larry should be entitled to respect for our opinions and fruitful dialogue.
Yes, on this one, for my posts, it seems they are arguing for the sake of arguing. However, I have worked with very little, except volunteer stuff, for years. I retired quite early so I could “work for free.”
I am pretty old school — while sometimes I opt for the BBD, I more often live by the rule — if I need a user guide, I don’t need the thing.
However, whenever I buy computers, I buy the most mips I can as well as all the other components. Like my cars, I love horsepower, the more the merrier. Has served me well.
Once I had a prototype laptop, ASUS, early 80’s, and compared to my Compaq Portable, it was heaven. Green screen. Lasted for years, became my Mom’s starter unit, and funny thing, when it broke, going to repair it, I snapped the pressure-fit clamshell case and the damn thing sprung open pushed by a ton of compressed spaghetti wire. They had breadboarded the guts and had wires everywhere that would be replaced by circuits in the final design. EOS for that sucker, couldn’t even close the case…..
Yes I agree, I love hp too! That is why I have a Corvette. But I like mpgs as well, so I owned a Prius. Yes back in the 1980’s, Fuji machines were not yet available, nor was silver solder paste and all of the hardware and software needed to build mother boards like today. A lot of it was breadboading usually it was circuit boards with manual insertion and wiring. The wiring was 24 gauge kynar often called SPOFHC which stands for Silver Plated Oxygen Free High Conductivity wire. Very expensive stuff. I was a quality manager of a factory that made that stuff for Western Electric out of Texas. I had a TI 99/4, remember them? Best case of poor marketing ever! Great computer that was horribly marketed so it failed on the market about the time TI started making their calculator (TI-55 I think) that had a magnetic card you inserted for extra calculating hp! Love hp!!!
oh my that’s scary: I had a turbo wrx, an insight and a really old f150 at 10mpgs but —- freaking 350 vortex engine that I rarely stomp on, but again, oh my — it’s awesome. I put an f350 grill on it and it looks cooler than most of that era. was chasing a deer in the back field and the deer/tree branch won. Mechanics called me “the deer hunter” after that. I bought my insight, off the line, from Japan in first production runs, but bought another from America for my MIL. Japan got 50mpg, America 45mpg, but I think MIL, a leadfoot, so funny, might have screwed the pooch in that they seem to “mature” as you drive getting more mileage and I think her stomping on it may have lowered the curve. Still drive it and the 25-year old 150 today, but alas —- the wrx is history. Two before the wrx was the xt 6 cylinder, what an engineering marvel, and nightmare. I love it even after putting out the fire….. Finally launched it right into the back door of a work van, fucker pulled out on me in the snow, my — the passenger’s eyes got so big…. Freakin cop wrote it up as “act of God,” shit I would have hit him on a dry sunny day. wrx is much faster though. but the xt adjusted height, air shocks, according to speed and weight. Never got over the “hey, you’re too fat” hiss upon leaving the car :>)
fyi — wrx blows the vet away…….for the first quarter mile…..I tried it. mostly weight issue.
Western Electric, gotta love factory humps, factory guys love me, found me “plain speaking and earthy.” Nope, can’t place TI, hard to remember what I had. So many, so little time. Like I said, new product guy, we got new stuff every year or so, new budget, new stuff, sinful sometimes. Vendors were always giving us betas, no issue with connecting to the network then. Often I would just go to Development and say: “get me what’s hot and buy one for yourself too” so didn’t much remember what I had last year…… fun, funky, stressful times at times.
Wonder why Joe won’t call out his engineering specialty? Well, pretty sure it’s the sheep syndrome, but still……
I would ask Larry and Joe to review, but why bother.
I googled: “how many more MIPS does AI require” and the response was: *https://www.google.com/search?q=how+many+more+MIPS+does+AI+require&rlz=1C1CHBH_enUS923US923&oq=how+many+more+MIPS+does+AI+require&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i546l4.13543j1j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8*
I rest my case and perhaps Joe should ask for his Master’s money back :>) (let’s just go with I write poorly, use too many words, and confused you as to my confused meaning. FYI — this stuff never went well with my engineering folks either, they get lost in the aura and ignore the boring foundational aspects. Give me enough computing power and an addictive application on which to place it, and I shall move the world. FYI: the answer is holographic 3D sex with haptic motion recliners) I’m gonna move you BABY.
For this one, I open a new ranking, just for Larry.
SPANKED
I still say this is the coolest stuff and thank Larry for calling it to attention. Sorry if I bunched your knickers by saying “all you need is mips, bah, de, bah, all you need is mips, all together now….. IMO, AI is the BBD for now, ChatGPT is the mouse that roars, and what we see is tip of the iceberg stuff. Search engines are dinosaurs awaiting extinction, and what’s next?
Fraank Stetson … are you just trying to double down on your losing argument or do you really not understand AI? You seem to think that it is ONLY a matter of faster computing. Yes, AI does require faster computers, but it uses it to function in a totally unique manner beyond just computer speed and data retrieval. In its advanced form, it can make decisions and act on them. All past computer function are controlled by the human mind … input, output, access. Even the algorithms are the product of human intelligence. AI goes beyond that — something you and Tom seem unable or unwilling to grasp. Think HAL.
“Yes, AI does require faster computers, ” and all I am saying is the reverse. with the advent of faster computers, you get more sophisticated applications like AI.
At it’s core, it was that simple. I just am flummoxed at your emotions on this since you ain’t proving anything.
Get over it, move on.
You remind me of Reed Hunt’s, FCC head under Clinton, story as he was pitching woo about the wonders of the internet while presenting to a large crowd in Ireland. Reed told us as he was extoling all the wonderful things the internet would bring us creating the global village, he heard in an Irish brogue from the back: “Mr. Hunt, can you tell me Sir, when will the internet be able to pour me a Guinness.” I have his autographed book, can’t wait for yours. Cuz I won’t pay over $20 at Amazon for a book……
“Yes, AI does require faster computers, ” and all I am saying is the reverse. with the advent of faster computers, you get more sophisticated applications like AI.
At it’s core, it was that simple. I just am flummoxed at your emotions on this since you ain’t proving anything.
Get over it, move on.
You remind me of Reed Hunt’s, FCC head under Clinton, story as he was pitching woo about the wonders of the internet while presenting to a large crowd in Ireland. Reed told us as he was extoling all the wonderful things the internet would bring us creating the global village, he heard in an Irish brogue from the back: “Mr. Hunt, can you tell me Sir, when will the internet be able to pour me a Guinness.” I have his autographed book, can’t wait for yours. Cuz I won’t pay over $20 at Amazon for a book……
FYI — if you equate today’s or even tomorrow’s AI with HAL, you are smoking something.
PS: just had some stone crabs delivered from your region. My first, and I will say: marvelous. Paid for it will my BUD sales.
Frank Stetson …. When Tom said that you had experience with AI, you properly corrected him. Since then you have repeatedly proven your inexperience and lack of knowledge. Game. Set. Match.
Did you have something to discuss OR are you just at the point where you can only toss weak timid insults?
Is there a purpose to this beyond a lame attempt to make me feel bad.
“Yes, AI does require faster computers, ” says Horist.
I have admitted I know nothing, today, about AI. You have already confessed that I have a point and completely reversed yourself. Got a point there? Or is it all about your game and your needs for set, and match? Because there was not much point in your original tirade to begin with. Much ado about nothing on this one, Spanky.
Or do you just want to continue acting like a dick.
“I googled: “how many more MIPS does AI require” and the response was: *https://www.google.com/search?q=how+many+more+MIPS+does+AI+require&rlz=1C1CHBH_enUS923US923&oq=how+many+more+MIPS+does+AI+require&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i546l4.13543j1j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8*”
Gotta love those Stone Crabs though, and the folks at Captain Stone Crab are incredibly nice. Miami is cool but for the life of me, can’t remember why I was there…..that’s when you know it’s too much time on the road, again…..
Yes I agree, thanks to Larry for bringing the topic to light.
I read the article. It was a good article, very informative. I do disagree that AMD is the leader now. Last month (I think) Intel announced a new chip that blows away anything AMD has (at least that is what the tech talking heads say). So we will see. The article makes a very good point at what I have always done when I spec out a computer to be built for me. I look at what I will be doing the next 5-10 years and specify the components that will match that. I also try to extrapolate how much bigger the programs will be in 5 years or so, as well as graphic requirements. And this was one of the big points of the article, to think in advance what you want to use AI for. Example: Computational AI use versus Graphic Analysis (such as telemedicine where you send pics to the doctor or to a computer). This will determine CPU or GPU requirements for the intended use. Good stuff. I hope Larry will read the article.
Yes sex sells. Holographic sex might be a great way to combat stress induced ED. By the way, in all of this, did Joe ever answer you as to what his masters is actually in?
Well this was a fun one! See you in the blogosphere!
I agree, Intel rules and wouldn’t mess with them….
Joe, yes, He’s bates engineer. He has a Master Bates; chronic too. :>)
NO actually Joe has demurred on an answer: tis his right. As is ours to needle him about it. Good thing he can take it….ok, no more needling…….
I have spec’d it out for investment, have a plan, AI is a long-term growth equity play for me — so more risk than usual, but think I can mitigate given my strategy. Think it’s my initial ploy for spending once these fixed assets free up. Wish I could share, or discuss, but not here. Really appreciate Larry for pointing this out; I missed it. ChapGPT is so hot it’s moving the market already and it’s not even listing. Hate when I miss that. My wife pointed out: “yeah, I knew that….” grrrrrrr.
I agree, this one was fun, learned a lot, but only know a little, will know more soon, although not at the level of Joe who must be richer than Gates because he’s so ed u catered.
Hey, my spell checker just decided to suggest I use another word.
Wow, I gots AI….
:>)