
<p>As I predicted in previous commentaries, a conviction in the New York trial was more than likely. It was based on two major factors – the jury pool and Manhattan Prosecutor Alvin Bragg cobbling together the most creative, unusual and unprecedented prosecution in American history. He was further helped by the rulings and instructions to jurors by a very politically compromised judge.</p>



<p>Many observers on both sides agree that this case would never have been brought – and no conviction possible – virtually anywhere else in the country other than New York City. ; That tells us a lot.</p>



<p>Of course, there will be an immediate appeal – which will not be decided for another year or so. ; If Judge Juan Merchan follows the law and legal precedents, Trump will not be jailed – especially during an appeal. ; However, Merchan is a man on a mission, so I would not rule out a short jail sentence – possibly delayed until after the appeal.</p>



<p>I tend to agree with the various legal experts that the guilty verdict will be overturned based on any number of shocking irregularities, actions, decisions and rulings by Merchan. ;</p>



<p>Even if convicted and Trump loses an Appeal, he is not likely to be sent to prison. ; He would be considered a first-time offender and no threat to society. ; (Yeah, I know what those on the left would say about that, but legally he is not a threat.) ; That would probably mean probation.</p>



<p>Team Biden, Democrats and left-wing media got what they wanted. They can now legitimately call Trump a convicted felon. ; They have been tiddling over that prospect for months. ; On news programs, it has risen to the level of a mantra.</p>



<p>But &#8230; what does it get them politically? ; We shall have to wait and see. ; In the meantime, however, let us consider the possibilities.</p>



<p>Since Biden and Democrats were so eager to nail Trump with a felony conviction, one must assume that they see some political advantage. According to conventional wisdom, such a conviction should greatly diminish Trump’s prospects in the November presidential election. ; They might even have been hoping that he would be forced out of the race.</p>



<p>There is some evidence that the Democrat’s strategy could work. Polling shows that 10 percent of voters could change their vote if he were convicted. That theory, however, was behind all the prosecutions of Trump over the past year. And according to the polls, his numbers went up when the investigations were announced &#8230; and again when he was repeatedly indicted. Several Democrat strategists have expressed concerns that there will be a backlash favorable to Trump as a result of the conviction. We may have seen the precursor to that with the surge in donations to the Trump campaign within hours of the verdict &#8212; $34 million in less than 24 hours.</p>



<p>Personally, I think the conviction will not have a dramatic impact on the campaign. But I do believe Trump’s numbers will go up a bit. And that means a lot since most polls have Trump pulling further ahead before the verdict.</p>



<p>As sensational as the conviction is in terms of American politics and today’s news – the power of the story is likely to ebb as the conviction slips into the rearview mirror for most of the public. ; Once the appeal is filed, the case will slip into slow motion and out of sight. ; The prolonged appeal process will have very few newsworthy events. ; Whatever people think of the conviction, attention will turn back to the campaign issues that currently dominate in the voters’ minds – the economy, inflation, the border crisis, crime, the Fentanyl crisis and foreign wars.</p>



<p>If Biden is to regain the lead in the polls – and in the eventual vote – he will have to do more than demonize Trump and Republican voters – and run around yelling “convicted felon.” ; He will have to address the real reasons he is currently running behind Trump in all the battleground states.</p>



<p>In terms of the election, we may currently be seeing a lot of sound and fury that will amount to nothing politically very quickly.</p>



<p>So, there ‘tis.</p>

Will Trump’s conviction slow down his momentum?
