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Will Trump’s conviction slow down his momentum?

Will Trump’s conviction slow down his momentum?

As I predicted in previous commentaries, a conviction in the New York trial was more than likely.  It was based on two major factors – the jury pool and Manhattan Prosecutor Alvin Bragg cobbling together the most creative, unusual and unprecedented prosecution in American history.  He was further helped by the rulings and instructions to jurors by a very politically compromised judge.

Many observers on both sides agree that this case would never have been brought – and no conviction possible – virtually anywhere else in the country other than New York City.  That tells us a lot.

Of course, there will be an immediate appeal – which will not be decided for another year or so.  If Judge Juan Merchan follows the law and legal precedents, Trump will not be jailed – especially during an appeal.  However, Merchan is a man on a mission, so I would not rule out a short jail sentence – possibly delayed until after the appeal.

I tend to agree with the various legal experts that the guilty verdict will be overturned based on any number of shocking irregularities, actions, decisions and rulings by Merchan. 

Even if convicted and Trump loses an Appeal, he is not likely to be sent to prison.  He would be considered a first-time offender and no threat to society.  (Yeah, I know what those on the left would say about that, but legally he is not a threat.)  That would probably mean probation.

Team Biden, Democrats and left-wing media got what they wanted. They can now legitimately call Trump a convicted felon.  They have been tiddling over that prospect for months.  On news programs, it has risen to the level of a mantra.

But … what does it get them politically?  We shall have to wait and see.  In the meantime, however, let us consider the possibilities.

Since Biden and Democrats were so eager to nail Trump with a felony conviction, one must assume that they see some political advantage. According to conventional wisdom, such a conviction should greatly diminish Trump’s prospects in the November presidential election.  They might even have been hoping that he would be forced out of the race.

There is some evidence that the Democrat’s strategy could work.  Polling shows that 10 percent of voters could change their vote if he were convicted.  That theory, however, was behind all the prosecutions of Trump over the past year.  And according to the polls, his numbers went up when the investigations were announced …  and again when he was repeatedly indicted.  Several Democrat strategists have expressed concerns that there will be a backlash favorable to Trump as a result of the conviction.  We may have seen the precursor to that with the surge in donations to the Trump campaign within hours of the verdict — $34 million in less than 24 hours.

Personally, I think the conviction will not have a dramatic impact on the campaign.  But I do believe Trump’s numbers will go up a bit.  And that means a lot since most polls have Trump pulling further ahead before the verdict.

As sensational as the conviction is in terms of American politics and today’s news – the power of the story is likely to ebb as the conviction slips into the rearview mirror for most of the public.  Once the appeal is filed, the case will slip into slow motion and out of sight.  The prolonged appeal process will have very few newsworthy events.  Whatever people think of the conviction, attention will turn back to the campaign issues that currently dominate in the voters’ minds – the economy, inflation, the border crisis, crime, the Fentanyl crisis and foreign wars.

If Biden is to regain the lead in the polls – and in the eventual vote – he will have to do more than demonize Trump and Republican voters – and run around yelling “convicted felon.”  He will have to address the real reasons he is currently running behind Trump in all the battleground states.

In terms of the election, we may currently be seeing a lot of sound and fury that will amount to nothing politically very quickly.

So, there ‘tis.

About The Author

Larry Horist

So,there‘tis… The opinions, perspectives and analyses of Larry Horist Larry Horist is a businessman, conservative writer and political strategist with an extensive background in economics and public policy. Clients of his consulting firm have included such conservative icons as Steve Forbes and Milton Friedman. He has served as a consultant to the Nixon White House and travelled the country as a spokesman for President Reagan’s economic reforms. He has testified as an expert witness before numerous legislative bodies, including the U. S. Congress. Horist has lectured and taught courses at numerous colleges and universities, including Harvard, Northwestern, DePaul universities, Hope College and his alma mater, Knox College. He has been a guest on hundreds of public affairs talk shows, and hosted his own program, “Chicago In Sight,” on WIND radio. Horist was a one-time candidate for mayor of Chicago and served as Executive Director of the City Club of Chicago, where he led a successful two-year campaign to save the historic Chicago Theatre from the wrecking ball. An award-winning debater, his insightful and sometimes controversial commentaries appear frequently on the editorial pages of newspapers across the nation. He is praised by readers for his style, substance and sense of humor. According to one reader, Horist is the “new Charles Krauthammer.” He is actively semi-retired in Boca Raton, Florida where he devotes his time to writing. So, there ‘tis is Horist’s signature sign off.

36 Comments

  1. Archie

    The true patriots know that the conviction will be overturned and the other charges will be dismissed. And then retard joe can start looking at ads for rest homes. The homes might let him play president

    Reply
  2. Americafirst

    Larry, great article. I’m proud of you. The proverbial dam is about to break. The next six months is going to be a roller coaster ride with a great ending. Thanks for what you bring to us.

    Reply
  3. Tom

    This article (as with many of Larry’s articles) is full of bologna. Larry is heavily engaged in defaming our justice system and thwarting the rule of law when he does not like the verdict rendered against a GOP offender idol.

    This article gets a Stop The Spin rating of 5+. Here is why:

    1) The verdict was based on 200 exhibits of documents and 90 hours of eyewitness testimony. The judge bent over backwards at times to accommodate the Trump team. All of the judge’s decisions were in the open. The jury was selected by the prosecution AND THE TRUMP TEAM! Judge Merchan sustained and over-ruled objections from both sides. The jury instructions were comprised of input from both prosecution and defense teams.

    2) Larry says, “Many observers on both sides agree that this case” would never have been brought other than in NY city…..” Larry claims to follow the constitution, weeellll Larry, that’s what happens when you watch too much FOX and other right wing shows instead of listening to lawyers and former prosecutors from Manhattan. The constitution says you are entitled to a trial by a jury of your peers – where peers are defined as other persons unrelated to the defendant THAT LIVE IN THE AREA THAT THE CRIME WAS COMMITTED!!! Trump falsified business records in Manhattan NY so that is where the crime was tried. And he did these 34 falsifications to cover up election fraud and tax fraud against the people of NY, both of which are federal crimes.

    3) Larry espouses that this trial was political, and Trump could have gotten a fair trial elsewhere – like in a red state. Larry and MAGA want to make this pollical and a popularity contest which it was not – it was about documented criminal evidence from the place where the crimes were committed.

    4) Larry implies that jailing Trump will be a political stunt by Judge Mershan because the “judge is on a mission”. Hey Larry, if you had done Trump’s crimes, you would be in jail already. Most people convicted of felonies are immediately incarcerated after the sentence is pronounced at the sentencing procedure. Sentences are for two reasons: Incentivize remorse and re-habilitation; 2) To deter the defendant and others from committing the same crime. Many factors are included in sentencing like the pre-sentencing interview report, trial conduct of the defendant, gag order violations by the defendant, prosecutor and defense counsel, and in Trump’s case, his ongoing bashing of the judge and system. Jail for Trump is possible.

    5) Actually, most legal experts will tell you that the majority of appeals are denied, Trump’s chance of success is around 4-5%. Judge Merchan was very careful and open in the way he ran the trial because he knew Trump’s penchant to appeal, and, he recognized various attempts by the defense to seed “irregularities” into the trial so that they can appeal later. And by the way, the appeals team is most likely to be predominantly women judges.

    6) Trump’s chances of overturning the conviction are low because, 1) No new evidence introduced, 2) There were no significant errors by the judge, prosecution, 3) It was already ruled upon by the 11th circuit (Larry missed this) that there was no conflict of interest involving the judge, 4) All evidence and testimony was valid and proper, 5) Trump’s rights were not violated, 6) The entire trial was based on NY law and the judge went strictly by the book as he is known to do.

    7) Larry says, “Team Biden, Democrats and left-wing media got what they wanted. They can now legitimately call Trump a convicted felon.” There is no evidence that Biden had anything to do with it. Dems are most likely happy because the verdict is a win for the rule of law that the GOP says they are for but then acts differently! Larry included!

    8) Biden does not want Trump out of the race. He wants to beat Trump again to remove all doubt about the failure that Trump really is. Same with most Dems. Any bump he gets now will fade. The numbers say that more Dems were happy with the verdict than GOPs whom were upset with the verdict. And Independents fell on the side of a good verdict where 47% said they will not vote for Trump. Many hope Trump will go to jail but I think that has grave national security issues because of what he knows about national security. Trump feels America has turned on him, so he will be angry and vindictive. Trump likes to brag and give away secrets which he will do for prison favors.

    9) Most analysts and polls indicate that the verdict will do little to change the battleground state statistics – but remember Independents / Unaffiliated voters like me. 47% of Independents say they will not vote for Trump based on the verdict. This figure will likely increase as more is known about Trump’s crimes. He is also losing women by the droves. And his “I’m black and a convict just like you” campaign is not resonating with most black voters.

    And now you have the truth!!!

    Reply
    • Nancy

      Biden didn’t beat Trump you stupid fool

      Reply
      • Tom

        Stupid is loosing an election where even your own team and daughter says you lost but continuing the lies that you won. And the truly stupid ones are those that continue to ingest and reinforce the lies of the stupid one.

        Reply
    • Americafirst

      Tom, are you sure you are not in a dual personality? You sure do sound exactly like Frank. I noticed he didn’t post on here today using the “Frank Stetson” handle. See where this is headed?

      Reply
      • Frank stetson

        Yes, right under your tin foul hat.

        Reply
      • Tom

        I understand your problems handling the truth. There is psychological help available for you. Best wishes for a healthy recovery. Your observation that I sound like Frank speaks volumes about the truth. The truth only has one version, but lies have many versions. So it is only natural that those speaking the truth will sound much like each other.

        Reply
    • Harry

      F*ck you Tommy! Another leftist Marxist loudmouth full of Sh!t

      Reply
  4. larry Horist

    Tom … LMAO You really are funny. I skimmed through your long screed and and found it typical of your arrogance — always assuming your poorly grounded opinions — counterpoints — are factual. More pontificating from your little balcony. And a lot more of you personal attacks and snide remarks. And your laughably self-judging and completely incorrect closing … “And now you have the truth.” LOL Just what an arrogant self-absorbed bullsh*tter would say. Again … my commentary is my rebuttal to your latest attempt at relevancy. Give it another read and try to improve on your reading comprehension. If I were into silly rating systems as you are, I would rate this response as one of your worse in terms of intellectual integrity … sound thinking … logic … and fact based.

    Reply
    • Tom

      Larry your worthless comments are sounding more like Trump every day! And your uninformed opinions are so MAGA! And once again, you do not talk substance. You do not say which facts I state are wrong. No. Typical boring predictable Larry striving for relevancy using rants that do nothing but insult and then complain about being insulted only gives testimony to the intellectual midget that you truly are my dear friend.. Your comment is utter trash and not worthy of informed eyes – read NY law sometime and see all of your errors and Trump bias in your article. Your logic is perverted Trump logic that is uninformed by NY law. Yes my rating system which holds you accountable is for the benefit of those that like the truth – and I give the truth that you always seem to omit! Truth such as Trump’s bad court behavior. Truth like how Trump has grifted $71 Million off of the guilty verdict! Truth like the way Xi, Putin, and other autocrats are using Trump’s false narratives against the USA in emerging countries such as in Africa and Latin America. And by the way, calling the USA a banana republic is stupid because Hawaii grows bananas!

      I am sure that over time, my comments will make you a better writer. I await that Larry to emerge. Until that day, we will have a rating system backed by truthful comments and references (you know, the things you never give the reader!) LOL

      Reply
      • larry Horist

        Tom … You arrogance is astounding …and when tied to your ignorance, it is a bad combination, indeed, Rather authoritarian. You write: “I am sure that over time, my comments will make you a better writer. I await that Larry to emerge. Until that day, we will have a rating system backed by truthful comments and references (you know, the things you never give the reader!).” You should keep in mind that your right to your opinions — as wrong as they may be — does not carry a right to be taken seriously. And I am not sure anyone does except your balcony buddy.

        Reply
  5. frank stetson

    Let’s first just be simple about the case.

    The jury convicted Trump based on the compelling evidence.

    The jury had one or more Republicans who voted for Trump, statistically speaking. Any juror can hang the trial by not coming to a decision. Nothing except peer pressure can stop that. They didn’t even attempt to hang the jury because they convicted Trump based on the compelling evidence.

    That’s the American jury system and that’s what happened. Any juror could have stopped this, it does not look like they even tried.

    Reply
    • Donnie sauls

      The jury ignored the evidence or lack of evidence. Why does legal experts even from the left say that no crime was? I promise that if the conviction stands and I’m ever on a jury I’ll vote not guilty no matter what the so called evidence or what the charges are.

      Reply
    • Tom

      Well spoken though many do not want the truth. Have you noticed how Larry never contests any of my facts so that we can have a healthy debate and state references? He just wants to belittle (just like Trump) and thinks this will win the day. What a fool.

      Reply
      • Frank stetson

        Tom, Horist cannot argue based on the merits of the facts yet for some reason feels compelled to respond with all he can muster: vitriolic ad hominem.

        He claims not to read mine, but is still able to respond with childish name calling while blaming me as acting like him, or worse.

        Tis a strange game he plays.

        Reply
        • Tom

          Amen Frank! Very strange game.

          Reply
          • frank stetson

            yeah, I expected more from Horist. I mean he’s got 50 years of experience….. and soon, a book. I think it has the working title: “I’m perfect, you suck.” at least that’s what I heard.

            also expected the kids to have bio’s and be a bit more chatty.

            or even the commenters to step outside the name game of “just rude it.”

            but they let me write, dither about, so what can I say. expected more, but glad they are inclusion of most forms of free speech (except sound lyrics, poetry, and calling gilbertson a (#(#U##TY#$#

            hey, gotta run, got 7% in 5 months on pfe and need to put a stop loss order in…… good eats tonight!!!

          • larry Horist

            And this from a guy who repeatedly calls me a “pugnacious prick” among other things. And the usual “atta boy, Frank,” from his balcony partner. You cannot make this stuff up. They are absolutely clueless to their hypocrisy. LOL

          • frank stetson

            Horist: as I have said to you repeatedly, I only bring out “pugnacious price” OR “:spanky.” when I fail to ignore your ad hominem attacks. You picked the fight and then whine about being picked on. Just like Trump, another pugnacious prick. And it’s not just me. Other reviewers across your 50 years of political experience claim similar. Your junk yard dog tactics are tiresome, but at least this time you actually specified my ad hominem response to your name calling bullshit you frequently, well, downright normally, employ.

            Have you ever not called someone who disagreed with you a name? Not your whole career, but just here on PBP?

          • frank stetson

            Oh yeah, one more Horstian thing. If you don’t cling to my every word, if you don’t read me, then how do you know that I repeatedly call you a pugnacious prick?

      • Harry

        I think we have a leftist Trans on here. Somebody can’t decide whether they are a boy/woman. Frank and Tom, identical twins ? They both write bible size comments that are hilarious!

        Reply
  6. frank stetson

    Historical Horist: “Having followed all the testimony – and related issues – I personally believe the correct verdict is “not guilty.””

    Present Day Horist: “As I predicted in previous commentaries, a conviction in the New York trial was more than likely.”

    Paper does not refuse ink.

    New York is a blue bastion with 2:1 Democrats over Republicans; that does not make the jury any more biased than a Florida judge picked by Trump; their actions do. Actions might. A single juror can hang any jury, that’s the law. By statistical average, there would be Republicans on the jury. One or more, probably more than one. Earlier, Horist admitted that but still said if guilty, then political. How convenient a thought is that? You need more than a guilty verdict to claim actual jury bias to the point of persecution over prosecution.
    Based on the speed of the verdict, no one even tried to hang this jury. This is Trump’s town. He is a Queen’s man. He built his fortune here. Why would the entire city forsake him? Has he no friends in the place he grew up? All those happy people he employs? How come no one in his home town likes him? I mean hates him enough to toss a trial?

    Trump raised $34M in one night off the trial; perhaps that was his plan all along? Could be another Trump con job for publicity? Just think how much money going to jail will make.

    No folks, a novel case, but only in the specifics. The general law of a misdemeanor underlying another felony is as old as The Constitution it embraces. Face it, Bragg played it well, the Trump defense consisting of “it’s a lie and they are liars,” didn’t move the jury. But Trump’s allies: Pecker, Hicks, and others put the Trump-friendly facts on the table and the facts were the nails in Trump’s conviction coffin.

    Bring on the appeal, he will probably lose, but the delay will allow him to continue to troll for your dollars. And, after all, that’s what this is about for Trump. As usual.

    What the jury said was Trump rigged the 2016 election via hush money to a porn star, Playboy model, and the doorman’s girl, whatever that was. Period. Adjudicated. I am not sure politics entered into it. Personalities most certainly did.

    And both sides will raise money off of it.

    Lest you wonder, my call is for house arrest, but pick one house, use the ankle bracelet, and then supervised release for a lot of year. Put the dog on a leash and that’s good enough punishment for me. He was President, first time offender, no harm (except to Hillary, maybe), and so on. Putting him in jail would be a waste of taxpayer dollars to secure and harden the facility and make expensive accommodations for the Secret Service to protect him. Like putting them in jail too. Mar A Loser is already hardened.

    Of course, then again, probably was not smart to say the umpire SUCKS before the first pitch. But I think Merchan is fair. He continues to taunt Merchan now as his punishment phase approaches. Then again, he’s only acting, and there may be an election coming up……
    In his social media posts, it appears Trump is skipping the State appeals and instead begging his scotus to “annul” the verdict, whatever that means. There is a chance that Trump’s scotus will twist his immunity case to whitewash the NY decision. Who knows what these whacky Trump insurrection supporters of The Big Lie on the bench might come up with. These top judges in the land seem to read the Constitution with one eye closed and the other liquored up.

    I had noted earlier, there is good news for Trumpers in this. The case has set a precedent warning the rich that truth matters, transparency matters, and you can’t always buy your way out of criminal actions. Think about it; wouldn’t Clinton be subject to prosecution based on this precedent? He paid off a hooker presumably to stay or be erected, oops, I mean elected. How about when Obama used the famous movie to deflect Benghazi issues just before his election? An election where a guy with a poor economy won the day, seemingly by magic like delaying the Benghazi effect via the “hush movie.” Could he be subject to the precedent? And that goes for many of the rich and famous in politics, business and even charity organizations. ENOUGH: thanks to Bragg and Trump, we can prosecute them all going forward based on this precedent. And, IMO, that’s good news. Bring them all into the light.

    Nope, the jury verdict was good, it could easily have been hung, it was not. Trump will appeal, but where is a question as is can the Scotus even weigh in on the case at all. He is convicted with a good chance of being a convict. Timing wise, it really could not have happened any other way — and the timing was picked by Trump. Could have gone to trial with Cohen but he deferred using the famous “memo” not to indict a sitting President. Could have been finished months ago, but Trump put in appeals, motions, whatever to move the clock to the current time. Nope, it appears he did the deed, he picked the time, and now he will be served his punishment.

    Reply
    • larry Horist

      Frank Stetson ..Your obsessive lust to be the Larry Horist contrarian is making you stupid … or at least more stupid. Your first graph — which is all that I read — is not a contradiction as you suggest. Not even close. I personally believe the correct verdict should have been not guilty, but for all the reasons I stated in my commentaries, I did not think that was possible. Duh! Is it the obsession or diminishing reading comprehension issues?

      Reply
  7. Frank stetson

    How can you think anything. You admit never reading it.

    I agree they are your opinions. Both sides of your face worth.

    Reply
    • Tom

      Frank, Jon Stewart had an interesting comment today. He said he did not have a problem with Trump because Trump is a symptom of the real problem. He said that Trump is correct, the system is rigged. He pointed out that wealthy and powerful like Trump get special treatment that you and I do not get. He pointed out that Trump gets special treatment, then when convicted he raises money off of it. He pointed out how you and I do not have the means to work the system like Trump. He pointed out that Trump does not want to drain the swamp, Trump wants to own the swamp with deed in hand. In many ways, Trump is emblematic of the swamp he criticizes. He is emblematic of the rigging and system misuse that he complains about. And Trump uses all of this to stir up anger from the masses for funding and support. And the special treatment won’t end if he is elected. Security laws do not allow persons with felony fraud convictions and charges of obstructing search warrants to hold security clearances – and this will be a big problem since he will be getting access to info that security laws says he cannot have access to!

      This is why I am in favor of Trump getting jail time and being treated the same as other criminals. But not in favor of house imprisonment if it is Mara-largo because that is a vacation sentence. NY can make the security arrangements. If they are incarcerated after sentence pronouncement, then Trump should follow the same. I realize Trump is a very unusual and unique situation, but we must try to make his sentence as usual and normal as possible.

      Reply
  8. Tom

    Frank, your only mistake is in thinking that Larry thinks. He does not. He repeats FOX and others. He ingests lies and poops them out in articles. By the way, Xi and Putin are having a field day with Trump’s comments about our jurisprudence system. They are using Trump’s comments to show emerging African and Latin American countries that democracy does not work. Trump is doing much harm abroad with his comments.

    Like you, I am awaiting the appeal which will probably not come until early 2025. BTW, latest polls show Biden got a bounce and is now two points ahead of Trump. Trump miscalculated Independents and those that hate both candidates. They seem to be breaking for Biden because they do not like all of the evidence they heard in the trial and the conviction.

    Reply
    • Archie

      I swear by the Father, Son and Holy Ghost that Biden will never govern me.

      Reply
      • Tom

        He already is governing you dummy! And by the way, swearing by God’s name is a very dangerous thing to do! You obviously have not read much scripture. You apparently have never read, or at least do not understand if you did read Matthew 5:34 where Jesus says, “But I tell you, do not swear an oath at all: either by heaven, for it is God’s throne;” This is why I am calling you a dummy!

        Reply
        • Archie

          I know. But I have an advocate with the Father. Jesus Christ the righteous. As per the book of 1st john

          Reply
        • Harry

          Cant wait for Trump to use the new lawfare against the Marxist!! Now that the statue if limitations has been dissolved, going after the likes of Hillary to start with will be really exciting. There are many names!!!

          Reply
  9. tom

    I am thinking about how today is the 80th anniversary of D-Day. So many died fighting dictator Hitler and died for our democratic system that Trump is attempting to tear down for his own purposes. Shameful Trump. Shameful MAGA!

    Reply
    • Donnie sauls

      MAGA asshole!!!!!!! I’ll take a Donald Trump for president anytime. And you anti trumpers ain’t good enough to give him a rim job

      Reply
    • frank stetson

      Tom, thanks for the memories…. Funny how PBP patriots honor neither Memorial Day or D-Day…..

      My father arrived at the south of France a little after D-day. My wife’s father went home to Italy to care for Mom and five sisters at beginning of war. Both left new brides behind.

      My father joined up immediately on HS graduation. Got married. His training was a bad episode of Mash, he was a recon tank commander due to lack of training, and he would up against a Panzer in a town that was supposedly cleared. The Panzer won, and his wounds included a upper respiratory infection costing 9 months of hospitalization. His wife died of a septic abortion as he was wounded. My FIL’s wife claimed him dead and moved on. It took him five years to find a ship to get back. Yes, neither my wife or I would exist except for Hitler.

      I have an uncle left in Italy. One lost taking the watch of another and being rammed at war’s end by his own team in the Panama canal. One who sailed out on Pearl Harbor day on a broken ship to offer help. Another who flew the Berlin airlift. A couple who did the officer and a gentlemen thing out of Seattle and San Diego. And a few more but not sure where they ended up. My Dad got it a week or two before his team entered the camps, one of the first in. He was offered full dis, but memorably said: “the other boys need it more.” I thought of my FIL, with striped shirt and barret blowing up bridges and asked him, “dad, what did you do during….” And he sald: “slept.” As I asked for more he explained: when you are starving, you either are looking for food or sleeping because you have no food, no energy. Ouch.

      My father always valued his service, most certainly had ptsd when no one could spell it, but passed on a deep distrust of authority given the training and orders he fell under. Like most servicepeople, he focused on his team, protecting and surviving with it.

      I too honor the sacrifice of all service to country. I also question most wars and all the wars greater than five years. Thank you all.

      Reply
  10. Frank stetson

    D-day remembrance etiquette:

    Do you use Grey Poupon or Frenches?

    Reply
    • Jim wampler

      Do you use Vaseline?

      Reply

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