Will Trump win? Maybe not
Those of us who are in the political punditry business are expected to do the impossible … predict the future. We do the best we can by analyzing the statistics, looking to the trends of the past for informative data, applying our own probability factors based on experience … and then add a measure of gut instinct.
In terms of President Trump, of course he CAN win. Based on the closeness of the race, he has a reasonable possibility of winning. Prior to the withdrawal of President Biden, Trump had a high degree of probability. That was then. This is now.
So, why have I reduced Trump’s chances from a probability to only a possibility?
The most obvious reason is the nature of the campaign. Trump is no longer running against a mentally challenged 81-year-old with an unpopular record on the economy, immigration, crime, wokeness, and weak policies in foreign affairs. And a man with very poor messaging skills.
He now faces a much more vigorous and articulate candidate. She has a far more unified party. She can – and apparently has – temporarily stopped Trump’s advances among Blacks, Hispanics, women and younger voters. It is not a sea change, but in a close race, it can be enough to tip the scales.
One thing that was easily predictable was that Harris would get a bump over the Biden numbers immediately. She would get a bump picking her vice presidential candidate. And she will get a bump coming out of the convention. The important issue is … how much of a bump?
Harris has also reduced or taken away Trump’s lead in some of the all-important battleground states. They are still too close to call, but the marginal advantage has shifted. In some battleground states.
Trump is running an inexplicably terrible campaign. It is so bad that we are seeing Republican loyalists going public – criticizing Trump’s messaging. They say he is losing ground because he refuses to stay on a winning message. That sounds a lot like the Democrat leaders going public against Biden when he was losing it – referring to the election.
Trump has the advantage on virtually all the key issues, but if the deciding factor for voters is his pugnacious personality, he loses.
Now is the time when that last group of undecided voters start making up their minds. They are currently trending to Harris. Trump has very little time to shift his campaign away from personalities and on to issues. Calling Harris names not only takes the air out of the room for presenting issues – his stand against Harris’ uber left-wing positions – it keeps the voters focusing on his personality. His Achilles Heel.
Trump carries a LOT of baggage. He has been able to succeed despite (and maybe because) of it. But it still is an overall negative in terms of voter support. That is most clearly seen in the number of GOP voters, leaders and activists who have abandoned Trump – with many fully joining the opposition.
Turning things around for Trump is more difficult because of the general pro-Democrat bias of the news media. The bias is more extreme today than ever.
In close elections, the get-out-the-vote effort is more important than ever. From a distance, it appears that the Democrats may have the advantage.
Despite all that, it is still very possible for Trump to win. How could that happen?
First and foremost, Trump would have to drop all his grievance complaints — and stop the childish name calling. If he does not do at least that, the possibility of winning diminishes.
Harris does not get a high score in the likeability ratings. Her favorability rating can slip without the Trump attacks. In fact, he helps her with voters by making himself less likable.
Trump needs to talk issues, her record and his plans one hundred percent of the time. The only references to himself should be the good things he has done as President – securing the border, keeping America out of war – and the world was more peaceful. There was no invasion of Ukraine under Trump – nor an attack on Israel. The Taliban did not control Afghanistan. Iran was on the ropes financially. North Korea had stopped missile testing. The Abraham Accords made the Middle East more peaceful and stable. Record low inflation and unemployment – especially Black unemployment. And the list goes on.
Unfortunately for Trump his many accomplishments got trumped – figuratively and literally — by his own behavior and outlandish statements. He literally crushes his own positive messaging.
Republicans have every reason to be concerned — but it is no time for Democrats to get giddy.
So, there ‘tis.
All horizontal Harris has to is open her mouth about any of the issues prominent and she loses. The cackling hyena is completely clueless about issues Americans are most concerned or she is on the side of the communists for those!!
I agree with you Robert, the problem is the uneducated will believe her.
They are not smart enough to realize she is half the reason the country is in this position.
This is not a race issue I believe, it is a Stupid issue. This spans all colors.
She, like Hitler and all other want to be dictators tell the people what they want to hear.
This tactic has been used by con men through history and only the Weak minded fall pray to it.
Trump was President and did everything he said would do even as the media was the Devil upon him.
If there were more smart people in this country, Camal would not be an issue, but then there would not
be Republicans or Democrat’s, just people doing the right thing!
Trying to render peace and not war. Make living affordable for the working tax payer.
Governing according to the Constitution!
You say, “Trump was President and did everything he said would do even as the media was the Devil upon him.” REALLY?
Did he complete his wall? NO
Did he get Mexico to pay for his wall? NO
Did he pass an infrastructure bill? NO
Did he get that factory in Ohio built? NO
Did he replace Obamacare?
Did he even get Obamacare repealed? NO
Did he have the best economy ever? NO
Did he create more jobs than Biden? NO
Did he protect Americans from Covid? Nope, he was late to acknowledge it and probably 250,000 people unnecessarily died.
By the way, Trump is the one who does better with the under-educated. It was revealed by his secretary that while he publicly says he loves the poorly educated people, in private at family gatherings he disparages all people that do not have college degrees. He calls them trailer people. Your post reveals you might just be in this group! 🙂
Tom …. Did Trump cut illegal crossings? Did he have low unemployment prior to the pandemic? Did he hold prices down? Did he cripple Iran? Did he avoid wars? Did he get N. Korea to suspend long range missile testing? He he get NATO members to increase their their contributions? Did he negotiate the Abrahams Accords? Did he expand school choice? Did he appoint three conservatives to the Supreme Court? (I understand as a left-winger, you did not like that one,) Did he cut federal regulations that were stifling business? Did he ban former members of Congress from being lobbyists and foreign agents? And the list goes on. You are just one of that lockstep group that cannot give Trump credit for anything. Unlike you, I have said what I do not agree with re Trump … and what I like. You are incapable of such objectivity — and you falsely claim I am a Trumpicant. By your own favorite term, that is bullshit. I have challenged you and others to at least give me a few things he did that you liked ….crickets. How about now? What did Trump do that you liked? Waiting ………
Larry, Larry-you act like the things you cited were good things for the US, but if you look at the results, the answer is a resounding ‘no’. His withdrawal from the Iran treaty (aside from showing the world that we cannot be trusted to negotiate in good faith) left the Iranian people worse off, did nothing to change their government and allowed them to resume work on nuclear weapons unchecked, further destabilizing the area. You don’t want trump to have to take credit for the loss of millions of jobs at the end of his term (which I wouldn’t say was his fault) but you keep insisting that the rise of prices is Biden’s fault, when it resulted due to the same pandemic-pure hypocrisy (but to be expected from an ignoramus such as yourself). You mention the Abraham accords-what a disaster those have been. Did not involve the people most affected by the issues in Israel (similar to the negotiations with the taliban which ended up with the afghan government we supported falling). Yes, there was deregulation for companies during his term, but the result was more profit for them-nothing for the worker bees. The guy you will vote for in November was a total failure during his 4 years in office-they don’t rate presidents “among the worst in history” for purely political reasons. And now, for anyone willing to listen to him, there is the mental failure he is showing (perhaps you didn’t watch his interaction with Dr Phil??).
Tommi, much of your list is because Trump lost the 2020 election and couldn’t finish what he started, and you know it. BUT, he did more for AMerica than you have ever done. Why? Aren’t you supposed to be a Patriot and help all of us? We all have a duty to America. What exactly have you done for America? Before you slam me again, I will tell you I work 17 to 18 hours per day, every day for the last ten years for research and investigative work. Very little time to even shop or do any home (house) work. I have no days off and no vacation either. I have a long list of followers that wait for my next posts or emails to them so they can see what I investigated or researched. do his for an agency, too. Soon, I will get a break when all this bs is over and done with. So, a little girl like you who claim to be a big man and professor of everything isn’t what you really are, is it? Do you get off on bullying everyone who posts that you don’t agree with? Not agreeing is healthy but slamming people with the filth you exhibit us uncalled for. You reaped what you sowed. Slam us, we slam you – to the end of time. We will not stop until you do, and apologize for being rude, crude and disgusting. Tit for tat! Stop and think about what you and Stetson started which includes several other maniacs you play with on this site.
My post was created because what Darren posted was A LIE!!!! You and so many other cultists seem to really gobble up these lies. So I posted the things that Trump did not do. He said in 2016 that he was going to do those things. You are making a lame excuse which I would expect from a tiny man experiencing menopause while in mental health confinement.
You may say what you wish. It will not stop me from telling the truth. And you cannot do anything about that!
No be a good little tiny man and take your Prozac and be a good boy for your handlers tonight!
Didn’t lose. The election was stolen
Seth, yes, he beat Hillary in the popular vote. He won the 2020. His candidates won in 2022. He won all 65 court cases for the 2020 and the half dozen recounts.
If you believe it’s all true, then its all true for you.
Pony up your 1,500 for a piece of his debate suit?
99,99 for a digital playing card?
gonna be worth millions…….
limited supply, get yours today……
Yup, he’s no huckster that guy…….
Kamie KooKoo may not be able to complete her candidacy. The 1857 Supreme Court Dred Scott Decision is now being brought into play. That means a candidate must be born on American soil and also the candidates’ parents. Since her?his parents were not born on American soil and Kamie being born in Benghazi (sp) well, I don’t know what will happen.
A’s entire passage is disinformation and a lie.
BUSTED
Dred Scott effectively overturned by 13 and 14th amendment.
Harris born in CA, USA.
AF frequents disinformation sources and repeats lies frequently.
.
Stetsy, Hey you low-class idiot. My info did not come from RRN. Try finding the truth for once. You are busted. The Dred Scott is going through some members of Congress right now. Harris was NOT born in California. She also mostly grew up in Canada. Jag at Guantanamo has the real truth which, I do get info from. Don’t you know the difference between Canada and the United States? When you graduated first grade, you never went back to school. You must have grown up deep underground in the tunnels. You know what that means. MK Ultra.
AF: I never mentioned RRN.
The dread Scott decision is being brought up by the NFRA, a 527 Republican group. It is not in Congress.
She was born in Oakland, California.
She attended college for two years in Canada.
JAG Has no information that you can provide.
I actually grew up for a while on the Canadian border near Buffalo. Also spent some time at a lake house near Erie, PA and visit Canada often. Tremblant a favorite ski, very natural.
BUSTED again BUSTED.still.
Tou really need to check you facts.
NO< SHE WAS NOT BORN IN CALIFORNIA. You listen to too much MSM porn. I will stake my life on my statement. I would go to my death on my statement! Now wouldn't that be a crock. You would have a neighborhood party and get raving drunk if I was killed because that is the low-class type of hardhead you are! Now I can add killer to your resume'.
AF u are talking really crazy, sound suicidal, use the hot line to get some help. But if you are funnin again like the RRN jokes, you must know that Harris’ mother came to the States in 1958 which probably means she’s been a citizen longer than you. Harris was born in Oakland CA, there are pictures. She moved around the Midwest with her professor-parents and their jobs in America.
I made a mistake saying Harris only lived in Canada for two years of college, she lived there with her Mom from 76 to 81 with her Mom.
You have no proof she was not born in the US, nor proof where she was born outside the US. I trust you were kidding about self harm as well.
BUSTED again for knowingly spreading disinformation which gilbertson supports and empowers.
Frank Stetson … Gilbertson does not support or empower disinformation. He allows a wide range of free speech — even those with whom he disagrees or even attack him. As an authoritarian left-winger, you have a problem with free speech. We understand that. We saw that again in the Facebook deal with the White House. Killing the Hunter laptop issue before the election was straight out of the fascist playbook. Biden created the lie about a Russian hoax and forced the truth to be censored. No dispute there. Zuckerberg publicly confessed and apologized for his role. You folks on the left fail to understand the concept and importance of free speech even has you benefit from it.
PS. Maybe we won’t have any person for President in 2024. What a conundrum.
Tinyman, If you are going to rely on social media, at least check your facts so that you won’t look so darn stupid! See *https://www.reuters.com/fact-check/kamala-harris-eligible-be-president-despite-misleading-posts-2023-10-18/* where you can get the fact check on your statement about Harris’s birth cert and there is a link to her birth certificate. She was born on US soil so she is an American citizen. That is the requirement.
You are exactly the kind of voter (if they allow you to vote in the asylum) that Trump relies on: Uneducated and delusional just like himself.
No be a good little dyke, take your Prozac and respect your psychiatrists!!!
Tomi, you dyke, all your information was forged. It has been done before, makes that dyke Kamala look real. Same with Obama. Kamala is dead. She was executed in 2017. The thing you see as her/it is a paid actress, sometimes an avatar. Her/it’s face is totally different from her attorney general days. Where do you get your information, anyway? The Enquirer? The CCP? Tell all of us so we can get it too. My team also wants to know.
AF: this is more disinformation supported and empowered by gilbertson.
I guess PBP just wants to be a site of low repute where truth hides and lies abound. Repeatedly. Frequently.
How will Trump react should he come up short in both the popular vote and the Electoral College ballot count? First, Trump will not concede he lost. So, he will not make the customary congratulatory phone call to Harris.
Second, He will cast doubt on the election’s, legality, fairness, legitimacy, and commitment committed complain that Democrats rigged the election against him. Again, he will sue for the vote recounts where he thinks he has leverage.
Third, Trump’s 1/6/2021 attempt to snatch victory from true fact of loss could be a dress rehearsal.
Fourth, Trump has foretold what his MAGA tribe will do in the event of his being defeated. He said they will rally to his defense demanding that Trump actually prevailed. He sees himself as the catalyst for solving the world’s most contested issues. Sadly, enough instances of public insanity has made Trump’s predictions plausible if not probable.
Horist can say what he want about Trumps achievements while Yrump was acting president, but truth be told, Trump was minor league in his stature as capable. The phrase, all blow, no go pins the tail on the donkey in his case.
AC – I guess you will find out when the time comes, if it does at all. Who knows. I am at the point where I just do not care about it anymore. Que Sera Sera.
Yes AC, 1/6 was a rehearsal as well as a learning experience. They have fine tuned their takeover strategy. They plan to have select county elections not certified. Dems are suing Georgia right now over this where they plan to not certify a few counties. Some of the main election deniers are out of jail and on the GA board of elections and they are making last minute changes to rules. Governor Kemp is against what they are doing, and Dems are suing.
Trump is already undermining our institutions. He has been doing this now for several years. I expect it to intensify.
Little girl, Tomi, you are one of three here that is undermining the entire United States. You have a lie problem. It’s perpetual. There is help for you. You need to get it immediately or you will be lost forever. You seem to be living in the Twilight Zone.
Tom … Your postings are getting nastier and nastier… and more of that stuff you enjoy on sandwiches a long with the Kook-Aid you consume in large quantities. And now you are getting conspiracy theory paranoid. You are even compelled to engage with Americafirst’s crazy theories with your own crazy conspiracy theories. You are increasingly sounding like a cranky and bitter old man in a pitiful need for relevancy. And I still have not heard your list of things Trump did that you like. You have ignored that question many times over many years. I would add to that … give me you list of things that Biden did that you did not like. It tells a lot out your objectivity and intellectual integrity. I have written both positive and negative things about both Biden and Trump — and Obama. I have written positive and negative things about congressional Republicans So, who is the lockstep political zombie? If you do not know the answer, check out the mirror.
Larry/Have to point out the bullshit you wrote above-yes the WH did not allow info about hunters laptop to be posted prior to the 2020 election. However, you and others, seem to forget whose WH it was-not Biden’s. (Would have commented on that dumbass comment when you made it-but you turned off the reply button)
I hope and pray he does, however I don’t think Trump stands a chance. The Democrat’s have already started their cheating and I have not heard one Republican attempt to do anything let alone just say anything about it. Just like the last time. They had audio, video and people come forward and they did nothing. A few months ago a couple of states or counties came out and admitted they had votes for Trump that where not counted that amounted to over twenty million and nobody on the Republican side or any of the courts said anything. If they did I didn’t hear it so it wasn’t much.