There is not a lot of reporting on the impact of third party candidates for president. There are a bunch of them. The most notable – and the one with some real potential for flipping results – is Jill Stein, running on the Green Party label. Are the pollsters not polling or is the media simply not reporting?
Stein is not getting a lot of votes, but if the results are as close as they appear in the polling, even a few thousand votes can flip a state – and one flipped battleground state can flip the entire national election.
To the extent Stein has an impact, she appears to be hurting Vice President Harris more than President Trump. Trump said the quiet stuff out loud when he said he loved Stein because she takes more from Harris.
While the general polls appear to be ignoring Stein as a non-issue, methinks Harris’ internal polls must be showing Stein as a potential threat. I say that because Team Harris is running a series of ads against Stein – closing with “a vote for Stein is a vote for Trump.” This is the first time in presidential campaign history that a major candidate has paid for political ads against a minor third party candidate.
The concern over Stein is seeping into the left-wing media. MSNBC’s uber left Lawrence O’Donnell spent an entire segment on his late night show to attack Stein – and those who would vote for her.
Stein has a unique appeal for some of the traditional Democrat base this year. It has to do with her anti-Israel positions. She gives a home to Arab American voters who side with the Palestinians. They are unhappy with both Trump’s and Harris’ support for Israel – although the latter’s support is tenuous. And Stein has an appeal to Democrats who think Green – and that is not an allusion to money. Harris appears less Green after flipping from no fracking to no stopping fracking. Harris is parading Green for Halloween while claiming to support fracking.
Harris is trying to play on both sides of the political tennis court. She blames Israel for the civilian casualties and calls for an immediate ceasefire. At the same time, she pledges to continue military support. Those are incompatible positions that give Stein an opening with the radical left in the Democrat base.
Arguably Stein’s best opportunity to peel off Harris votes is in the battleground state of Michigan – with its large Muslim Arab population. If the Wolverine State is as close in the vote count as it is in the polls, Stein could make a difference. And flipping a major battleground state could – just could – flip the Electoral College.
Generally, third party candidates account for less than 5 percent of the total vote – although there have been exceptions. With Trump and Harris nationally separated by less than 5 percent – as well as in the battleground states — the third party voter could determine the outcome of the election. In view of who the third party candidates are — and who they draw from — Harris should have difficulty sleeping at night.
So, there ‘tis,