While Democrats Wallow in the Good News, there is a Lot of Bad

The Democratic Party finds itself in a paradoxical moment—celebrating victories in interim elections while grappling with sobering setbacks. They face a troubling erosion of support among key demographics, fundraising woes, and historically low favorability ratings. The juxtaposition of triumph and turmoil paints a complex picture of a party at a crossroads.

While the national spotlight has been fixated on presidential politics and global crises, Democrats have been making strategic gains in special elections. The most notable recent win came in Virginia’s 11th Congressional District, where Democrat James Walkinshaw routed Republican Stewart Whitson in a special election to replace the late Rep. Gerry Connolly. Walkinshaw captured a staggering 75% of the vote. But this is a seat that had long been considered safely Democratic.

This victory shrinks the GOP’s margin in the House to just six seats, making legislative maneuvering increasingly precarious for Speaker Mike Johnson. With only 219 Republican representatives to the Democrats’ 213, the loss of a handful of GOP votes on key bills could derail the party’s agenda.

Virginia is not the only place where Democrats have quietly surged. In statewide races, Democratic candidates are polling ahead in the upcoming gubernatorial, lieutenant governor, and attorney general contests. Abigail Spanberger, running for governor, holds a 12-point lead over Republican Winsome Earle-Sears. Ghazala Hashmi leads her GOP opponent by 11 points in the lieutenant governor race, and Jay Jones is ahead by seven points in the attorney general contest. These numbers suggest a broader Democratic momentum in a state that has drifted leftward over the past decade.

These wins, despite the abysmal polling numbers, are not just symbolic—they’re strategic. Democrat strategist James Carville says to ignore the polling numbers that show the Democratic Party to be unpopular. He argues that the electoral wins are all that matter.

So much for the good news for Democrats—what about all those bad signs?

Despite these electoral bright spots, Democrats are struggling to maintain financial and emotional support from their base. Fundraising has lagged behind Republican efforts, with major Democratic committees reporting lower-than-expected hauls in recent quarters. This financial shortfall could hamper outreach, advertising, and ground game efforts in the critical months ahead.

More alarming are the party’s polling numbers. Favorability ratings for Democrats have plummeted to historic lows, with internal and public polls showing widespread dissatisfaction. A recent Washington Post/Ipsos poll showed the GOP leading Democrats by 7 percent on crime, 13 percent on immigration, and 22 percent on the economy. According to CNN’s analyst Harry Enten, these numbers represent an upward trend for Republicans. In a tone of panic, he rhetorically asked, “What are you doing, Democrats? My goodness gracious.”

The erosion is particularly stark among younger voters—once a reliable Democratic stronghold.

According to a recent Decision Desk HQ report, Democratic registration among Gen Z men has dropped dramatically. Historically, about 49 percent of young white men registered as Democrats. That number now sits at just 29 percent. Among young non-white men, registration has fallen from 66 percent to 54 percent. While young women—especially women of color—remain more loyal to the party, the gender gap is widening, and the volatility of Gen Z’s political allegiance should have Democrats up all night.

Democratic pollster Celinda Lake noted that Gen Z voters are “dissatisfied, anxious, and not attached to either party.” This detachment makes them susceptible to shifting tides, especially when Republicans are aggressively courting them through social media and populist messaging.

The assassination of Charlie Kirk, founder of Turning Point USA, has added another layer of complexity to the political landscape. Kirk was a galvanizing figure for young conservatives, using social media and campus activism to draw Gen Z into the Republican fold. His death, while tragic, is being viewed by many on the right as a rallying cry—a moment that could further energize young conservatives and deepen their political engagement. Since the assassination, Turning Point USA has received more than 40,000 applications for new chapters. Not good news for Democrats.

Republican Gen Z leaders like Joe Mitchell and Braxton Mitchell have cited Kirk’s legacy as a motivating force behind their own political ambitions. Organizations like Run Gen Z are working to build a pipeline of young conservative candidates, capitalizing on the emotional impact of Kirk’s death to mobilize a new generation.

For Democrats, this presents a challenge. While they mourn the loss of civil discourse and condemn political violence, they must also contend with the reality that Kirk’s assassination has accelerated the GOP’s youth movement—at a time when Democrats are losing ground with the same demographic.

Summary

Democrats are walking a tightrope. Their recent electoral successes offer hope and momentum, but they may not be enough to offset the deeper structural and emotional challenges facing the party. Fundraising deficits, declining favorability, and Gen Z disillusionment threaten to undermine the gains made in Virginia and beyond.

To navigate this moment, Democrats must do more than win elections—they must win hearts. That means listening to young voters, addressing economic anxieties, and crafting a message that resonates beyond traditional party lines. The road to 2026 will be shaped not just by who shows up at the ballot box, but by who feels seen, heard, and inspired. It is that old “enthusiasm” component—and at this point, it goes to the GOP.

(I have not changed my prediction that Democrats will take control of the House, but I am lowering my wager.)

So, there ‘tis.