
<p>I am amazed. I was confident that President Biden would get an upward bump – at least temporarily &#8211;after his State of the Union Speech. ; I was judging less on content and more on performance. ; But in politics and entertainment, performance counts.</p>



<p>According to the FiveThirtyEight national polling average, however, Biden’s favorable rating dropped to the lowest it has been since he took office. ; In view of the troublesome issues with which former president Trump is dealing, it is more than simply counterintuitive to see Biden’s rating drop again. ; It is downright inconceivable.</p>



<p>Biden came in with a 37.4 favorability rating in the RealClearPolitics compilation. His previous low was in December of 2023 (37.6%). ; Biden’s disapproval rating is 56.5 – inching towards a two-thirds level. ; That means he is approximately 20 points underwater. ;</p>



<p>The trendline of Biden’s favorable rating continues on a downward track. ; It is not a huge difference, but it is significant. ; It means in the past three months – and despite Trump’s headline problems and Team Biden’s efforts to change the trajectory &#8212; Biden lost ground. ; ; Even the highly touted State of the Union Speech could not reverse the trend.</p>



<p>This is amazing. ; Virtually every Democrat, leftwinger and pundit predicted that Biden would get a bump in the polls following the speech (me included) – some even suggesting a game-changing large bump (not me).</p>



<p>Political analysts and pundits always note that there is a lot of time between now and the time voters begin casting ballots. ; That is true. ; Obviously, however, not as much as there was three months ago when many thought the December 2023 low was the turning point.</p>



<p>The current numbers suggest that Biden&#8217;s base is crumbling &#8212; or has crumbled. ; We may be seeing the impact of Black and Hispanic voters switching to Trump and the GOP. ; Biden is losing the Islamic community. ; While Trump and Republicans can be said to have a female voter gap, it apparently is not as large as conventional wisdom assumed and the leftwingers had hoped.</p>



<p>While anything is possible, Team Biden has to face a harsh reality. ; Every day more and more voters are locking in their decisions. ; Oh &#8230; there is still an opportunity for a last-minute shift in sentiment, but that generally requires some sort of disruptive event – an October surprise. And you can bet that Biden strategists are in the backroom working diligently on one at this moment.</p>



<p>So, what about the speech? ; Even if you question the accuracy of the RealClearPolitics numbers, they cannot be interpreted as good for Biden.  ;</p>



<p>Why didn’t the speech help?</p>



<p>Typical of the reaction was that of New York City College Professor Heath Brown, who declared in a <em>Newsweek</em> interview that Biden had given “one hell of a speech.” ; He said Biden was “combative, funny and aggressive.” ; Brown summarized his opinion with, &#8220;This clearly was the official launch of his reelection campaign, and a good one at that.&#8221; ; Maybe not so much.</p>



<p>Brown was not alone in his opinion. ; A post-speech poll by CNN showed that 65 percent of viewers had a positive reaction to Biden’s speech – with more than half of them (35%) saying “very positive.”</p>



<p>A closer examination of other post-speech polling may explain – at least to some measure – why THE speech was well received but did not improve Biden’s numbers. ;</p>



<p>A YouGov survey found that only 30 percent of viewers believed that people (voters) would have a more positive view of Biden. That is offset by 23 percent who believe people would have a more negative feeling toward Biden. ; That is almost an even split. ; Another 26 percent believed there would be no change in the opinion of Biden, with the remaining 21 percent having no opinion. ; ; If you take the 23 percent negative, the 26 percent “no change” and the 21 percent no opinion, that leaves only the 30 percent to push up Biden’s numbers. ; The rest can only be described as pessimistic.</p>



<p>In other words &#8230; while two-thirds of viewers had a favorable impression of the speech, only 30 percent thought it would work to Biden’s political benefit. ;  ;That may explain the RealClearPolitics numbers.</p>



<p>And what does that mean to the contest between the two nominees – Biden and Trump? ; It is not good news for Biden.</p>



<p>A number of polls have similar results to the Harris survey – taken after the speech. It has Trump ahead of Biden by 5 points (47% to 42%) – beyond the margin of error. And even among those who watched the speech, Trump still bests Biden by 47 percent to 45 percent.</p>



<p>And if you examine the polling averages in the battleground states, Trump currently tops Biden in all but Wisconsin. ; Translated to likely Electoral College votes, Trump wins hands down. ; But polls are polls and elections are elections. ; None of this means that Biden cannot or will not win, it just means at this point in time, he has a VERY high hill to climb. ; ; But this IS politics, and anything can happen.</p>



<p>So, there ‘tis.</p>

WHAT? Biden favorable rating drops after SOTU?
