WHAT? Biden favorable rating drops after SOTU?
I am amazed. I was confident that President Biden would get an upward bump – at least temporarily –after his State of the Union Speech. I was judging less on content and more on performance. But in politics and entertainment, performance counts.
According to the FiveThirtyEight national polling average, however, Biden’s favorable rating dropped to the lowest it has been since he took office. In view of the troublesome issues with which former president Trump is dealing, it is more than simply counterintuitive to see Biden’s rating drop again. It is downright inconceivable.
Biden came in with a 37.4 favorability rating in the RealClearPolitics compilation. His previous low was in December of 2023 (37.6%). Biden’s disapproval rating is 56.5 – inching towards a two-thirds level. That means he is approximately 20 points underwater.
The trendline of Biden’s favorable rating continues on a downward track. It is not a huge difference, but it is significant. It means in the past three months – and despite Trump’s headline problems and Team Biden’s efforts to change the trajectory — Biden lost ground. Even the highly touted State of the Union Speech could not reverse the trend.
This is amazing. Virtually every Democrat, leftwinger and pundit predicted that Biden would get a bump in the polls following the speech (me included) – some even suggesting a game-changing large bump (not me).
Political analysts and pundits always note that there is a lot of time between now and the time voters begin casting ballots. That is true. Obviously, however, not as much as there was three months ago when many thought the December 2023 low was the turning point.
The current numbers suggest that Biden’s base is crumbling — or has crumbled. We may be seeing the impact of Black and Hispanic voters switching to Trump and the GOP. Biden is losing the Islamic community. While Trump and Republicans can be said to have a female voter gap, it apparently is not as large as conventional wisdom assumed and the leftwingers had hoped.
While anything is possible, Team Biden has to face a harsh reality. Every day more and more voters are locking in their decisions. Oh … there is still an opportunity for a last-minute shift in sentiment, but that generally requires some sort of disruptive event – an October surprise. And you can bet that Biden strategists are in the backroom working diligently on one at this moment.
So, what about the speech? Even if you question the accuracy of the RealClearPolitics numbers, they cannot be interpreted as good for Biden.
Why didn’t the speech help?
Typical of the reaction was that of New York City College Professor Heath Brown, who declared in a Newsweek interview that Biden had given “one hell of a speech.” He said Biden was “combative, funny and aggressive.” Brown summarized his opinion with, “This clearly was the official launch of his reelection campaign, and a good one at that.” Maybe not so much.
Brown was not alone in his opinion. A post-speech poll by CNN showed that 65 percent of viewers had a positive reaction to Biden’s speech – with more than half of them (35%) saying “very positive.”
A closer examination of other post-speech polling may explain – at least to some measure – why THE speech was well received but did not improve Biden’s numbers.
A YouGov survey found that only 30 percent of viewers believed that people (voters) would have a more positive view of Biden. That is offset by 23 percent who believe people would have a more negative feeling toward Biden. That is almost an even split. Another 26 percent believed there would be no change in the opinion of Biden, with the remaining 21 percent having no opinion. If you take the 23 percent negative, the 26 percent “no change” and the 21 percent no opinion, that leaves only the 30 percent to push up Biden’s numbers. The rest can only be described as pessimistic.
In other words … while two-thirds of viewers had a favorable impression of the speech, only 30 percent thought it would work to Biden’s political benefit. That may explain the RealClearPolitics numbers.
And what does that mean to the contest between the two nominees – Biden and Trump? It is not good news for Biden.
A number of polls have similar results to the Harris survey – taken after the speech. It has Trump ahead of Biden by 5 points (47% to 42%) – beyond the margin of error. And even among those who watched the speech, Trump still bests Biden by 47 percent to 45 percent.
And if you examine the polling averages in the battleground states, Trump currently tops Biden in all but Wisconsin. Translated to likely Electoral College votes, Trump wins hands down. But polls are polls and elections are elections. None of this means that Biden cannot or will not win, it just means at this point in time, he has a VERY high hill to climb. But this IS politics, and anything can happen.
So, there ‘tis.
What was the Republican response?
Katie bar the door, our county is in retreat, we are a crime-infested land whose economy is tanking, as violent illegals storm our cities and rape, then kill, our women. Our Republican leaders calls 1/6 criminals hostages he intends to void the rule of law and free, wants to jail Cheney, and tells us of the your bloodbath when he loses the election.
Britt speaks, it’s all about Biden, she has no alternative plan. She speaks of Amerca in the gutter with Biden as the reason, and you were better off in 2020 living under Trump’s covid mismanagement where he killed over a million people, many needlessly.
Her claim is backed by her 3-years of failure in Congress. Katie Britt responded to the SOTU by announcing her Senate job, the country, the Constitution, the rule of law, all play second fiddle to her being a mom showing us once and for all time why Republican women should never be elected to office. She’s worried about her family’s future, Joe is worried for the country.
This is not a dumb woman. But she is not well read, and not up to date. We have been through some tough years starting with 2020’s covid, supply line shortages, inflation, wars, lots of stuff, some historical bads. And many Americans have not seen benefits from Bidenomics, there is much frustration, much memories of the bad times; Britt plays those heartstrings like an expert in emotions. Fuck the facts. She could have said the truth — we are coming out of dark days, and many have not felt the benefits, many remember the bad times as if still here, and we need to assure a better future. But NO, she went with — it’s all shit and getting shittier. Like:
“The country we know and love seems to be slipping away.” Bring back Mayberry… Republicans are not old, they just think old. Always worse than yesterday when Trump fixed everything in four years. Ask her: she thinks Trump is better than Reagan. Sigh.
It’s the 60’s all over. Guess what – they said it back then too, and I did far better than my parents because they showed me the way, educated me, set me free, I lived my dreams, and it worked —- the Debby Downers were wrong.
Then we hear about her poor life of a dual-business family where she did not have to find a job, they gave her one. I had to find a real job when I was 13; Mom and Dad didn’t own the company, I had to find my job on my own.
“But right now, the American Dream has turned into a nightmare for so many families.” Nightmare, really?
“The true, unvarnished State of our Union begins and ends with this: Our families are hurting. Our country can do better.” OK lady, that’s not a SOTU response to say: I see bad, I think do better. That’ s not a solution, that’s not a plan. Thank you Captain Obvious….. I think we should kill the SOTU response since it’s political pandering by second rate speakers.
“President Biden inherited the most secure border of all-time. But minutes after taking office, he suspended all deportations, halted construction of the border wall, and announced a plan to give amnesty to millions.” No “my predecessor,” no politics here…..
“Biden invited the border crisis.” She went to Del Rio to share sex trafficking under Trump that I can blame on Biden later. Except the sex trafficking story was a lie. She can’t remember things correctly due to young age I guess.
Empty chairs from illegal’s murdering to fentanyl poisonings because of Biden even though fentanyl deaths doubled on Trump’s watch, murders went up 30% in Trump’s last year and dropped in 2022 under Biden. In 2023, murders dropped by their largest rate even in history, under Biden.
“His reckless spending dug our economy into a hole and sent the cost-of-living through the roof.” Are we talking Trump or Biden and has this lady picked up a newspaper lately? SSA cola for 2024 is 3.2% and 1.75% estimated for 2025. Economic strength, as measured by GDP growth says Trump delivered 2.6% and 2q’s of negative growth defined as recession. Biden, so far, is over 3% gdp growth. In 2023, was close to 6% one year and will end up well over 3% in four years.
“The worst inflation in 40 years. The highest credit card debt in history.” Except Inflation was 3.4% in 2023, estimated for 2024 to be 3.2%. Credit card debt, which fell to lowest levels in the pandemic are indeed highest ever now. Due to inflation, interest rate rise, and overspending, it’s bad, gonna get worse, and people are being trapped. This is a bad one for sure but electing Trump will not change that; she has no plan.
“And despite what he tells you, our communities are not safer.” It’s not him, it’s the crime statistics you newspaper phobic ninny. Murders dropped by record numbers in 2023, might be largest drop in history. It’s still too high, but fairly equivalent to Trump’s highest number. Violent crime probably follows this trend.
She claims life in America is more dangerous but does not mention mass shootings. Why? The NRA? She says we abandon our allies, we are in retreat, Terrorists are slaughtering Americans, China is buying our farms, spying on our military installations, and spreading propaganda through tiktok.
NATO has never been stronger, adding members. Trump mandated we leave Afghanistan. Trump left the Kurds in a trap. China’s land purchases have lessened and they own less than 1% of foreign farmland purchase with Canada owning around 33%. Spying on military installations and spreading propaganda by China —- really? Got facts or just spreading fear.
“Just ask yourself, are you better off now than you were three years ago?” Try 2020 for example…..
This lying Britt said quoted a complete lie about a sex trafficking victim who herself said Britt lied, never met with her one on one, she was never trafficked by cartels, and never in the US.
Britt said Biden stopped the construction of the border wall. While the president did pause construction when he entered office, Biden later commissioned additional building work on the wall.
Britt’s claim about Biden stopping deportations is also misleading. In his first 100 days in office, his administration attempted to pause deportations of some immigrants but not all. Criminal continued to be deported.
Britt serves up fear, lots of FUD, but very few facts. She offers no alternative plans beyond Trump. It’s a very weak tea.
Frank Stetson … Such a long rambling screed that has nothing to do with the commentary. It is so old you. LOL
Hey dickhead. What party is in charge? Stfu asshole. It’s entirely the democrats fault
All that said is fine, but I do not give a Rats Ass about what Britt said.
She should have said 2 minuets of NOTHING and just shook her head.
Or better said ” DON”T ” like the Dumb Ass President.
NOTHING Britt or Biden is going to change what people feel every day, see every day, and
are forced to live with every day.
Biden drove this Titanic directly into the Ice Berg, now the Dems are saying
you can put some Ice in your drink easier.
The ones pulling the white house strings has to have the lowest IQ’s of any Gay Transgender individuals
on this planet.
And the beholden Biden will do anything they say.
Why doesn’t he play the fiddle as America Burns?
Not to worry Democrats. Biden will win the same way he won in 2020. The fix is in. The difference between Hillary and Biden is that Biden wins the elections that are rigged for him.
Sarge: you have no proof, you tried over 65 times in court — you lost almost all of them, many tossed as stupid, not worthy of even being in court. You tried a half dozen recounts with your own people —- you lost every one. Trump blamed early voting and now Trump and the RNC advocate Republicans vote early……
So come on man, show us the money…….
Oh yeah —Trump’s fixer went to jail, they attempted a cover up to hide Trump’s sexcades with Playmate model and another one, a porn star, to avoid it coming out for the 2016 election. That case for Trump’s election rigging starts now in April. But as far as Biden giving America a Titanic moment, nope, you can’t support that.
Crime is down, GDP is up, yada, yada, yada. The border is bad but better first two months of 2024, would be getting even better if Republicans could pass a bipartisan constructed bill. Credit card debt is really bad, that’s
Oh yeah, three attorneys for former President Donald Trump have pled guilty of racketeering to tamper in tih 2020 Presidential election in Georgia. They agreed to testify against Trump and others. More will tumble before September, but trial won’t be this year, unless a judicial dam breaks. Right now, the charge with the famous phone call is dropped. For now.
No, I think we know who tried to rig the 2016 and 2020 elections, lawyers went to jail, lawyers are awaiting punishet for pleading guilty. It was Republicans. Democrats have not been indicted and there is no cogent evidence of any Democratic rigging of the 2016 or 2020 elections to any statiscally significan degree.
Darren, feel free to have feelings, they are yours. I can share some facts, provide my opinion, but cannot change feelings, that’s up to you. But crime is down, inflation is down, even border crossings crashed first two months of 2024, although not sure if not just a seaonal blip. GDP up, market up, wages up, jobs up, unemployment down, credit card debt way up — that’s a bad one, but not sure what Biden can do, and yes —- inflation is part of that. Yes, I keep saying many are not feeling it, many have pangs of pandemic pain still, the memories run deep. But facts are our friends and the numbers, nationally, are pretty damn good except the credit card debt. But clearly some feel left behind and all the facts in the world won’t help until you feel you are in the same rowboat as I.
Wow!!!!!!! Just wait until next time.
Richard,
Yawn, sigh. Can’t wait, can’t wait, show us, show us now.
Still waiting for you to show us from the last time. The Capitol crap fest was a bust. Mayor Bowser dogged you down pretty fast, internet sleuths sealed your fate. So many captured, so many in jail. So many blame TRUMP for their actions. They sounded just like you.
What, too scared to explain this bold and beautiful plan?
Keep yawning. Maybe you can suck trumps dick.
Nice to know that whenever Richard hears about an open mouth, he thinks first of sucking dick. Obession is more than a perfume.
Speaking of other topics….this one is all about who is saying what; Horist on Biden’s SoTu, me on Britt’s response, as expected. But Horist does not want to discuss that, feels it is out of place, off limits, tangent. It is not.
Likewise, for all Americans, I ask you to tune into Trump again. I know it’s hard, half of you already know what he thinks and the other half just can’t feel more pain, would rather be comfortably numb. Come November, we can’t do that. We have to listen to both of these guys and think about our choices.
For Trump, when you listen, you hear him spinning out of control more and more every day. He’s always answered shock with more shock, block the sun of any other news with his lies. Now he’s just derange on his vendetta of retribution and revenge.
I keep writing on PBP — listen to the guy. Believe him in that Trump’s 2024 will begin where 1.6.2021 left off. He’s not the political outsider Obama-Press-Club-Roast-Avenger running in 2016 with all our guardrails in place. He’s 2024 Trump, leader of the Republican party and all things conservative, full of remorse, revenge, and retribution. He has a list of who’s naughty or nice, he better knows the law and where the guardrails are, the few that are left and he knows how to quickly install his sycophants in power, true sycophants —- not like Tillerson, Sessions, McConnell, Kelly, and those other tossers.
But true Trumplicants like his DIL, Hawely, MTG, and even the criminal Manafort who made millions off Putin sycophants in Ukraine to rig their elections to Russian interests. He’s baaaaaaack after going to jail for lying about that, and other things, and then being pardoned by the King. That will be Trump’s government.
Start by reading the 1.6.2021 speeches, Trump and his trusted friends. Does that sound like 2016? Then read the current rally transcripts. He is upping the ante to block out the media sun allowing only Trumpian focus on more and more escalations of violence. It’s not hyperbole, it’s not locker room talk, it’s the straight skinny. And it’s not 2017-2021, it’s what is he saying now.
Dictator for a day.
Immigrants to be treated as vermin.
A proud political dissident desiring his judgement day.
Will release all 1.6.2021 criminals, even felons and seditionists, calls them hostages and patriots: they are convicted criminals, each and every one.
a rabid mob of radical left Democrat partisans masquerading as judges and juries and prosecutors
“No, I would not protect you,” Trump recalled telling that president. “In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want. You got to pay. You got to pay your bills.”
“If I don’t get elected, it’s gonna be a bloodbath for the whole — that’s gonna be the least of it — it’s gonna be a bloodbath for the country, that’ll be the least of it”
immigrants “poisoning the blood of our country,” echoing Adolf Hitler.
And he cast Biden’s handling of the border as “a conspiracy to overthrow the United States of America.
Jewish people who vote for Democrats “hate Israel” and “hate their religion”.
Any Jewish person that votes for Democrats hates their religion. They hate everything about Israel and they should be ashamed of themselves because Israel will be destroyed.”
Perhaps you and I can talk like that, but rarely has a Presidential candidate talked like this and never has a President spoken such words of violence and hate against his fellow citizens. Some may feel it’s about time, others may feel it’s lesser of two evils, others — many others — will just ignore it and look the other way. DON’T. He means what he says and he says what he mean and only luck and our institutions block him. He is better at overthrowing our institutional barriers than in 2016.
Think mafia and a full on crime family war as a possibility if Trump is able to work his “list.” And this rhetoric is only getting worse. There is nothing in the Republican party to stop him. And he cares little for the law, less for the Constitution, and nothing for us, the people.
Frank WHEN Trump wins will you be leaving the country? People like you will be obsolete. You’re a curse upon the country now
Richard’s answer: it depends.
Fair enough question, asked almost politely. Of course I ask you the same in reverse.
I’m a bit of a nomad, moved every five years growing up until this last stint for raising familly keeping me in the NJ of my birth and I have always laughed when people said that. From either side of the aisle. But it’s different now because of our divide and perhaps my age. The guns, the violence, you people fear asylum seekers, I fear whacks-with-guns. If I am gone tommorow, no one will say “too soon.” So you’re snarkey comments above are second rate, at best. Get in line behind the reaper.
I am wrapping things up here, covid slowed us down a bit, but I am pretty liquid, scaled down, and ready for my next move. NJ property taxes are the highest in the nation and I have some property. As you can tell, I don’t associate well with a lot of people, so I desire a lot of room :>) One downsizing and we would be history the next day. I also have lived rural all my life so didn’t even consider the city, and never had an issue in the country except guns and hunting where we always came to an accomodation about who really owned my land……
I probably will move soon and for the first time in a half century, there are many States I probably will avoid. I am not young, folks in America seem to value the old less and less, and I just don’t need needless, stupid, usless, conflict about who’s doin what in gubermint. It’s bad enough online, but I really don’t need real time in-your-face for no gain.
I don’t want to go to the city, but now will reject a number of states, like most of the deep south to texas, can’t do ca except to visit, need seasons, so feeling more restricted than the past. I just don’t want to support some of this shit and why would I pay them to allow it when I can live somewhere else. Now if that feeling goes national, one never knows. Be here’s the rub: I have fuck-you-money so I don’t care where I go and I go where I please. I have few financial barriers. Why not open it up to other countries. Some of them would even beckon my money. Heck, I can go English language and still have plenty of choices. And while you say I’m a curse, I’m obsolete, I will let my money talk and it says: fuck you, and I will do as I please. So, yeah, I might have a international set of choices, probably won’t, but I will look because I will never be traveling so light ever again.
I can even afford to pack up and rent for awhile anywhere in the world. No issues.
And herein lies the second issue with fuck-you-money. When it leaves, it says “fuck you” to you. Because my stats are higher than average for making, spending, investing, my fy money and that will leave too. As in KMAYOYO, kiss my ass, you’re on your own. Because unless you plan ahead and steal my money, it’s gone and I am most certainly above average in every economic statistic you can think of. So sure, I don’t matter as an individual statistic, I don’t register a blip. But 100 of me is a cult, 1,000 is an idea, 10,000 is a movement, the fuck-you-money disappearing act and your left holding the bag movement. And there’s over 150 million of me, just as there are of you. Approximately. So, have it your way —- drive 50% of the country out as cursed, obsolete, citizens. Reap what you sow as your GDP drops 50%. Sure, hyper inflated, but trust me —- we do matter. Work, money, even values, we matter. Just as much as you do. Fact is we are all in this together and cursing a noticable portion as cursed and obsolete will not benefit you, or I, in the long run. We need to find the win-win in all of this. So, it depends, I will look because I feel restricted in choice in the good ole US of A.
OK, take down the rainbow flag, c u tommorrow.
Frank Stetson … That may be the most pathetic posting I have ever seen on PBP. In the past, you often bragged about your wealth in ways that made it appear that is how you value yourself as a person — assuming that would impress people. In this posting you have underscored that appearance with so many self-praising references to you money. Tie that to your obsessive desire to be heard and considered a person of unique intelligence, and you only show a very sad individual desperate for attention. It explains a lot … and I truly feel sorry for you.
Horist, be truthful, you don’t one bit of sorrow for me. The concept of FUCK YOU MONEY, John Goodman, from The Gambler, a classic dialog from 2014 which I realize might be too modern in thinking for you. It really isn’t a modern idea, it’s just that your old-style thinking seems to make it so…. From the movie:
“You get up two and a half million dollars, any asshole in the world knows what to do: you get a house with a 25 year roof, an indestructible Jap-economy shitbox, you put the rest into the system at three to five percent to pay your taxes and that’s your base, get me? That’s your fortress of fucking solitude. That puts you, for the rest of your life, at a level of fuck you. Somebody wants you to do something, fuck you. Boss pisses you off, fuck you! Own your house. Have a couple bucks in the bank. Don’t drink. That’s all I have to say to anybody on any social level. Did your grandfather take risks?”
” I guarantee he did it from a position of fuck you. A wise man’s life is based around fuck you. The United States of America is based on fuck you. You’re a king? You have an army? Greatest navy in the history of the world? Fuck you! Blow me. We’ll fuck it up ourselves.”
Repeating the conclusion: “Fuck you! Blow me!”
Fact is your hatred blinded you to my point which decidedly was not about ME: “But 100 of me is a cult, 1,000 is an idea, 10,000 is a movement, the fuck-you-money disappearing act and your left holding the bag movement. And there’s over 150 million of me, just as there are of you. Approximately. So, have it your way —- drive 50% of the country out as cursed, obsolete, citizens. Reap what you sow as your GDP drops 50%. Sure, hyper inflated, but trust me —- we do matter.”
I am not alone in this thinking. Goodman said it, someone wrote it, they made an entire movie around it. We do matter, Mr. Horist, as do you. We are not the pathetic braggarts who only value ourselves pecuniarily that you surmise. And somehow, I don’t think my understanding of fuck-you money is anything more that what it is. An understanding. Only people without money think the way you do. Need a buck to buy a clue?
Frank Stetson … Thank you for proving my point. You see your money as a big fuck you to the world. You seem to admire the movie rant based on an angry fuck-you attitude that is based on … money. You say that only people without money think as I do. LOL That is just (fucking) stupid. You connection of money with self importance is not unique. It puts you into the same group as … uh … Trump. AND, you win the award for having the greatest number of F-words per word count — not exactly the mark of intelligent, adult, civil dialoged that you PRETEND to favor even as you carry on consistently nasty and insulting postings. And using vulgar dialogue from a movie as an example of your philosophy of life reveals the real you — and proves my characterization of you was spot on. In a word … pathetic.
Horist, you just don’t get it. At a certain point, money buys you a certain amount of freedom. Your readers suggested I leave the country, I am a curse, and I am obsolete as they asked that perenial question asked by both sides: if the other side wins, will you leave. That is the subject under discussion.
I answered that I never thought that before, now I am thinking possibly, and one of the major reasons is I am finanically free to do so easily. Second, IF I did so, and many others too, then those who remain will be affected, by the asssets and investments that will leave also.
Let me ask you: do you feel as free to move anywhere in the US and you might have ten years ago? I love Florida, Orlando espeically but the gulf coast and maybe even the panhandle. Alabama coast too. But now…… I really don’t think so. Decades and a dozen moves and I never thought that before. Partly age but mostly that the divisions are becoming louder every day.
Don’t get caught up in the personal anectdote and color commentary from the movies, they were just framing my point, which, of course, you overlook.
Yes, in your eyes, I am pathetic, a loser, inferior, blah de blah de blah. And you are still a pugacious prick when you act like this. But it was an honest explanation of why I may leave the country and why that actually may not be the best thing for those who remain. If I am not alone.
Just a thought piece, I thank you for once again reading, and I would like to say I appreciate your comments, but not like this. Sorry.
Frank Stetson … Of course I get it. More money gives a personal more options. Duh! To answer your question … “no” I would not leave the country if Biden is reelected. If I did, I might have selected China. Love the culture and the people. Unfortunately, President Xi takes that option off the table. I do not recall calling you a “loser” — and never “inferior.” Despite differences, I never consider myself to be superior person — just different. But AGAIN you are making up crap for your imaginary Larry Horist. And you AGAIN display amazing arrogance in thinking that your departure — and even a few others — would impact on America because of your money (investments). If you want to understand your impact, take a cup of water out of the ocean and measure the impact. LOL AGAIN, you overstate the importance of money. And you have noticed that I am giving you more attention lately than you deserve. It is just that I have a bit of spare time this week — and your postings are becoming more personal. And do not be sorry that you do not like my responses. I am not fond of a lot or yours — and I am not sorry at all.