This may be difficult to hear. But sitting with other PBP contributors, the more we talked, the more sure we became.
We have already shown that Zelenskyy has already capitulated to Putin. He publicly offered everything Putin wanted, as stated by the Russian government press releases at the beginning of the war. Putin’s demand and Zelenskyy’s offer match, there is no other way to look at this.
Our conclusion is simple and to the point.
Zelenskyy has been bought off.
We believe he has just been personally bought off, likely paid over $1 Billion (directly or perhaps personally offered a “partnership” in the “new trading regime”) to end the war and provide Putin a smooth route to his desired outcome.
This week he is showing a brave face, challenging Putin, trying to dictate terms.
We believe Zelenskyy the actor is acting.
Here is our reasoning:
— Zelenskyy has realized that NATO is not coming to his defense.
— This is a “plata o plomo” situation. Zelenskyy has a good possibility of being killed along with all of this family and his country destroyed. Ooooooor, take the money, save lives and be rich.
— Russia has the wherewithal to finish the war, but it is less expensive to buy off Zelenskyy and his group than to continue using military force to smash a country that it really wants to remain intact.
— All intelligence agencies, the CIA, KGB (now FSB), the GRU, the French Surete, the Mossad and the rest are in the business of persuading people to bend to their will. Paying people off (silver or “plata”) is ALWAYS first on the agenda. And this has been on (ex-KGB) Putin’s tactical map from the beginning. The “plomo” (lead, as in bullet) threat is always less desirable.
— Ukraine has continually ranked among the most corrupt countries in the world.
— Rumor has it that Zelenskyy has already received millions of dollars from western companies and U.S. diplomats. Some estimates of his net worth exceed $600 million. This is not substantiated (and can’t be, as long as he is careful), but would be a data point in this direction, if true.
— Oliver Stone’s movie “Ukraine Under Fire” describes the history of a Ukraine continually under pressure from both east and west, having a rich tradition of switching allegiances in the middle of a battle.
— Zelenskyy will save Ukrainian lives by surrendering early. (It will also cost lives, see below.)
— Per our previous article, Zelenskyy has publicly offered Putin everything he wanted.
This is not entirely corrupt and disgusting on Zelenskyy’s part. It will actually be the best option for Ukraine since the alternative is continued pounding and destruction of his beautiful country. For those of us who bother to track events (we are talking to people on the ground in Ukraine), a Russian military victory was never really in doubt.
Predictions
Nothing is simple here. Zelenskyy has a problem.
For public consumption, Zelenskyy must maintain his resistance and pride while he negotiates vast parts of his country away. If this ends too soon, people will smell a rat.
Some of the Ukrainian nationalist forces will never surrender to Russia and will indeed try to kill Zelenskyy if they catch wind of the deal.
The cynical analyst in me says that the fighting must continue for a while, until Zelenskyy can send these potential enemies into the meat grinder where either they will be surrounded and captured by the Russians or killed outright. The cynical analyst says that the Russians likely know where the ammunition stores are kept so that they can (or have been) destroyed and the end will be less bloody.
This is borne out by current military movements. The “40 mile convoy” is leaving the Kyiv area. CNN believes Russia is withdrawing. Nope. Watch as Ukrainian forces in the east are drawn into a vacuum and then watch the 40 mile forces swoop in from the north to flank them.
So the war will continue for a couple of weeks while Zelenskyy consolidates his power, displays his sorrowful soul to the Ukrainian people and prepares for transition to the Russian regime.
In the end, Zelenskyy will still ask for Western aid to help rebuild his country. He will get it. And Zelenskyy and Russia will face the world hand in hand and make it impossible for the world to continue sanctions on Russia.
Sorry folks, CNN’s declaration of victory for Ukraine is utter BS. The Biden Administration has been played.