
<p>In a very real sense, the world democracies are already at war with Russia over Ukraine. ; NATO, the European Union and other nations scattered around the world have united to sanction Russia and many of its leaders. ; They have seized property. ; They are taking in Ukrainian refugees. ; They are providing humanitarian supplies. They are providing intelligence information. ; They are training Ukrainian soldiers. They are committing a massive amount of military equipment. ; And there are mercenaries from many western nations that have put boots on the ground in Ukraine. ; Russian soldiers are dying from bullets provided by the west.</p>



<p>All the aforementioned responses have been in the form of “mission creep.” ; The current level of sanctions was not imposed at the onset of the war. ; They evolved. ; Mission creep. ; The decision to send heavier and more offensive weapons – including fighter jets &#8211;was not made initially. ; Mission creep. ; Western weapons were not used to attack inside Russia. ; Now they are. ; Mission creep. ; Foreign mercenaries tacitly approved and supported by western nations were not involved in the early days of the war. ; Now they are. ; Mission creep. ; The original goal was to deter Russian expansion. ; Now the goal is to force Russia to withdraw from all Ukrainian territory. ; Mission creep.</p>



<p>The only element of war that is yet to be seen in Ukraine is the boots of western armies on the ground &#8212; and the pilots of western air forces in the air. ; And without that, Russia is poised to win the war.</p>



<p>War with Russia seems inevitable because Putin has shown a willingness and ability to escalate his genocidal war against the Ukrainian people no matter how much the western response creeps short of boots on the ground. ; AND …Putin has a LOT more escalating possibilities – more than the nuclear arsenal.</p>



<p>May 9<sup>th</sup> is Victory Day in Russia. ; Putin is planning to have a major declaration of victory for the Russian people. ; Certainly, he will brag about driving the “Nazis” out of Mariupol. ; He will talk about the gains Russia has made on the ground.</p>



<p>But perhaps the most important announcement could be an official declaration of war on Ukraine. ; So far, it is a “special Operation.” ; So, what is the difference, you ask? ; A BIG difference. ; A declaration of war would enable Putin to call out the Russian reserves – adding tens of thousands of boots on the ground and a virtually unlimited amount of military equipment – second-rate as it may be – into the conflict.</p>



<p>Without the boots and the wings of western fighters, Putin would eventually take over all of Ukraine and Moldova – and move Russia from a second-rate nation with a pipsqueak dictator to leading military and economic force in the world with a powerful leader – malignant as he may be. ; Most importantly, he would be a viable threat to the nations of eastern NATO – the old “captive nations” of Putin’s hibernating Soviet Union.</p>



<p>While there is a lot of talk about the necessity to defeat Russia, there is very little analysis of what that would take. ; The tough talk is merely aspirational – lacking a plan and a commitment. That is because a defeat of Russia means regime change – and no one is willing to talk about that out loud.</p>



<p>So, there ‘tis.</p>



<p><em>Part 2 will deal with the advantages Russia would gain if Putin can take Ukraine and Moldova. It is more than geography.</em></p>