Events are moving quickly in terms of Ukraine. As the Biden administration has correctly noted, Putin now has everything he needs at the border to mount a major invasion. But as the White House has repeatedly said, there is still time for diplomacy. According to Associated Press, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov – Putin’s top negotiator – is said to have advised his boss that there is still the possibility of a diplomatic solution.
So, what has changed?
Weeell … after publicly rejecting all of Putin’s demands, there appears to be a bit of softness in the Biden position. Putin had demanded that Ukraine and every other nation he deems to belong to Russia be barred from ever joining NATO. He wants NATO to draw back its defense to the 1990s level — prior to the fall of the old Soviet Union. He wants no western military in any of the non-NATO nations.
Other than a promise to not invade Ukraine at this time, Putin offers nothing in return. Why the United States has not put the return of the Crimea and the withdrawal from the Donbas Region on the negotiating table is a mystery – unless you consider weakness and incompetence.
Now … according to Lavrov, the United States is willing to consider some concessions – including limits on NATO missile deployment, restrictions on military drills in Eastern Europe and what was described as “confidence building measures” – whatever that means.
Should Biden — and ergo NATO — concede to these demands, Putin will have won a huge victory. His seizing of the Crimea will be that much more confirmed by international acquiescence. He will still be able to push in an internal civil war in Ukraine through the Donbas Region and there will be no curtailment of cyber warfare.
Most importantly, Putin has the option to take up the invasion scheme again in the future. There will be no agreement from Putin to accept Ukraine as an independent nation and honor its borders.
It is said that if you ain’t winning, you’re losing. So far, Biden has been losing big time – largely because he threw away all the aces in his hand.
So, there ‘tis.