The mainstream media has widely reported a missile hitting the train station in Kramatorsk, ostensibly a Russian missile, demonstrating the callousness of the Russian military, and constituting a war crime.
But what if the missile was fired by Ukrainian forces?
If it was fired by Ukrainian forces by accident, it shows that Ukraine is using the opportunity to falsely blame the Russians to get the sympathy of the West. I’m not sure I would blame them for that since admitting that you killed some of your own people would be devastating to your reputation. You just don’t make such admissions while the outcome of a war is in doubt.
Some extreme Russia supporters are claiming they did it themselves for the express purpose of accusing the Russians of war crimes in front of the rest of the world. Despite a recent history of brutal skirmishes by the Ukrainian military, I could be wrong but I don’t believe even the most ardent Ukrainians would do this.
I’m sure this will be argued for a very long time, and I’m not in a position to verify any evidence.
But evidence there is.
First, this is said to be the booster of the missile that hit the train station.
The U.S. Pentagon apparently “confirmed” that is was shot by Russia, but if you read their actual words, that is their guess based on public communications, not by any technical intelligence data.
This is a Tochka-U missile. It is standard in the Ukrainian military. My sources say that these have been long discontinued from the Russian military but may have been pulled out of storage for this invasion.
So both sides have the missile, but Ukraine is using more of them, best I can see.
A video, directly from the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs shows a comparison of serial numbers.
And before you say it, yes, I agree this is just as likely to be fabricated as real. But then again, we know that the propaganda from the Ukrainian side is just as fierce.
So reputation of sources is a wash.
This appears to compare serial numbers of the fired missile with one known to be from Ukrainian inventory. Click on the image to see the whole video.
Russia had no reason to bomb the train station. Indeed they have been relatively (in war terms) careful with civilians and were encouraging civilians to leave the area. It doesn’t fit with their strategy at the moment.
And before you accuse me of defending Russia, this is not a moral judgment. I think Russia is perfectly capable of being brutal to civilians. But from what I have seen this is not their strategy right now.
My impression is that Russian soldiers are better trained than Ukrainian soldiers, and the price of disobedience or mistakes would be higher for Russian soldiers. Embarrassing Putin could be a fatal mistake, so toe-ing the line would have some incentive behind it.
Be your own judge. Believe the gratuitous assertions by the CNN, MSNBC and others that it was a Russian attack? Or be a skeptic like me and look at the facts rationally?
Based on what I know, I believe it was an accident, and the culprit is the Ukrainian military.
What do you think?