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Ukraine Train Station Attack – What if the Ukrainians Did It?

Ukraine Train Station Attack – What if the Ukrainians Did It?

The mainstream media has widely reported a missile hitting the train station in Kramatorsk, ostensibly a Russian missile, demonstrating the callousness of the Russian military, and constituting a war crime.

But what if the missile was fired by Ukrainian forces?

If it was fired by Ukrainian forces by accident, it shows that Ukraine is using the opportunity to falsely blame the Russians to get the sympathy of the West. I’m not sure I would blame them for that since admitting that you killed some of your own people would be devastating to your reputation. You just don’t make such admissions while the outcome of a war is in doubt.

Some extreme Russia supporters are claiming they did it themselves for the express purpose of accusing the Russians of war crimes in front of the rest of the world. Despite a recent history of brutal skirmishes by the Ukrainian military, I could be wrong but I don’t believe even the most ardent Ukrainians would do this.

I’m sure this will be argued for a very long time, and I’m not in a position to verify any evidence.

But evidence there is.

First, this is said to be the booster of the missile that hit the train station.

The U.S. Pentagon apparently “confirmed” that is was shot by Russia, but if you read their actual words, that is their guess based on public communications, not by any technical intelligence data.

This is a Tochka-U missile. It is standard in the Ukrainian military. My sources say that these have been long discontinued from the Russian military but may have been pulled out of storage for this invasion.

So both sides have the missile, but Ukraine is using more of them, best I can see.

A video, directly from the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs shows a comparison of serial numbers.

And before you say it, yes, I agree this is just as likely to be fabricated as real. But then again, we know that the propaganda from the Ukrainian side is just as fierce.

So reputation of sources is a wash.

This appears to compare serial numbers of the fired missile with one known to be from Ukrainian inventory. Click on the image to see the whole video.

Russia had no reason to bomb the train station. Indeed they have been relatively (in war terms) careful with civilians and were encouraging civilians to leave the area.  It doesn’t fit with their strategy at the moment.

And before you accuse me of defending Russia, this is not a moral judgment. I think Russia is perfectly capable of being brutal to civilians. But from what I have seen this is not their strategy right now.

My impression is that Russian soldiers are better trained than Ukrainian soldiers, and the price of disobedience or mistakes would be higher for Russian soldiers.  Embarrassing Putin could be a fatal mistake, so toe-ing the line would have some incentive behind it.

Be your own judge. Believe the gratuitous assertions by the CNN, MSNBC and others that it was a Russian attack? Or be a skeptic like me and look at the facts rationally?

Based on what I know, I believe it was an accident, and the culprit is the Ukrainian military.

What do you think?

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  1. frank stetson

    Wow, you are just full of ideas……

    If you wonder about this one……and you wonder if Zelenskyy has sold out and will send the Ukrainian troops tot their death……and you wonder if Russia/Saudi’s/China will become a new “evil axis,” I wonder if you think pigs will fly?

    I think their is adequate proof of war crimes conducted by Russia with Putin holding the top responsibility. I think Russia has shown similar patterns in Syria, Afghanistan, Chechnya, and Georgia. As to each photograph being evidence of a crime, probably not. The Ukrainians are extremely good at putting their story into the media, a good thing. But I tend to question the bomb’s note of “for the children” being generated before the missile lifted off. Kind of a weird sentiment even for the evil empire…..

    But that’s just a matter of where is the line, I have little doubt that guys who pushed barrel bombs out of helicopters onto civilian apartment complexes, hospitals and schools in Syria would have issues with what’s being reported out of Ukraine.

    I think your imaginations put forth as possibilities is not helpful to anyone. Better to focus on what’s being reported, and by who than to engage in guesses.

    • Joe Gilbertson

      Just because the mainstream media all are in lock step doesn’t mean they are correct. Lots of evidence that they are full of crap. Maybe you should just watch CNN, if you want to be happy all of the time.

      • frank stetson

        This is true. What is also true is that most folk, even around here, think you are full of crap on this one. Enjoy the stink.

        • Joe Gilbertson


  2. R. Hamilton

    Most of your post, IMO maybe but probably not; “My impression is that Russian soldiers are better trained than Ukrainian soldiers”, DEFINITELY NOT. Not all Russian soldiers are equal. Their best are doubtless very capable, but most of them in this conflict are not even nearly their best, most are cannon fodder that had been sold their own propaganda, and aren’t happy about it. And western countries were training some of the Ukrainians prior to the invasion; or rather, training the trainers (which gets more done). So even if the Ukrainians might have been on their own lesser, they had help, and they certainly are more motivated; Putin getting you later is one thing (assuming you don’t just defect), the other guys making war on everyone you know is quite another.

    • Joe Gilbertson

      Hmmmm… On one hand, Russias training budget is vastly superior, but you may have a point that Ukraine has been war torn for several years and they may have some experience. I’m doubting that the CIA has spent much time training them on soviet missile tech, and they are certainly not there now. But since Russia pulled these missiles out of retirement, they may be lacking experience as well. An accident either way, on some very, very old technology.

      • frank stetson

        ten times the Ukrainian budget to be exact. and then ours is even more than ten times that of Russia’s. But it’s still a big budget for Russia so you can imagine which account Putin might skim from….. It’s just that the Russian economy is just not that big, not that robust.

        All along I keep telling you Russia has the economy of Italy. Can you imagine Italy coming up with advanced missile, drone, satellite, jet fighter, nuclear sub, etc. etc. etc. programs to rival ours? And they are focused on oil and wheat, not a diversified economy. Heck, the oil price drop must have hurt; and then with the recent giant inflation, perhaps that was in Putin’s thinking. As in no better time to do this; I can offer 50% off my oil and still be making more than the years before inflation. What better time to risk war.

        But look at the military tech. I mean we have 8,000 tanks; they have over 13,000, a lot in storage which means they run really well. Who has that many tanks? Sounds like patching together WWII tech….. We have over 21,000 jet fighters, they have 4,500. We have over 1,000 drones, they have 50. Get the picture. They seem to be milking old technology and not investing in new technology, especially in the crucial area of “death from above.” Even, as Joe noted, this missile seems mothballed.

        Doesn’t it seem like the second time in history that the emperor has no clothes? First time was Regan’s surprise after spending our futures on arms escalation against Russia only to find they didn’t have the cash to match. And now this: isn’t it strange that a smaller group of motivated individuals packing tank killers on their backs, jet downers too, and drones from above is beating the tar out of one of the largest military in the world. Doesn’t it seem like the battle between quality and quantity? Almost feels like coming up against the Indians after the repeating rifle hit the ranks. Don’t know to be true, but sure seems like it.

        And a mini hint was the barrel bombs in Syria; sure ,cheap, but can’t get much lower technology than than a barrel bomb. It just seems they don’t have the tech to do the surgical strikes that we do, so they opt for older tech and the blunt hammer approach of terrorizing non-combatants via carpet attacks. While we think this is Putin’s “style,” it may be the best he can do with the tools at hand.

        And at ten times their budget, I would hope our killing shit would be better. That said, we all know the Ukrainians should lose, but sure seems strange that they may not. Putin also has the autocrats problem: no one gives him bad news, and his conscripts are that: forced to fight. Democracy, diversity, and a motivated volunteer army probably yields of better result. Which is why to all volunteers in our forces, I say: THANK YOU FOR YOUR SERVICE VOLUNTEERING TO KEEP AMERICA FREE

  3. Angelika

    If a country doesn’t want to get accused of war crimes/genocide than don’t attack/invade a Sovereign country = THAT SIMPLE……

    • Joe Gilbertson

      That is true. It is almost automatic today.

      • ben

        There’s the accusation and then the conviction……. Pretty hard and fast rules for both as to what constitutes a War Crime, tis red letter law, but still hard to prove.

  4. Tom

    This articles are full of “what ifs” and “best I can sees” which are garbage just like many of your articles. Your garbage is not even worth reading anymore.

    • Larry kuhn

      So quit reading it and posting.

      • ben

        We do, for anything kuhn.

        • Larry kuhN

          That’s Mr. Kuhn to you

          • ben

            i KUHN DO THAT

    • Joe Gilbertson

      What you don’t seem to notice, is that the whole war has been “what ifs.” And the biggest lies are the “facts” that everyone is sure about.

      For example, do you honestly believe that Russia was defeated in Kiev, and that Ukraine is winning this war?

      • frank stetson

        It’s war, I believe very little as not being propaganda.

        But that still does not mean you need to throw more shit on the compost heap.

        • Joe Gilbertson

          I’m looking at news from both sides, guarantee you I am closer to the truth than CNN.

  5. Poorgrandchildren

    If the liars/propagandists in the mainstream media reported that Russians hit the train station in Kramatorsk with a missile, smart money is betting that someone else did it. If they say hello, they’re lying about something.

  6. tom

    Give me a break! Will not even dignify such stupidity with a response! Well on second though….what are the rusky pos paying you?

    • Joe Gilbertson

      Question is when do I get bought off by the Biden admin to toe the party line? I’m waiting, but until then I’ll call ’em like I see ’em.

  7. frank stetson

    Yeah, well Fox smells it’s own hole…….this dog don’t hunt……and just cuz you call em as you see em, don’t mean you’re not bat-shit crazy. And the answer, according to the crowd is…….and remember, if everyone says it, it must be a fact.

    • Miles collins

      The democrats did it. They are the axis of evil. Seriously. This shit wouldn’t be going on until the Trump administration. Stealing elections can really throw shit in the game

      • Joe Gilbertson

        Trump certainly would have prevented this.

  8. j Boost

    A Russian(?) missile (?) struck the street in front to Kramatorsk Station

    It killed near 50 people. That is a War Crime. But, looking at the scene, there are some questions left. But let us first describe the scene: There is a lovely station building in pink bricks or tiles – with high windows. The walls and the inside hall, however, seem undamaged – although a missile of median size is said to have exploded outside it, slightly left.

    An impact is on the pavement there – but that is not bigger than it would be from an “egg” hand-grenade – no, much less. Three cars on the street just by that curb, however, look as if they had been flattened by a 50kg bomb: all burnt out, one totally flattened, one sideways, the one near the station door the boot blown open (correct direction)

    The missile on the small bit of lawn oppsite better fits the term “rocket”, as it is of a type that was, maybe, in the Soviet arsenal at about 1955-60. It is old and not of the type that could be fired from one of today’s launchers, with stiff stabilizers and, between motor and first steering section, falling apart. – Somebody wrote on it (in Kyrillitsa: ZA DETEI = FOR CHILDREN ! – which would be the most brutal sarcasm possible – BUT: the script is without scratches or breaks. That “someone” was here, in Kramatorsk: It is sheer BAD PROPAGANDA!

    One more detail: That impact on the pavement is far too minimal to have been caused by such a rocket of near 40-50 cm diameter. The explosion was sizeable, as the cars show, but it does not fit a) the pavement hole, nor b) the unblemished station wall, nor c) this rocket – not showing big explosion marks and appearing as if it had just ”bumped” on the grassy patch across the road (need to check if it has ever flown.)

    Later “News” avoid the actual front scene (is there anything too obvious? Possibly, YES!) And they mention “Two Missiles” (is that one we have not enough? – It’s Greed).
    The front of the station shows some strewn about items, like tenting, different things, also children’s’ toys – but not really traces of a great massacre. Nothing like Maidan or Odessa: Not much blood, body parts, etc. – as to be expected of 50 victims of an explosion. –

    Thus: It’s unclear what was going on there at the critical time. It could have been anything from people arriving for a train, a military convoy, or just a few people. But – A BIG MASSACRE-EXPLOSION DOES NOT LEAVE A CLEAN FORE-FRONT! with the road surface not blown – no things hanging in trees or at station windows (“things” that do not belong there – parts of cars, clothing, humans)

    The real targets of a deliberate war crime or mass murder would have been on the other side of the solid old building, on the platforms – and I had seen, the day before, that these were packed, so to speak, to the brim. THAT would have been mass murder – but they were sheltered by the building. – They were no targets! – Too much even for the stomachs of Mssrs. Paruby, Parasiuk, Pashinsky, “Our Yats” or successors.

    Only by its side, some debris had been blown towards the tracks, but not beyond. And windows to the platform had been blown through – but only fell not far from the frame.
    I dare say: This scene reminds me of the Maidan – NOT because of its strange details, but because of its equally conflicting claims of the “perpetrator”: For the Maidan, the Rada Commission immediately after found that there had been NO police weapons involved. That was neither Mr. Yanukovic nor his Berkut [you may think what you like of police – but there were, among the dead, 14 ordinary street policemen!]

    And we know, now, of course from the testimony of Mr. Negradse that it was a troop from Lvov with their instructor, Mr. B.Ch. Bovenger from the US 101 Airborne Division, three Georgian snipers sent by Mr. Saakashvili, and the said three present day Rada members. – But we still need a good reliable witness to tell us what happened here. –

    So far, we can only detect what did NOT happen!
    (Forensics is a science- not always very nice.)

    • Joe Gilbertson

      This is the problem in a war zone. Nobody knows what really happened and they are too busy to investigate. The winner is always the first side to get picked up by the media with a plausible story, not the side that actually knows what happened.

      Can you post a source link to your narrative? We can throw it back to the experts…

  9. Ben

    That’s what the Kurd’s said.

  10. jboo7

    I am looking at the high window of the station building behind the scene – and wonder: It must be more than bullet-proof!
    There was also an impact point shown on other pictures – and that would not even fit to be from a hand-grenade.
    And it was between the wall with those windows and three cars that were burnt and blown – in the right direction: away from wall.
    Also look at the shed of corrugated iron (riggly tin) in blue by the side – NOT damaged? How that?
    And there are more points sufficient as forensic evidence which declare this “crime scene” a SCENARIO – a STAGE SET!