Trump’s Ultimatum to Cuba: Make a Deal or Face the Consequences

President Donald Trump has issued one of the most aggressive warnings Cuba has faced in decades, making it clear that the days of easy oil and money flowing to Havana are over. In a Truth Social post, Trump told Cuba to either strike a deal with the United States or suffer severe economic and energy consequences. His message was blunt and impossible to ignore. “THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA – ZERO! I strongly suggest they make a deal, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE,” Trump wrote. He added that “Cuba lived, for many years, on large amounts of OIL and MONEY from Venezuela,” a statement that highlighted how dependent the island has been on foreign support.

Trump’s warning came just days after U.S. forces captured Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, cutting off the single most important source of Cuba’s energy and financial lifeline. For years, Venezuela had acted as Cuba’s economic oxygen tank. With that now removed, Trump believes Cuba is exposed in a way it has not been in decades.

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗹𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗨𝗻𝗶𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗻𝗼𝘄 𝗵𝗼𝗹𝗱𝘀
The power behind Trump’s ultimatum comes from control over energy. Venezuela was Cuba’s largest oil supplier, sending about 26,500 to 27,000 barrels of crude and fuel per day to the island last year. That amount covered roughly half of Cuba’s total oil shortfall. According to shipping data, not a single cargo has left Venezuela for Cuba since Maduro was captured by U.S. forces.

Trump openly celebrated this shift in power. In another Truth Social post, he wrote that Cuba depended on Venezuela for oil and money for many years, but that support was now gone. He also claimed that Cuban forces who once provided security for Venezuelan leaders were wiped out in last week’s U.S. attack. “Most of those Cubans are DEAD from last week’s U.S.A. attack, and Venezuela doesn’t need protection anymore from the thugs and extortionists who held them hostage for so many years,” Trump wrote.

At the same time, Washington is redirecting Venezuela’s oil toward the United States. Reuters reported that the U.S. and Venezuela are moving forward on a $2 billion deal that could send up to 50 million barrels of Venezuelan oil to the United States, with the money held in U.S. Treasury supervised accounts. Trump has also met with major oil executives and promised to put American companies back in control of Venezuela’s massive energy sector.

𝗖𝘂𝗯𝗮’𝘀 𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝘆 𝗶𝘀 𝗮𝗹𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗱𝘆 𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗯𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗸
Cuba was already in serious trouble even before the Venezuelan oil stopped flowing. The country is facing one of the most dramatic population collapses in the world. Independent researchers estimate the population has fallen below 8 million, down from more than 11 million projected just a decade ago. That means roughly a quarter of the population has disappeared in only four years, mostly due to mass emigration and economic failure.

The Cuban government’s own statistics office admitted that the population fell to 9.75 million at the end of 2024, down 300,000 in a single year. Officials called it a “profound” demographic shift, even as they avoided labeling it a crisis.

Life on the island has become extremely hard. Cuba suffers from chronic food and fuel shortages, collapsing public services, and constant power outages. Reuters reported that most Cubans live without electricity for much of the day, and even Havana has been crippled by rolling blackouts.

Maria Elena Sabina, a 58 year old parking attendant in Havana, described daily life in blunt terms. “There’s no electricity here, no gas, not even liquefied gas. There’s nothing here,” she said. “So yes, a change is needed, a change is needed, and quickly.”

These shortages have driven a record breaking wave of people leaving the country, mostly heading for the United States. Families are being torn apart as young people see no future under the current system.

𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗧𝗿𝘂𝗺𝗽 𝘄𝗮𝗻𝘁𝘀 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝗖𝘂𝗯𝗮
While Trump has not released a detailed list of demands, his goal is clear. He wants to use energy and economic pressure to force Cuba to change course. The administration views Cuba as a long standing socialist stronghold that has survived only because of outside support, first from the Soviet Union and later from Venezuela.

Now that Venezuela is under U.S. influence, Trump believes Cuba has nowhere else to turn. His top officials have made it clear they think the cutoff of Venezuelan oil could push Cuba to the breaking point.

Trump also sees this as part of a larger plan to dominate the Western Hemisphere. Reuters reported that his push on Cuba shows how serious the administration is about bringing regional powers into line with Washington’s goals.

𝗖𝘂𝗯𝗮 𝗽𝘂𝘀𝗵𝗲𝘀 𝗯𝗮𝗰𝗸 𝗯𝘂𝘁 𝗼𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗻𝗼 𝘀𝗼𝗹𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻
Cuba’s leaders have responded with anger and defiance. President Miguel Diaz Canel rejected Trump’s threat, saying the United States had no moral authority to tell Cuba what to do. “Cuba is a free, independent, and sovereign nation. Nobody dictates what we do,” he wrote on social media. He added that Cuba does not threaten others but is ready to “defend the homeland to the last drop of blood.”

Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez also spoke out, saying Cuba had the right to import fuel from any country willing to sell it. He denied that Cuba had received any financial or material compensation for providing security services to Venezuela.

Some ordinary Cubans echoed this defiance. Produce vendor Alberto Jimenez said Trump’s threat did not scare him. “That doesn’t scare me. Not at all. The Cuban people are prepared for anything,” he said.

Still, even as leaders and loyalists talk tough, the country remains desperate for fuel. Mexico has stepped in as a small alternative supplier, but Reuters reported that the volumes are limited and nowhere near enough to replace Venezuela’s lost shipments.

𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗺𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗳𝗮𝘃𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝗧𝗿𝘂𝗺𝗽
With Venezuela no longer supplying oil and Russia tied up elsewhere, Cuba is more isolated than it has been in decades.

The CIA believes key sectors of Cuba’s economy, including agriculture and tourism, are already severely strained by blackouts and sanctions. The potential loss of Venezuelan oil could make it even harder for the government to keep the country running.

Trump is betting that this pressure will force Cuban leaders to choose between holding on to a failing socialist system or making a deal with the United States to keep the lights on. With fuel shortages, mass emigration, and a collapsing economy, he believes time is no longer on Havana’s side.