
<p>Whether President Trump can maintain his position as the likely Republican standard bearer for the 2024 presidential election is still an open question &#8212; maybe just barely open. ; So far, he has defied political gravity – but will that continue in the face of increasing legal problems?</p>



<p>If Trump were to dodge the bullet in most of his court cases, he would most certainly be the Republican nominee – and most likely win back the presidency. ; But the latter appears to be slipping away. ; The question is whether he could conceivably win the nomination with felony convictions – and other court setbacks—or even from … jail.</p>



<p>It is unlikely that voters will know the results of all the cases in time for the 2024 election. ; Any that he loses will be under appeal past November 2024. ; Seeing Trump in an orange jumpsuit in this election season is highly unlikely.</p>



<p>Based on the latest news – the guilty pleas by Sydney Powell and Kenneth Cheseboro &#8212; I think pundits on all sides would agree that Trump’s legal problems have worsened significantly. ; These guilty pleas do not come from some down-the-line political foot soldiers, but from people who had significant access to Trump and were considered key planners of the fake elector gambit.</p>



<p>I feel compelled to remind readers of my past commentary in which I said that the alternative electors’ scheme was entirely idiotic. ; If these folks went on trial for stupidity, they would be convicted for sure. ; In a sense, I suppose they are on trial for stupidity.</p>



<p>Proposing alternative electors is not illegal. ; Legislatures have the legal power to switch slates of electors if they think the original electors were not properly elected – or for any reason. ; But every state legislature that was asked refused to do so. ; Going ahead on their own – and submitting them to authorities in Washington &#8212; was the height of stupidity and arguably illegal. ; That is the argument that will be debated next March.</p>



<p>In the meantime, we have three of the 19 defendants pleading guilty to avoid jail time. ; While Cheseboro confesses to a felony, Powell got her charge dropped to a misdemeanor. ; I suspect that a lot of the hardcore anti-Trumpers will be disappointed to see Powell and Cheseboro avoid jail. ; But you cannot have everything.</p>



<p>It is probably safe to say that those entering guilty pleas based on deals with the prosecutors are officially flippers. ; There is no reason to offer such good deals to folks you indicted as serious felons without getting good evidence and testimony against someone higher up. ; In terms of Powell and Cheseboro, there is only one or two people higher up – Rudy Guiliani and Donald Trump.</p>



<p>I suspect we have not seen the end of the flippers. ; When the Fulton County Prosecutor Fani Willis indicated her intent to try all the defendants at one time, she probably understood many of the 19 – maybe even most – would not be in the courtroom in March.</p>



<p>I have long believed that Trump could lose the civil cases – the corporate fraud case and the defamation case – and survive politically. ; But much now depends on the results of the other cases. ;</p>



<p>At one time, I speculated that the case that posed the greatest threat of a conviction was the Documents Case. ; But even a conviction there might not bring Trump down. ; That case has not weakened, but the Electors Case is now posing a very serious threat to Trump.</p>



<p>Willis now has flippers – and will be avoiding a trial that would have given Trump a preview of the case. ; Special Counsel Jack Smith gets the benefits of a couple more prosecutorial witnesses in his January 6<sup>th</sup> and Documents Case investigations.</p>



<p>In view of these events, I would not be surprised if Smith files additional charges against Trump. ; Perhaps even a seditious conspiracy charge.</p>



<p>I can at least understand why so many Republican voters stick with Trump in the primaries – although I am not one of them. ; I find it increasingly difficult to see how he can win the General Election as a convicted felon on charges that relate to misdeeds he committed as President. ; However, as long as Democrats go with Biden – although I am not fully convinced, they will – I guess anything can happen.</p>



<p>If you look into the crystal ball regarding Trump’s legal prospects, you see how things can still get a lot worse for the former President – but very little opportunity to get better.</p>



<p>So, there ‘tis.</p>

Trump’s legal problems worsen … significantly
