Whether President Trump can maintain his position as the likely Republican standard bearer for the 2024 presidential election is still an open question — maybe just barely open. So far, he has defied political gravity – but will that continue in the face of increasing legal problems?
If Trump were to dodge the bullet in most of his court cases, he would most certainly be the Republican nominee – and most likely win back the presidency. But the latter appears to be slipping away. The question is whether he could conceivably win the nomination with felony convictions – and other court setbacks—or even from … jail.
It is unlikely that voters will know the results of all the cases in time for the 2024 election. Any that he loses will be under appeal past November 2024. Seeing Trump in an orange jumpsuit in this election season is highly unlikely.
Based on the latest news – the guilty pleas by Sydney Powell and Kenneth Cheseboro — I think pundits on all sides would agree that Trump’s legal problems have worsened significantly. These guilty pleas do not come from some down-the-line political foot soldiers, but from people who had significant access to Trump and were considered key planners of the fake elector gambit.
I feel compelled to remind readers of my past commentary in which I said that the alternative electors’ scheme was entirely idiotic. If these folks went on trial for stupidity, they would be convicted for sure. In a sense, I suppose they are on trial for stupidity.
Proposing alternative electors is not illegal. Legislatures have the legal power to switch slates of electors if they think the original electors were not properly elected – or for any reason. But every state legislature that was asked refused to do so. Going ahead on their own – and submitting them to authorities in Washington — was the height of stupidity and arguably illegal. That is the argument that will be debated next March.
In the meantime, we have three of the 19 defendants pleading guilty to avoid jail time. While Cheseboro confesses to a felony, Powell got her charge dropped to a misdemeanor. I suspect that a lot of the hardcore anti-Trumpers will be disappointed to see Powell and Cheseboro avoid jail. But you cannot have everything.
It is probably safe to say that those entering guilty pleas based on deals with the prosecutors are officially flippers. There is no reason to offer such good deals to folks you indicted as serious felons without getting good evidence and testimony against someone higher up. In terms of Powell and Cheseboro, there is only one or two people higher up – Rudy Guiliani and Donald Trump.
I suspect we have not seen the end of the flippers. When the Fulton County Prosecutor Fani Willis indicated her intent to try all the defendants at one time, she probably understood many of the 19 – maybe even most – would not be in the courtroom in March.
I have long believed that Trump could lose the civil cases – the corporate fraud case and the defamation case – and survive politically. But much now depends on the results of the other cases.
At one time, I speculated that the case that posed the greatest threat of a conviction was the Documents Case. But even a conviction there might not bring Trump down. That case has not weakened, but the Electors Case is now posing a very serious threat to Trump.
Willis now has flippers – and will be avoiding a trial that would have given Trump a preview of the case. Special Counsel Jack Smith gets the benefits of a couple more prosecutorial witnesses in his January 6th and Documents Case investigations.
In view of these events, I would not be surprised if Smith files additional charges against Trump. Perhaps even a seditious conspiracy charge.
I can at least understand why so many Republican voters stick with Trump in the primaries – although I am not one of them. I find it increasingly difficult to see how he can win the General Election as a convicted felon on charges that relate to misdeeds he committed as President. However, as long as Democrats go with Biden – although I am not fully convinced, they will – I guess anything can happen.
If you look into the crystal ball regarding Trump’s legal prospects, you see how things can still get a lot worse for the former President – but very little opportunity to get better.
So, there ‘tis.