
<p>In a recent speech – not the presidential campaign announcement – President Trump cited polling numbers that showed him with 71 percent support among Republican voters. ; He noted that Florida Governor Ron DeSantis had only 10 percent support to be the GOP standard bearer in 2024.</p>



<p>That was then … this is now</p>



<p>Trump was referencing a poll that was taken before DeSantis won his race for governor by more than 20 points – making him the individually biggest political winner in the 2022 midterms. ; In the latest round of polling, Trump has dropped to 61 percent as the Republican voters’ choice. ; Still a big number.</p>



<p>However, there are a lot of reasons why Trump holds that lead – and they all do not mean a victory in the summer of 2024, when Republicans meet to nominate their candidate for President of the United States.</p>



<p>A significant part of that 61 percent is picking Trump merely because he is – at this time – the biggest name in the Party. ; He is &#8212; by virtue of being the former President – the titular head of the GOP.</p>



<p>Though names of potential challengers are arising – especially DeSantis – they are not as well known nationally. ; They have not had a chance to make their sales pitch to Republican voters across the nation. ; As they do, preferences and loyalties will shift and that 61 percent lead for Trump will diminish. ; ;</p>



<p>Trump’s fortunes would then depend on exactly how much it dwindles. ; If it drops below 40 percent, Trump is in trouble. ; If it drops below 30 percent, Trump is toast as a viable candidate. ; ;</p>



<p>There is another factor, however. ; To some extent, the race would depend on how many challengers enter the race against Trump – and how equally their support is distributed.</p>



<p>That is how Trump won the nomination in 2016, when most GOP primary voters had cast their ballots for someone other than Trump. ; It was an unusual year in both the number of candidates in the race (17) and the remarkably equal distribution of support. ; Trump’s base was barely enough to win delegates in the all-important initial primaries with a narrow plurality. ; He never exceeded more than 50 percent support until the later primaries, when his nomination seemed increasingly inevitable.</p>



<p>A more ominous number for Trump is found in the Morning Consult/Poltico poll taken after the midterm election. ; It showed that only 47 percent of Republicans would support Trump if the primaries were held today – less than half. ; That number is at a time that Trump is without an established challenger … has not been subjected to an alternative campaign … and is arguably at the pinnacle of his political appeal.</p>



<p>Whatever the reality might be, there is one thing that seems clear. ; Trump is trending downward.</p>



<p>There is a LOT of time between now and Election Day 2024. ; There are innumerable events that will take place – events we cannot even rationally speculate about. ; I think it is safe to say, however, that with his tepid launch announcement and his current numbers, Trump is no position to claim to be a future frontrunner.</p>



<p>So, there tis.</p>

Trump number one and sinking
