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Trump number one and sinking

Trump number one and sinking

In a recent speech – not the presidential campaign announcement – President Trump cited polling numbers that showed him with 71 percent support among Republican voters.  He noted that Florida Governor Ron DeSantis had only 10 percent support to be the GOP standard bearer in 2024.

That was then … this is now

Trump was referencing a poll that was taken before DeSantis won his race for governor by more than 20 points – making him the individually biggest political winner in the 2022 midterms.  In the latest round of polling, Trump has dropped to 61 percent as the Republican voters’ choice.  Still a big number.

However, there are a lot of reasons why Trump holds that lead – and they all do not mean a victory in the summer of 2024, when Republicans meet to nominate their candidate for President of the United States.

A significant part of that 61 percent is picking Trump merely because he is – at this time – the biggest name in the Party.  He is — by virtue of being the former President – the titular head of the GOP.

Though names of potential challengers are arising – especially DeSantis – they are not as well known nationally.  They have not had a chance to make their sales pitch to Republican voters across the nation.  As they do, preferences and loyalties will shift and that 61 percent lead for Trump will diminish.  

Trump’s fortunes would then depend on exactly how much it dwindles.  If it drops below 40 percent, Trump is in trouble.  If it drops below 30 percent, Trump is toast as a viable candidate.  

There is another factor, however.  To some extent, the race would depend on how many challengers enter the race against Trump – and how equally their support is distributed.

That is how Trump won the nomination in 2016, when most GOP primary voters had cast their ballots for someone other than Trump.  It was an unusual year in both the number of candidates in the race (17) and the remarkably equal distribution of support.  Trump’s base was barely enough to win delegates in the all-important initial primaries with a narrow plurality.  He never exceeded more than 50 percent support until the later primaries, when his nomination seemed increasingly inevitable.

A more ominous number for Trump is found in the Morning Consult/Poltico poll taken after the midterm election.  It showed that only 47 percent of Republicans would support Trump if the primaries were held today – less than half.  That number is at a time that Trump is without an established challenger … has not been subjected to an alternative campaign … and is arguably at the pinnacle of his political appeal.

Whatever the reality might be, there is one thing that seems clear.  Trump is trending downward.

There is a LOT of time between now and Election Day 2024.  There are innumerable events that will take place – events we cannot even rationally speculate about.  I think it is safe to say, however, that with his tepid launch announcement and his current numbers, Trump is no position to claim to be a future frontrunner.

So, there tis.

About The Author

Larry Horist

So,there‘tis… The opinions, perspectives and analyses of Larry HoristLarry Horist is a businessman, conservative writer and political strategist with an extensive background in economics and public policy. Clients of his consulting firm have included such conservative icons as Steve Forbes and Milton Friedman. He has served as a consultant to the Nixon White House and travelled the country as a spokesman for President Reagan’s economic reforms. He has testified as an expert witness before numerous legislative bodies, including the U. S. Congress. Horist has lectured and taught courses at numerous colleges and universities, including Harvard, Northwestern, DePaul universities, Hope College and his alma mater, Knox College. He has been a guest on hundreds of public affairs talk shows, and hosted his own program, “Chicago In Sight,” on WIND radio. Horist was a one-time candidate for mayor of Chicago and served as Executive Director of the City Club of Chicago, where he led a successful two-year campaign to save the historic Chicago Theatre from the wrecking ball. An award-winning debater, his insightful and sometimes controversial commentaries appear frequently on the editorial pages of newspapers across the nation. He is praised by readers for his style, substance and sense of humor. According to one reader, Horist is the “new Charles Krauthammer.” He is actively semi-retired in Boca Raton, Florida where he devotes his time to writing. So, there ‘tis is Horist’s signature sign off.

25 Comments

  1. Darren

    Trump is NOT trending downward.
    That is like asking do you Steak or Steak for dinner.
    The people leaning from Trump are only doing it as a consideration to
    the same quality individual, so the assumption change might be better.

    As there is nothing wrong with DeSantis, the individuals who own and operate businesses will
    wonder if he has the financial experience of Trump and not weigh so much on political experience.
    Therefor Trump will never fall below 55%.

    Reply
  2. frank stetson

    Not quite rearview mirror though as long as folks like you have him top of mind and readily admit, if he’s the nominee, I’m all for it, although I really don’t like his personality…..

    Like I said, you should have had some balls, stood up, and impeached the guy the second time around. You would have avoided the 1/6 Trump-inspired insurrection, you would have won the 2020 election, cold-cocked us in the 2022 midterms, and more.

    Instead you have Lake who will not concede and Walker to hang your hats on; the other Trumplicants were total losers. Only DeSantis eschewing Trump, favoring Trumpism with a good PR publicity fare, rose above your Trumplicants with over-the-top bat-shit crazy Trumpism. Only Pritzker’s stupid financing of Trumpism was dumber.

    Good job, forget the rearview, you got him on your dashboard one more time!!!! Be sure to donate, he needs cash. He’s rich, takes no salary, and funds his own campaigns. NOT. Let’s relive the lies, relitigate the decided, make The Big Lie so.

    More Republicans have stood up and said NO. Larry continues to just sit down. Trump has not crossed that line yet for Larry. Even today. Even when down in the polls, shunned by the media (even FOX), and outshined by DeSantimonious, Larry can’t step up to the “NO TRUMP” bandwagon. Sometimes personality, values, integrity is MORE IMPORTANT than personal gain, getting what you want at the cost of those concepts. Part of me wants to see Hillary come back, put Liz on for VP, and let the cannons roar. Not really, but we all know what’s going to happen here. Baring a Trump miracle, he will continue to fleece the sheep, shorn of their hard earned money, fight his legal woes, and duck out for a revenge-rally tour after yelling he gets more viewers than FOX. So does a car wreck.

    At least if this guy is in the rearview, quit advertising for him. Is that really a bridge too far given it’s your statement?

    Reply
    • larry Horist

      Frank Stetson … I understand you obsession with me … but I would appreciate if you would not talk in the third person and claim what I think and believe. If you cannot give up your imaginary playmate, would you kindly remove my name from him. Maybe it would be more appropriate if you called him Franky II.

      Reply
      • frank stetson

        Funny, you have your panties all knotted over the third person as you tell me that I am obsessed with you. Maybe if you discussed issues instead of personalities, you would make more sense. Because I don’t have a clue what your problem is. But I am glad you think if I am saying what I think you think that you want to be called Franky II; that’s somewhat flattering.

        But rather than telling us your personal problems, maybe just try coming out and saying what really bothers you and what you think I have wrong about your posts. Or continue to speak in generalities about your perceived issues as to my supposed obsession with you.

        Confusion will be your epitaph.

        Reply
        • larry Horist

          Frank Stetson … You seem to be becoming more obsessive and your responses increasingly unhinged and irrational. You use every point to create ad hominin attacks on me via you mentally created proxy of me. I am more than will to have intelligent and civil dialogue with other responders. You should think about that. But … I think I should not be engaging with you since it only seems to exacerbate your problem … your pathetic obsession.

          Reply
          • frank stetson

            I realize that you are overly defensive given the multiple times I have trashed your arguments and your defensive backup mode is to get personal, blame the other guy of being personal as if your skin is thinner than Trumps. You act like I’m the only one, but you do it often, same mo, same banter.

            I suggest you stay on point and quit engaging in the personality stuff like calling me an obsessive, unhinged, irrational, attacking, pathetic, person who has imaginary friends…. and that’s just a couple of your recent posts.

            The question was: “At least if this guy is in the rearview, quit advertising for him. Is that really a bridge too far given it’s your statement?” I guess we will know based on the interval until your next Trump headline that in your rearview window :>)

    • Tom

      Frank and Larry, I agree with both of you on Trump. I do think his star is about to go into supernova and implode and die. Frank you mentioned Hillary (and I realize it was a bit of sarcastic humor on your part) but there is a reality you did not capitalize on. The reality is that when Trump was popular, he did not win the popular vote in 2016. So now that his popularity is fading some, (I believe Larry to be correct) I do not think Trump can win the popular vote or the Electoral College. BUT!!! (And I am warning Dems with this big but) If Dems do not run a better candidate than what is in the WH now, Trump may do better but will most likely still not win. And in a way, Trump not winning may be all that the GOP can do to break out of Trumpism prison. Here is the warning from Independents: If the Dems run Biden again, and it is a Biden facing Trump choice, many Independents will cast their votes to promote gridlock, or, they simply won’t vote (which I hope does not happen). Trump has lost many independents, and right now Biden is losing them as well by pandering to the left. Now, there is also a larger issue which Independents loath: Constant talk by the GOP that now that they have the Legislature majority, they intend on launching multiple investigations and impeachments. I read three articles today involving GOP, and all McCarthy could talk about across several interviews was multiple investigations. Not a single word on how the GOP will improve the country or get us out of the Trump/Biden mess we are currently in. Not a single word on platform. Not a single word on what the GOP thinks it can accomplish working with the Dems. This is a huge turn-off to Independents/Unaffiliated voters. Equally as loathsome is Biden’s victory lap speeches and saying he is not going to change a thing – then he turns around and says he will work with GOP! On what?!!! He already said he is not going to change a thing which only means to us that Biden has little plan on working with the GOP unless the GOP goes his way! It seems to be shaping up to the next two years being full of GOP investigations, and bad Dem left wing policy that they know the GOP will not approve – but that is Dem design so that they can position the GOP as “obstructionists” in the 2024 electoral season! An example of this has already surfaced with Shumer stating that all illegals should be given amnesty, which is pure lunacy! Had Shumer stated that he will work with the GOP on the Dreamers Act and resolving the chain immigration issues that concern the GOP, I would have been happy! But no, blanket amnesty is the approach and Dems already know GOP will not budge on it, hence its all for show and positioning for 2024, and, we Independents are not stupid, we know Dems have an all out effort to build their electorate in Red States with illegals and using the immigration system as a means of thwarting democracy and the will of its native born citizens – which is now being labeled “replacement”. So yes, democracy is at stake, but we view it more at stake with Biden and Shumer than with Trump. So do not be too quick to count Trump out because the Dems are doing exactly what caused Trump’s rise in 2016 – but they do not see it any better than Trump sees his own arrogance.

      Reply
    • Larry kuhn

      Hillary and Liz? You really are a stupid bastard. We need Trump more than ever

      Reply
      • Frank stetson

        Nope, I is smart. Mom has me tested. And I have a mom n dad, not a bastard.

        You on the other hand are one brick shy of a wall, not the sharpest spade in the woodshed, one oar out of the water, one card short of a full house sort of guy.

        Learn to read. Hint: use dictionary, look up sarcasm. Think about it.

        I have to spell it out any more on for youse and I will need to use a crayon.

        Reply
    • Ac

      Larry, am one of a growing majority called Independent voting Americans. I am not not adverse to voting Republican or Democratic. But, Trump’s presence on the political landscape has been antithetical to every bone of my philosophy. Needless to say, he has left his destructive mark on US politics and life.
      So, if what you think on Trump’s lessening presence actually happens, I heartily encourage that notion.
      Still, I am among the majority and growing independent voting block in America. Considering results in 2020 from the election. If th Democratic viewpoint is thrown to the curb so are over half the voters in this country.
      I agree, many votes were cast against Trump , not so much for Biden. Point, being, defining all things of Democratic origin s inherently destructive in total strikes the core in big truly democratic.
      lol on conservatism is unworkable in the greater picture and most people’s reality. It, conservative Republican philosophy needs balance provided by other more wholistic approaches. There are diverse questions n government for which conservative points of view have no adequate answers. It doesn’t start. While, those you so vehemently oppose have provided answers, do look at individual s at the granular level, and are doing something.

      Reply
  3. the old Marine

    I am going to wait and see who throws their hat in the ring and them make my own mind to who I think is the best person. I will decide and need no help from anyone else. I am sure there will be a list of want to be.

    Reply
    • larry Horist

      Darren …. Trump never hit more than 50 percent in any poll. and even the most recent has him at 47 percent among Republican voters.

      Reply
    • larry Horist

      the old Marine …. you are like most voters. You cannot judge Trump until you see the opposition — and what else develops in between. Based on past performance, I do not think Trump can win back the White House. Have to wait and see.

      Reply
  4. Ac

    Larry,
    You wrote that Trump would not receive your support vote if he stood in the Republican Primary Election in 2024. However, if by some weird circumstance he wins nomination so he is on the Presidential ballot in 2024. Wouldn’t you vote for him, because it’s the Republican ticket?
    Realizing much water had yet to pass over the
    dam. Stranger tings have happen on the right. Like Trump’s nomination the first time,

    Reply
    • larry Horist

      Ac … No. I would not be voting FOR Trump — if he is the nominee — I would be voting against Democrat policies that I consider a greater threat to the nation. The Democratic Party is committed to an ever more powerful central government ruled over by a corps of one-party elitists.

      Reply
  5. EMMA

    LET US NOT FORGET FOR ONE MINUTE HOW MUCH TRUMP DID FOR OUR COUNTRY AND OUR MILITARY. ALL IS GONE TO S**T BECAUSE OF BIDEN. WHO OUT OF SPITE FOR TRUMP, AND HATE FOR AMERICA RUINED EVERYTHING THAT PRESIDENT TRUMP PUT IN TO PLACE.
    WE ALL WILL VOTE TRUMP, THERE IS NO BETTER OR MORE DECENT GUY THEN TRUMP.NO MATTER WHAT ALL THESE NAY SAYERS SAY.
    WHERE ARE THE REAL AMERICAN MEN?? IT IS SHAMEFUL HOW WOKE THEY ARE THESE DAYS.

    Reply
    • Sandra Hare

      Boy do I agree with you. Trump had us on the right tract and we were doing well!! But somehow Biden got in there and like a stupid fool immediately started undoing all the things Trump did, and now we are left with this mess we’re in. Being a nurs, I knew right away he had dementia!! Where were all the other intelligent people when he was Elected???

      Reply
      • Rick

        The NWO/WEF installed Biden when they overthrew our country at the last presidential (fake) election. They wanted an old man that looked and acted senile so that they could destroy our country from behind the curtain and most people would think that all of the bad things happening to our beloved USA was only because we have a senile old man at the helm. I loved Trump, but lost my respect for him because he keeps pushing the poison shots even though he has to know that they are harming so many people, which makes me wonder who is pulling his strings. And, unless you are a dyed in the wool demonocrat you know that the midterm elections were falsified in some states too. Demonocrats will do anything to get and keep power to rule over people. They have sold us out to the NWO/WEF. According to them, you will own nothing and eat bugs by 2030. To put that into perspective, that is only 8 years from now. I don’t think Biden is really as insane as he looks and acts. He is an actor.

        Reply
        • frank stetson

          oh my, the nwo, and even 2022 voter fraud.

          what gets me is how the right is so afraid of the left doing these things but are too stupid to stop them and too powerless to combat them, match them, or even prove these allegations.

          Reply
          • Rick

            Funny isn’t it frank, how your guy Biden could not get more than twenty people to show up at his rally’s to sit inside their silly covid circles, and those twenty were most likely Biden’s campaign staff. Are you saying frank, that you do not believe the NWO and WEF are well on the way to taking over the USA along with all of the other countries with one world government?

          • frank stetson

            I am not sure there IS an nwo, and, most certainly, the dems selling out to the wef —- well, it’s been over five decades and you can’t prove shit. And exactly how could the wef be one world government? It’s thousands of members, hundreds of countries —– who’s on first to control the world?

            what’s funnier is your guy getting beat by that. and then again in 2022 mid terms. Just Walker to go.

      • Bibfy

        Trump is a whore who sold America like he sold Atlantic City defrauding all like he defraudedTrump University students. Borrowed the country into massive debt while he lined the pockets of his conservative constituents with his tax cuts and stimulus and left that huge bag full of debt to Biden and the liberals.

        Reply
  6. Bibfy

    Thank you comrade or in your language:

    THANKYOUCOMRADE!!!

    Reply
  7. Steve

    Only job TRump is fit for is shoveling shit since been doing it since he was a kid

    Reply
    • Harold blankenship

      What’s wrong Steve? Not enough left for you to eat? You moron.

      Reply

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