Trump Declares ‘Liberation Day’ and Launches Bold Tariff Strategy to Reclaim America’s Economic Power
On April 2, 2025, President Donald Trump stood in the White House Rose Garden and declared the beginning of what he called “Liberation Day.” His announcement marked a historic turning point in U.S. trade policy. The president revealed a plan to impose a 10 percent tariff on all imports into the United States and additional tariffs as high as 54 percent on nations that have long benefited from what Trump described as unfair trade practices.
Trump stated, “For decades, our country has been looted, pillaged, raped, and plundered by nations near and far, both friend and foe alike.” He described the new tariffs as a “declaration of economic independence” and said April 2 would go down in history as the day “America’s destiny was reclaimed.” Trump’s vision is to use these tariffs to pressure other countries into treating American goods fairly, restore U.S. manufacturing, and reverse decades of trade imbalances.
A Bold Trade Shift: 10 Percent Across the Board, More for Offenders
At the heart of Trump’s strategy is a 10 percent universal tariff that will be applied to all imported goods starting April 5. But this is only the beginning. On April 9, steeper penalties will take effect against nations Trump has labeled as trade abusers.
Among the worst offenders, China tops the list. Its goods will face an additional 34 percent tariff on top of a 20 percent levy already in place, bringing the total to 54 percent. Vietnam will be hit with a 46 percent tariff, Japan with 24 percent, and the European Union with 20 percent. Even U.S. allies such as Israel will be subject to a 17 percent tariff, despite their recent move to eliminate duties on American products.
Trump explained the logic behind these actions in plain terms. “Reciprocal. That means they do it to us, and we do it to them. Very simple. Can’t get any simpler than that.”
The president’s team is using authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, a 1977 law that allows the executive branch to restrict trade in response to threats to national or economic security. Trump previously invoked this law to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China in response to illegal immigration and drug trafficking.
Targeting a Rigged Global System
Trump and his advisors argue that American trade policy has been one-sided for decades. According to White House officials, the U.S. maintains an average tariff rate of just 2 percent, while its trading partners frequently apply higher duties and impose other restrictions that block U.S. exports. In 2024, the U.S. recorded a staggering $1.2 trillion trade deficit in goods.
Officials explained that while high tariffs are a problem, the real threat comes from non-tariff barriers. These are hidden tools other countries use to restrict imports, including licensing delays, import quotas, product bans, and domestic favoritism.
A senior administration official said, “The problem with Vietnam is not their tariffs. The problem is everything else they do, including setting up shop for Communist China to send us things.” The official pointed out that China often circumvents existing tariffs by routing goods through countries like Cambodia, Indonesia, and Thailand.
Other examples cited by the administration include Australia’s ongoing ban on U.S. beef, Brazil’s licensing requirements for American agricultural goods, and Mexico’s restrictions on the volume of U.S. farm products entering the country. Israel, despite lifting its tariffs on American goods, was also accused of intellectual property theft in the pharmaceutical sector.
“These actions have undermined our national and economic security,” one White House official said. “Our farmers can have the fair treatment they deserve in other countries.”
A Shake-Up That Rattled Wall Street
While Trump insisted the plan would revive the economy and restore American strength, Wall Street reacted with shock. After the announcement, the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped by 500 points, or 2.5 percent. The S&P 500 fell nearly 90 points, or 1.5 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 200 points. Treasury yields were mixed and the U.S. dollar index fell by 0.25 percent.
On the following day, the selloff deepened. The S&P 500 tumbled more than 4 percent, echoing declines in Europe and Asia. Japan’s markets fell by over 3 percent, while the Stoxx Europe 600 was down more than 2 percent. Oil prices also fell by 3 percent.
Economists and traders were not just surprised by the size of the tariffs but by the lack of clarity on how long they would last or whether exemptions might be offered. “Now we wait for clarity and hope we can get some on the tariff front,” said Jay Woods, chief global strategist at Freedom Capital Markets. “The lack of certainty and the shroud of secrecy have been driving the market insane.”
Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, called it a “worst-case scenario.” She warned that the tariffs could raise prices and potentially tip the U.S. into recession. Others, like GlobalData’s Steven Blitz, said the move was a massive tax increase that would likely be passed on to consumers. “You don’t grow an economy with higher taxes,” Blitz said.
Still, Trump and his officials dismissed concerns. “I don’t see [a recession] at all,” Trump said during a recent White House event. “I think this country is going to boom. I think we’re going to have the greatest markets we’ve ever had.”
Trump Refuses to Surrender America’s Economic Future
Trump has made it clear that this tariff plan is about more than economics. It is about national strength. “In many cases, the friend is worse than the foe in terms of trade,” he said. To Trump, previous administrations surrendered the country’s manufacturing base to globalization, prioritizing cheap imports over American jobs. His goal is to reverse that.
“If you want your tariff rate to be zero, then you build your product right here in America,” Trump said. “Jobs and factories will come roaring back into our country, and you see it happening already.”
His supporters argue that these tariffs will encourage companies to bring their operations back home. Already, firms such as Siemens, Apple, Johnson & Johnson, Hyundai, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company have announced new investments in the United States. TSMC alone plans to invest at least $100 billion in chip plants in Arizona.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said these tariffs are designed to level the playing field. “Foreign goods may get a little more expensive,” he said, “but American goods are going to get cheaper, and you’re going to be helping Americans by buying American.”
Reactions Around the World: Frustration, Warnings, and Negotiations
Global leaders have responded with a mix of outrage and caution. Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, said the tariffs were a “major blow to the world economy” and promised that the EU would take united countermeasures. French President Emmanuel Macron urged European companies to pause U.S. investments until there was more clarity.
China’s foreign ministry condemned the tariffs, calling them “self-defeating bullying.” Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba called the move “extremely regrettable” but stopped short of threatening retaliation, stating that Japan would try to show the U.S. how it was helping American industry. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said Trump was “acting on his mandate” and that trade talks would continue.
Some countries are choosing cooperation instead of conflict. India offered to slash tariffs on half of U.S. imports. Vietnam lowered duties on a range of American products. Israel removed all remaining tariffs on U.S. goods.
Still, Trump made it clear that no nation is completely exempt. “I may give a lot of countries breaks,” he said. “In other words, they’ve charged us so much that I’m embarrassed to charge them what they’ve charged.”
Treasury Secretary Urges Nations Not to Retaliate
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged foreign governments to stay calm and avoid escalation. “My advice to every country right now is do not retaliate,” he said on Fox News. “Sit back, take it in, let’s see how it goes. Because if you retaliate, there will be escalation. If you don’t retaliate, this is the high-water mark.”
Bessent also warned that prior economic conditions were leading toward a financial crisis and said Trump’s policies were intended to correct that course. “We’re setting the stage for long-term economic growth,” he explained. “We were on our way to a financial crisis, and we are putting ourselves back onto a sound trajectory.”
Democrats Divided on the Tariffs
While most Democrats condemned the announcement, a few voiced support. Rep. Jared Golden of Maine said, “I’m pleased the president is building his tariff agenda on the foundation of a universal 10 percent tariff like the one I proposed.” He called the plan a “good start to erasing our unsustainable trade deficits” and said it should be paired with pro-worker policies that prioritize unions and American manufacturing.
Others were sharply critical. Rep. Gregory Meeks promised to introduce a resolution to end the national emergency declaration that justified the tariffs. “It’s time they show whether they support the economic pain Trump is inflicting on their constituents,” Meeks said.
A Turning Point in the Global Economy
Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs are more than just a tax on imports. They are a direct challenge to the global economic system that the United States helped build after World War II. Trump believes that system has been used against America for too long, and now he is tearing it down to build something new.
The outcome of this strategy remains uncertain. It could bring new factories and jobs back to the United States. It could also bring higher prices and global retaliation. But one thing is clear: Trump is no longer asking for fairness. He is demanding it.
Very soon the hotels in Washington will be filled with people from other countries coming to negotiate. And Frank Dunger will talk it down.
Trump said tariffs will not raise prices and Seth believed.
Trump said he would bring prices down on day one and Seth believed.
Trump said he started no wars and then he started his trade war and Seth feels victory. He still believes.
Russia has no new tariffs; Seth believes.
Lucky for Seth, he is not affected by the Stock market crash. He is a believer but the stock market does not.
The stock market sees a world that is at war with American products; maybe their boycotting us will lower prices.
The automakers believe, they already are laying off and closing factories that uaed to make things in America.
March layoffs biggest since the pandemic and Seth likes it. He believes.
He believes they will come to DC to bend the knee; won’t be staying at Trump hotel. Seth believed that was great too.
Buckle up buttercup.
Frank, I know you don’t understand economics very well, but the people you are fans of made the worst deals in history and we are at an extreme disadvantage. Trump is straightening that out. And when he is done, you will find that prices will go down, factories will appear in the America, and other countries will stop depending on us to subsidize them. And then you will realize that we are the closest ever to a free trade world, a world with tariffs lower than ever in history.
Joe, you just accurately recited Trump talking points. The problem is that almost all economists do not agree with Trump nor you for many reasons! Reasons like how long it takes to build a factory versus alternative ways of dealing with Tariffs that do not require movement. Prices will come down quicker when (like in Canada) they are simply going to boycott American products which will lead to excess products on our shelves before the mass layoff occur. Investment will dramatically decrease which will stifle innovation as well as lose markets. Agriculture will lose markets as their grain and perishables rot in storage. Trump’s thinking is based on a fifty year old model that is stuck in his head, and will not work in a global economy. Congrats Joe, you and all of the other MAGA idiots just isolated us. Frank is correct, buckle up buttercup!
Joe, exactly what don’t I understand about economics? I don’t remember you correcting me in the past and certainly not here with your unfounded hopes and dreams for a man with economic delusions of grandeur.
I don’t have a degree, am just beyond basic, but rarely wrong on it. So either point it out or stfu.
Ps: Trump 1.0 said that too and he screwed the pooch on that one too.
What is true right now is we had a pretty good economy and President Grump put us in the shitter.
Ok jobs report but inflation up, unemployment up, dollar down, deficit up and gdp growth will be going south. Soon he will be one quarter away from a technical recession, but you will be whimpering well before that. Remember, I mostly exited equities entering fixed assets so I may be making less, but I am still making my salary without working. So. bite me re my economics where-with-all.
Trump was not content wth his last beating of Hoover’s lowest gdp growth record, now he’s trying to top his depression record Using a similar failed strategy. Soon, Larry will opine how democrats caused the depression.
He told you prices would not go up if you elected him. They are.
He told you bringing factories back to America. He told that lie last time.
He told you that gdp growth will be like never seen before. May get that right but in the wrong direction.
He is single handily raising unemployment, stifling hiring and investment, and soon boycotting American goods will be global. There is no meritocracy in the Trump administration.
Don’t get me wrong; I am all for cutting costs, even draconian cuts. But this is stupid, proven unsuccessful, and just in Trump’s dna since the 70’s.
There’s even a good chance for global recession as all spending dries up simply because he’s fucking around.
And you won’t see a turnaround in Trump’s time if he does not change course soon. I expect if failure continues, it will be wild.
Joe, I guess he’s an expert at economics, thinks tariffs will bring factories back to America. Ha ha ha ha. Unless we magically lower our labor rates, ain’t economically happening, i.e. anything Trump is doing is artificial to that cause as in forced-via-policy. Joe, factories left America because it can be made cheaper outside of America due to our labor costs. That’s the fucking-a economic truth. You can most assuredly blame labor rates, but do you plan to lower ours; because nothing in Trump policy is raising foreign labor rates, and why would we? How, economically, do tariffs change that? You might claim regulations and some estimate 3-10% with the poor getting hit by a higher percentage. But tariffs will not change much in terms of product regulation, economically speaking. As Trump forces Americans to pay more for goods because of tariffs, do you think we will become used to it and therefore willing to pay more for more expensive American-made goods? In what economic universe can that ever be true? And how long will that take?
What worst deals in history are you talking about? And who you be calling the ones I am fans of? Because Trump 1.0 “fixed” NAFTA and then tariffed Mexico and Canada because he’s an economics wiz like Joe. He claimed that would reduce prices. It did not. Trump 2.0 reversed his policy on Canada and Mexico because it made great TV. Burn Joe once, shame on you, burn Joe twice, and if it’s Trump, he bends over and says: please slur, can I have some more?”
How long do we wait for him to be done and prices come down? Because right now, they seem to be going up from already inflationary levels. How long to factories come back, because right now they are closing down.
Which countries and how are we subsidizing them, please clarify? These tariffs were calculated based on some whacko formula factoring trade deficits based on a strategy of a liar and a cad. As I noted elsewhere, Trump pays $6M for the El Salvadorian gulag creating a trade imbalance. He placed ZERO tariffs on El Salvador. He also placed ZERO tariffs on Russia. So, it’s a whacko formula aimed at countries where we buy more from than they buy from us to somehow force them to buy more American or build their factories in America, many of which now make American products. So, Trump policy is raise prices to force factories to be built here for higher costs and therefore, prices. Smart economics Joe? Where’s the math? Since you are an economics maven, might you conclude that IF that happens, Americans still pay more? Joe, economically speaking, what policy gets us lower fucking prices? Tariffs are not lower prices. American factories are not lower prices? WTF are you even trying to do, economically speaking?
As a manufacturer, the only way I could have brought my factory back given these tariffs is to automate the living fuck out of it and get rid of the labor. Having already done that, it would be tough. So, if I did, you have your factory, but not many jobs. Or, more likely, there are 90 countries Trump tariffed. That leaves over 100 non-tariffed countries, one of which, is where I would put my factory. Maybe Russia or North Korea. Russia would be great, lower labor, and a favored nation now. In the 90’s, I helped wage a large anti-dumping case. We won because tie goes the runner, it was close. The next day, literally, new factories opened outside of the offending countries. We made our point, but it was a hallow victory. And this was higher-tech stuff, but took a few months to open the factory. Not hard for the Japanese, South Koreans, and Taiwanese in those days, probably not hard today.
Water flows to the lowest level, as does manufacturing, based on labor. The US economy should move forward, not backwards. Trump is ass-backwards and demented. Most economists think he is bat-shit crazy on this one as Joe sees economics genius. I’ll vote with the experts.
“And then you will realize that we are the closest ever to a free trade world, a world with tariffs lower than ever in history.” Not bloody likely. You act as if these tariffs are reciprocal. That’s lipstick on a pig. They are not even close to being reciprocal. Any economist will tell you that. Any economist will tell you Trump’s tariff formulas are poppycock apples n oranges math. FYI: oh econ major, it’s impossible to have the lowest tariffs in history unless you go negative, because many times in the world’s history, there have been no tariffs. So that, would be historic. And truly a subsidy.
IMO, Trump is hoping that other countries will bend the knee, say they will buy more from us, reduce any tariffs, and maybe pop a factory over here. Trump will claim victory, make some great TV. He can’t really count success for months, if not a year, from agreement, and as we have seen in Trump 1.0, the factory will never materialize. Trump will never look back to gauge his success, he made his great TV, and will be on to the next crisis. Trump will claim “mission accomplished” and move on to the next really good TV and the only thing you will see is continued higher prices. If you have any money to spend at all.
The risk is how deep the recession is. Oh yeah, we are in recession IMO. May not be a technical one until after 2Q25, but IMO we are there. Our wallets are tighter than your sphincter 24 hours after a double-dose of Milk of Magnesia. Remember, my terrible econ sense claims the simplest definition of recession is too little money. There is already too little money to invest in the stock market. We will soon see spending dry up after a short flurry of people trying to beat the tariff increases. Who amongst your readers is not holding cash now and avoiding big expenditures? Who amongst us just put big expenditures on hold? Soon, as tariffs hit, we will look to lower cost alternative products leaving higher end alternatives to lay off people. We had a good jobs report, but unemployment was up and the Federal force reductions have not hit and other companies, like the auto market, have already announced factory closings and layoffs.
Recession is also a state of mind as people hold cash to buffer the pending crisis. Trump knows not what risks he faces as foreign investors shun us but, worse yet, foreign countries could pull their investments in America which float our loan, our debt. Foreign investors hold about 25% of US debt which is enough to crash us. We might even lose our standing as being the best country to invest in for these nations.
Stability is crucial to a strong economy, Trump’s actions cause massive instability in a system neither you, I, or any expert can predict 100% the outcome. There are so many moving parts and levers that my favorite saying is: wherever you are in the economy, you have never been there before. The fact that the math is crazy, the concept Hooverian, and it’s genesis a complete lie, certainly does not portend a guaranteed success. I can claim this is just like Hoover on the eve of the Great Depression, but at best I can claim it’s directionally the same. No one really knows. But we are about to learn.
As the market crashes, Trump took the weekend to mingle with the Saudi’s over golf. How’s your 401K? I pulled mine and have been investing outside the 401k limitations. Going on vacation this year? Because so far you have paid $24M for Trump to golf and he’s only two months in. Have we heard this story before? Was there a fire and some violin? Next, the genesis of Trump’s tariffs. It’s a story that’s straight out of a movie you would say: no way in real life.
So you really really don’t know anything about economics. And you don’t know negotiations and you don’t know even recent history and you don’t know the nature of personal connections in doing business. I guess the only thing you can do is apologize later in the year when everything turns out well.
Got proof Joe. Because your opinions of me seem unfounded and full of bullshit.
I was a in Senior Product Manager for a major telcom, fortune 100. A few levels above Tom who may have even met me, or seen me, you never know. My portfolio at one time was well over $100M. I owned the P&L. I created so many OEM deals, partnerships, etc. I can’t remember. I am pretty sure I understand the nature of business in a manner you can only imagine, based on your ignorant comments.
Before that I consulted with almost every telecom manager in the world on new product introductions and competitive offers. As such, I held competitive conferences where you could find many of the world’s telecom leaders. Published often and thank God I had editors.
Later I travelled the world spreading the gospel of IPTelehony oft requested at major tradeshows and technical conferences, even though I have no technical background, just kinda picked it up working with all those engineers in all those companies.
I introduced more products than Carter has pills, and my forte was new and troubled projects. I, through my team, introduced a world-class low-cost voice mail in a company known for high cost. Great story how I architected that team. One of my smallest products, for small businesses like yours, also one of the ones I take most pride in given we were so far out of the box, twas crazy.
Like I said, I may be light in the economics, good on the basics, get lost in the advanced modeling But there is very little doubt on my acumen in business, doing deals, and working with others.
So say something that makes sense. Say something where you can actually prove your weird opinions or actually prove something I said it wrong…..
Next time you throw mud, try to back it up with something of substance.
FYI: if you look at other posts, one place I see this going is a head-fake to take massive income tax cuts and maybe even shift to flat tax, consumption tax, or a bit of both. He will trade the tariff revenues, which he claims will be $1T against income tax revenues, just over $2T. So he can reduce taxes by 50%, keep the tariffs, and it’s a wash to the US General Fund where all taxes and tariffs go. Might be easy to migrate to a flat tax that’s 50% of income tax via that smoke and mirrors.
Doubtful, but mathematically it works, and in terms of accounting (which I am sure you are an expert in), it already works as it’s all the General Fund.
Could he be this smart? We will see.
As to the rest —- I say a pretty good chance they will come, bend a knew, promise to buy more American, announce factories, and Trump will say mission accomplished. And after that great TV, we will never know if they buy American for at least a year, six months maybe for a peak. And for factories, based on Trump 1.0; we may never see them. Such is Trump. Just guessing on this one, but again, the math and accounting already work.
Joe, I realize that none of you folks that write for the windbag post are students of history, but tariffs have never worked in the past. But let’s just ignore that for now, and think about what can possibly happen with these tariff’s that the idiot in chief has imposed (tariffs that are not based on what other countries charge us, but rather than trade imbalance on goods between individual countries-neglecting services, where we typically run a surplus). First, some countries will try to negotiate with Trump to get the tariff’s lowered, this would be the best outcome for the American people, though the folks in his administration tell us that the ‘tariffs are non-negotiable’. I think many countries will not choose this option in that trump is notoriously fickle-he doesn’t believe that an agreement is forever, possibly only for one day. You just need to look at the agreements he pulled out of in his first term. Oh, but you say those were agreements someone else made-then how about the Canada/Mexico Free Trade agreement that replaced NAFTA-an agreement he heralded in trump one, now is in the dustpan with his illegal tariffs. No, he is not to be trusted on anything. So, instead of negotiating, countries raise their tariffs, Americans suffer, but then companies decided to bring their factories back to the US. Now, for the most part these companies did not move their factories overseas just because, they did it because labor was cheaper. So, when they bring their factories back they have two options. 1) pay the workers at their US factories the same as they paid overseas (probably won’t get many takers for those jobs) or 2) raise the pay for these workers at their new factories to be commensurate with US pay (which will entice the workers, but what will it do to the price of goods-sounds pretty inflationary to me). Feel free to argue with any of these points, but I doubt that you will, as they are all based on logic, which is in short supply in the conservative mindset. So yes, April 2 should be remembered as ‘Liberation Day’, I know it liberated a whole bunch of money from my bank account anyway….
People should not be looking at the Tariffs at face value. This is another play in the Art of the Deal!
This extreme play is what a person does to bring others to the negotiation table.
At worst, this equal’s the balance of trade!
For years we were the ones helping out other countries at our expense.
The Political wheel in past received nothing but kickbacks.
One only has to look back as far as the Biden’s.
I am sure the money that found its way to to other country’s in the form of out taxes were kicked back to
those making policy here on BOTH SIDES!
This political corruption here is why Socialism will NEVER BE FARE or WORK!
The greed in this country will kill everything.
The stock market is reacting as it should.
This market has been propped up artificially for years by those in power to say look how good things are.
As the big money shorts things to prove a point to Trump, they can expand its growth just as easy.
The smart money will let their point be proven, then purchase the hell out of it.
This market on its own had no ability to ever be over 30K when looking at where we stand in the world
compared to other country’s markets?
China as assumed to be out biggest threat, has been building militarily more of EVERYTHING from
out Tax Dollars, and the Democrat’s in power worry about Tariffs?
How can this country grow if the Market stays at 45K, what, rise to 60K?
Bad weather always creates and clears its own debris!
Good luck Darren.
Doubtful though.
Where did Trump’s tariff plan, if you can call it that, come from?
Trump has talked tariffs well before politics but most were not certain he could spell the word; he was a clown, and so no one gave it a moment. The rest of this story must not be true, but I think it is……. Talk about a truth that is stranger than fiction.
Trump 1.0 asks Kushner to find him a trade expert to lead the National Trade Council and be his advisor. He told Kusher the kinds of things that gave him a woody. Kusher went to Amazon and looked at book titles. He passed on Horist, but Navarro wrote a book that caught his fancy: “Death by China: Confronting the Dragon – A Global Call to Action.” Not sure he read it, but he liked it.
In the book Navarro is coached by Ron Varo, a genius economist from Harvard with some defining feelings for tariffs adding support to Navarro’s theories. Varo is described as a gulf war reservist who, like Mr. Navarro, had studied economics at Harvard, working on a doctorate. Ron Vara is an anagram of Navarro and it’s all a lie. Trump understands lies, he believes in lies. He created John Barron as his spokesman at one time. Yes sir, buddy, that’s where the idea came from: Peter Navarro supported by an expert he made up. The entire Trump tariff “plan” started with one man, Peter Navarro, a life-time teacher, not a businessman, not a politician, but an egg-head. It’s then twisted through another one man show, Trump, to it’s conclusion. Two men, one fringe idea, to rule the world. And change the world, not necessarily for the better. What’s in your wallet. It’s the economy, stupid.
Navarro is a Harvard economics PhD who is professor emeritus at UC in Irvine in what folks here consider the whacko state of California. Considered a fringe economist by most experts and economists he makes his bones by having a hard-on for trade, China, and basically anything called partnering outside the US. He’s been pitching his story for decades, teaching at UC for decades, but no one has listened until Trump. Hey, it’s California, Jake. He definitely has the educational creds and economics creds even if fringe in his economic beliefs. He has taught at California colleges forever; they didn’t fire him for his ideas. Was a Democrat, like Trump, until 1989. He supported Hillary and Obama and called himself a Reagan Democrat. Yupper buddy, your grand plan was invented by an ex-Democrat who called himself a Reagan Democrat. His contempt of Congress charge is over withholding evidence claiming executive privilege, a misdemeanor.
As Trump lays in the tariffs making America and the world close its collective wallets, companies laying people off, foreign countries putting REAL reciprocal tariffs in, and global production stutters, remember, it’s based on a theory from a man convicted on contempt to Congress supported by a fake, imaginary expert.
The 1q25 gdp is issued 4/30, but the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.8 percent on 4/3, up from -3.7 percent on April 1. Most other models show 2-3% GDP, not negative which seems appropriate. For a technical recession, two negative GDP quarters are the benchmark. But like I said, when you hit the technical benchmark, you have been in it for six months, you know. April 30th, we will get our first glimpse.
Meanwhile, as Trump throws more logs on the tariff fire, we watch the stock market burn, as he took off early before end of week to go golfing for the weekend with the Saudis. WE have spent $24M already this term to have him golf. Yes, while the stock market burned, Trump went golfing. No wonder Trump fired the NSA head and a bunch of others after Laura Loomer met with him. Twas in the same room Clinton used to meet with….. you be the judge, but there seems to be a bit of a demented party going on….
Joe, I am not an economics wiz, just a few courses. My father got his masters at the Chicago school so I do understand the basics as taught to me, from him. But I do know finance and business and this is neither. It’s bad business and there’s no finance here, just swinging for the fences and hoping for a favorable wind. He does not seem to have a plan or even a consistent goal. Is it drugs from Mexico and Canada, factories, trade imbalance, or punitive tariffs to those who tariff us? You know about war and the need to have a clear goal before entering. Yeah, sure. Meanwhile, Trump, Musk, and the rest of the billionaire elites that put him in office will be just fine. As will I because I made the right economic moves, perhaps a bit early, but certainly right. I will continue to make my salary, without working, because I invested thinking of Trump. Even the few equities I have are paying between 3-6% in dividends, that percentage getting higher every day as Trump guts the market with his tariffs. Gotta love VZ. Last time I did this was Obama just before the Obama/Bush crash seizing Wachovia’s death interest rate of 5% just before they went broke and got bought. I thought I would ride it out, but even at five years, Obama’s slow recovery ultimately forced me back into equities as fixed asset rates dropped to next to nothing. Five year buffer defense is best I can do.
What’s in your wallet, Joseph? Soon to be moths I reckon.
My dad taught me to always keep a dollar in my wallet