Putin’s Woes are Growing – Potential Civil War?
It would appear that the Ukrainian offense has begun – and it is a lot more complex than originally believed. It is no longer a war IN Ukraine between the Russian military and the Ukrainian military. The Russian side has broken down into several significant facets – and none of them benefiting Putin.
The war between the militaries
Initially, the war was between the perceived mighty Russian military and the weaker Ukrainian forces. Most of the world – and especially Putin – expected the war to be over quickly, with Russian forces taking Kyiv in a matter of days. That would topple the government and President Zelenskyy would be dead.
Instead, the Russian war machine was not only stopped in its tracks but was pushed out of western Ukraine all together. Putin’s back-up strategy was to concentrate on ground gains in eastern Ukraine – and he had some success – most notably taking the “bridge” region between the Crimea and the Donbass. These gains were difficult and took a heavy toll on Russian military assets.
Putin then concentrated on indiscriminate war criminal terrorist attacks on civilian targets throughout Ukraine. In yet another humanitarian atrocity, Putin blew up a major dam in Ukraine to hinder Ukraine’s forces from crossing the Dnieper River. These are acts of desperation with little long-term benefit to Putin’s ground war.
Over and over, the weakness and incompetence of the Russian military was on display. Desertion is a serious problem. It was obvious to everyone – including Putin – that there was no way Russia could conquer Ukraine without a lot of outside help.
The Wagner Group
To shore up its crumbling military, Putin turned to the Wagner Group – a brutal international mercenary group headed by Yevgeny Prigozhin, Putin’s former chef.
Initially, the Wagner Group proved to be a critical asset for Putin. Anywhere Russia was showing gains, the Wagner Group was involved. In many cases, they were outperforming the Russian military. It was the Wagner Group that took Bakhmut, not the Russian military. When Prigozhin threatened to pull out of Bakhmut, he predicted that the Russian military would not be able to hold it.
Prigozhin got increasingly critical of Putin and the Russian military. Today there is open hostility between the regular military and the mercenaries. They are even shooting at each other. Prigozhin recently captured a Russian colonel and accused Russian soldiers of planting mines in the Wagner Group’s retreat routes. Not only does Prigozhin attack Putin, but some also speculate that he wants to replace the Madman of Moscow.
In short, Putin is losing the loyalty and support of his most critical military asset.
Losing the means to wage war
In addition to the problem with the Wagner Group, the war has exposed three critical weaknesses in the Russian military – insufficient equipment with inferior maintenance, an inadequate and properly trained fighting force, and incompetent strategists and commanders.
In the initial march on Kyiv, many of the Russian tanks broke down, and the invasion was paused because the invading forces outran their supply line. To make up for the high death, capture, and desertion rate among Russian fighters, Putin had to institute a very unpopular conscription program – which led to an exodus of young men fleeing Mother Russia.
To supplement his own dwindling stockpile of weapons, Putin has had to turn to other rogue nations. Iran is now its principal supplier for military drones. North Korea is believed to be another source of war equipment. Interestingly, China – which could do the most to help – has declined to give Putin more than verbal support and money for oil.
On the other hand, NATO and other nations have built Ukraine into one of the leading military forces in the world. We could and should do more, but that is an issue I have covered in previous commentaries.
Attacks inside Mother Russia
While Ukraine had denied attacking inside Russia – as a condition for getting American military equipment – it is almost certain that there have been some discreet attacks on military facilities in Russia and support for a growing insurgent movement within Russia.
One well organized and well supplied group mounted an attack on Belgorod — a strategic military town near the Russian/Ukrainian border. In addition, there have been scores of attacks on military assets throughout Russia – from drones to Molotov Cocktails. More symbolic than destructive was the drone attack on the Kremlin itself. That had to be launched from an area near Moscow.
The counteroffensive
All the aforementioned actions are only the precursor to what is believed will be a massive counteroffensive into the Russian held regions in the south and east. Ukrainian forces are already advancing with a very motivated, well trained, and fully equipped military force. As the old Vaudevillians used to say, “You ain’t seen nothin’ yet.” (For those too young for Vaudeville expressions, it was later used as the title of a song by the Canadian music group Bachman–Turner Overdrive.)
The next month or two are likely to be the most critical in the war. Will the Ukraine offensive be as powerful as many predict? Or does Putin have more tricks up his sleeve – like blowing up dams — to blunt the counteroffensive? Will the offensive force Putin into negotiations? Or is Zelenskyy determined that the only acceptable outcome is the removal of Russian troops from every corner of Ukraine?
Putin dumped?
It is going so bad for Putin that there is credible speculation that he may be removed from power as those around him lose confidence in his leadership. Perhaps all the talk about serious health problems is the precursor. That may not be good news – depending on who would replace him.
There are no crystal ball answers to those questions – only opinions. Mine is that this is the beginning of the end for Putin. What do you think?
So, there ‘tis.
My thoughts are, at this point, pretty unlikely there will be fruitful negotiations until Putin is forced out by the Russians, or a subset therein. He can no longer extradite himself and I don’t think the Ukrainians’ will stop. He acted crazy all along but seems a bit desperate at this point.
As far as Joe being too slow, too late, and not enough, what can I say: it’s seems he picked right. The war has not escalated beyond the borders or into more powerful nuclear. You can say it never would have happened, but this is what happened on Joe’s watch. Plus Ukraine is holding it’s own or better, weaponization is growing bigger and better everyday, all under Joe’s watch. NATO has not faltered, if anything stronger now than at the beginning adding countries too —– all under Joe’s watch.
While after a while, and for a while, I wanted more, faster, giving the current status, I am glad Joe is smarter than I and, IMO, he’s right and I was wrong to think elsewise, given the current status.
I tend to agree Larry, I think Putin’s days may be numbered, and, I think Russia’s days are numbered. He has managed to help bring NATO back together, managed to get NATO on another 800 miles of his borders, embarrassed Russia, and relegated Russia’s already struggling economy that has lost hundreds of thousands of intelligent people, to be a third world economy for the next 50 -100 years. Yet for all of this, only around 25% are against him in any open fashion which includes some of the media, but the caveat is that Russians are not free to speak up so it’s tough to tell just how much negativity and anti-Putin sentiment there is in Russia. And the Russians willing to talk on another website say that they doubt Russia will change even if Putin is deposed. According to them the mentality of Russian society is that they seem to prefer or at least gravitate towards strong authoritarian leaders that abuse them. People just like Putin, just like Stalin. It is part of the Russian psyche. So it would not surprise me if another nasty strongman takes over or is elected in place of Putin. They also say it will take many years to deprogram Russian minds from all of the propaganda Putin has been feeding them for the last 20 years. And thanks to that propaganda a significant portion of the population still supports him, but this will change if Putin declares another conscription, and he knows it. Not a single Russian I speak with has any optimism that Russia will change for the better. So the end of the war in Ukraine is really the beginning of Russia’s problems because now they will have plenty of time to look at themselves for all the misery they have caused others as well as themselves. This is when Putin will have his biggest problems, and he knows it. So he has only one strategy, a war of attrition, a very long war where NATO and Ukraine are grind down. And this is why we need to support Ukraine in taking back their land as soon as possible. Expect that he is hoping Trump wins the GOP primary and general election. Ole Joe may have been slow and hesitant in delivering arms, but he contained the war which kept NATO strong and together and worked against Putin. Yup, slick Mr. Putin could not beat our Ole Joe. Maybe 50 – 100 years from now, history will look back and give him credit for preventing WWIII and nuclear war. Time will tell.
Tom .. I agree with most everything you wrote here, but you conclusion — that Ole Joe beat Putin. I think NATO and Ukraine are beating Putin — plus a few other nations. But Putin intimidate Biden throughout the invasion. We announce no on-the-ground support and we pulled out those who were there in the background advising. Biden limited the sanctions although he lied about throwing everything we had at them. He initially refused to send the most sophisticated weapons. He still will not send fighter jets — as are other nations. He ordered Ukraine not to attack Russia. Biden was not leading NATO. He was being dragged by other NATO nations — such as England, Poland and the Baltic states. Had Biden been all in at the onset — even threatening direct military action — Russian may never have invaded … or the war would be over by now. He did not prevent the war from being escalated … but only prevented Ukraine for responding to Russian escalation. There was never going to be a World War III. You were only intimidated by threats of a bully. In this imaginary World War III, who was going to be on Putin’s side??? Not even Belarus. Certainly no China or North Korea. Maybe Iran????