
<p>Those on the left are claiming a major victory for the abortion proponents. ; And it was. It was a lopsided victory (59 to 41 percent). ; In this case, a “no” vote meant keeping abortion protection in the Kansas Constitution.</p>



<p>There can be no doubt that a majority of the voters in Kansas want to keep the state constitution as is. ; But what broader conclusions can we draw from that vote – especially as it may affect other actions in other states and the 2022 midterm elections?</p>



<p>The general analysis of Democrats and their media allies is that this indicates the importance of abortion as a decisive issue for voters in November. ; They believe the decision to overturn Roe v. Wade will have independents, suburban and black women, and many Republicans casting ballots for Democrats. ; Many see it as THE defining issue of the upcoming campaign.</p>



<p>Certainly, the left-wing media will be giving it constant publicity as part of their overall strategy to support the Democratic Party &#8212; but the Kansas vote is not necessarily the best indicator of the impact abortion will have on the vote in November.</p>



<p>The abortion advocates had the traditional advantage in such plebiscites. ; As Democrat strategist David Axelrod noted before the vote, the “no” side has a significant advantage. ; The knee-jerk reaction of voters is to vote “no” on any referendum. ; That is especially true if there was potential for confusion because of the way the proposition is worded. ; There was some of that in this case.</p>



<p>However, the natural tendency to vote “no” and any potential confusion is not likely to have changed the outcome in this because of the margin.</p>



<p>More importantly, what about the impact on the November elections? ; Abortion advocates believe the Kansas vote portends huge problems for pro-life Republican candidates. ; That may be more wishful thinking than good analysis.</p>



<p>The referendum was a vote on abortion – and only abortion. ; It was THE issue in that referendum. ; The political campaigns to be decided in less than 100 days – and even sooner with early voting – will depend on a wide variety of complex issues. ; Voting on a single-issue referendum is very different than voting for a candidate based on an array of issue and personality considerations.</p>



<p>Elections are decided by what voters decide to decide upon. ; Abortion may be a top issue for a small percentage of American voters, but the vast majority will be weighing other issues –packages of issues. ; There are extremely few single-issue voters.</p>



<p>Abortion has never been a major deciding issue. ; Democrats are hoping that the reaction to the overturning of Roe v. Wade will move it up in importance in the minds of voters. ; It probably will to some extent, but it is not likely to be one of those so-called “key issues.”</p>



<p>One of the reasons is that most candidates are running for offices that have nothing to do with abortion. ; Voters will be evaluating candidates on the positions they take relative to the offices they seek. ; Abortion will not be a consideration for most voters when casting ballots for school boards, sheriffs, state treasurers, etc., etc., etc.</p>



<p>Even with offices that may have some tangential involvement with abortion – such as Governors and legislators – there are many other critical issues involved in those campaigns.</p>



<p>One-third of the electorate will cast their ballots for Democrats because that is what they do – and no one issue changes that. ; Another third of the electorate will cast their ballots for Republicans – because that is what they do.</p>



<p>The critical third are the independent and the “leaners.” ; They will be weighing an array of a complex issues to arrive at their voting decisions. ; If the past is prologue, abortion will not be at the top of the list of issues influencing voters.</p>



<p>Kansas was a win for the pro-abortion crowd, but not the bellwether those on the left believe it to be.</p>



<p>So, there ‘tis.  ;</p>

Kansas and Abortion
