Kamala Will Not Save the Dems if Biden Steps Aside

A well-known professor who accurately predicted 9 of the last ten elections says that Kamala Harris is unlikely to save the Democrats even if she replaces Joe Biden.

Allan Lichtman, a presidential historian and professor who had correctly predicted nine out of the last 10 elections, has a word of advice for the Democrats. He has said that Biden is the best person to contest the upcoming election and Harris cannot rescue the Democrats.

Lichtman has correctly predicted the outcomes of presidential elections since 1984. This is a record number of nine out of the last ten elections. The only occasion when he got it wrong was in 2000 when he predicted that Al Gore would win the election. George W Bush won the electoral college vote and took over as the US President. Many believe this to still be a correct prediction for Lichtman, as the Supreme Court handed Bush his victory. The professor bases his predictions on a metric made up of 13 key factors.

13 Key Indicators

According to the professor, there are 13 key indicators in the form of true or false questions, and if a party fails in six or more of the 13 indicators, it loses the election. He stated that Biden has passed in seven of his key indicators, including incumbency, no significant primary contest, no recession during the election, a strong long-term economy based on real per capita economic growth compared to the average of the previous two terms, major policy changes, no major scandal pertaining directly to the president and an uncharismatic challenger.

As to Harris, on the other hand, the Democrats lost two of the keys that Biden had already secured: incumbency and the primary contest. He pointed out that, per his record, Democrats have high chances of losing the election if this were to happen. He says the only way to change this indicator score would be for Biden to step down, now, as the US President and for Harris to take over the presidency for a few months. This would then enable her to gain the incumbency key.

Such a move is highly unlikely. So according to Professor Lichtman, if Biden remains in office but decided not to run and hands the top of the ticket to Harris, she will lose to Donald Trump.