
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Based on many years of experience, I have consistently predicted that – win or lose &#8212; Republicans would fare better than the polls suggest. ; It happened in 2016 and again in 2020.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Now, it appears that the those on the left are picking up on that reality. ; The <em>New York Times</em> published an article by Nate Cohn under the headline: “Yes, the polling signs are flashing red again.” ; He warns that the reported tamping down of the Republican wave in the upcoming 2022 midterm elections – as being seen in national polls &#8212; may not be accurate. ; That wave may be rolling in unabated.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">That same sentiment was carried by Robert Cahaly ;of the Trafalgar Group. ; Appearing on CNN’s Saturday morning “Smerconish” show, Cahaly pointed to a report by the American Association of Public Opinion Research that compared actual results to pre-election polling. ; It found that the 2016 polling accuracy was the worst in more than 40 years. ; (We all can remember the stunned look on the media personalities as President Trump rolled on to victory.)</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">They put the 2020 elections as the worst in 20 years. ; Despite the controversy at the top of the ticket, Republicans had a very good day in down ballot offices – something the polls did not see coming.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The Trafalgar Group has some bragging rights in that regard. ; They were among the only polling organizations that got it right in 2016. ; As most of the pollsters predicted that Hillary Clinton had a “firewall” with the Midwest states of Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin, Trafalgar numbers gave the win in those states to Trump.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Both Cohn and Cahaly argue that both the national and local pollsters are making the same mistakes again. ; They have not sufficiently changed their “modeling” – and are going to overestimate Democrat voter support … again.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">It has long been argued that the major pollsters have a natural bias toward Democrats. ; They rely too much on the fact that there are more registered Democrats than registered Republicans. ; They seem to miss the lean of independents toward the GOP and the number of Democrats who cross over in the voting booth.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Analysis of polling after an election show where some of the polling bias may exist. ; In creating their models, polling companies have tended to be overly optimistic on the turnout among young voters, Hispanics and other minorities. ; ;</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Pollsters may also over sample urban and suburban voters because they tend to be more responsive to taking the telephone survey. ; Rejection – hang ups – is measurably higher among Republicans, conservatives and rural folks. ; Some are just harder to reach.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">They also fail to take into consideration a variation of the “Bradley Effect.” ; In 1982, when Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley was running for California governor, polls showed him an easy winner – but he lost. ; The error in the polling was attributed to a large number of white voters – mostly Democrats – who did not want to go “on record” as voting against a black candidate – especially of their party.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The “Effect” has since been seen as a non-racial phenomenon in races in which one candidate or party endures a lot of politically motivated negative publicity before an election. ; For the last six years, the national media has been brutally attacking the GOP – attempting to shame voters from supporting Republican candidates. ; The result is that a significant number of Republican voters may be non-committal when polled – or even fib to the pollster.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">And for all the flaws in the polling, there is another phenomenon. ; Democrats tend to do better in the polls in the earlier weeks of the campaign season – August and September. ; Races tighten up in October. ; We may already be seeing the cusp of that phenomenon. ;</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Thanks to the nature of the polling and political reporting, Democrats and those on the left are demonstrating a rising level of optimism. ; If the past is prologue, they may be heading into another bewildering and bitter loss.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">So, there ‘tis.</p>

It still may be a wave for the GOP
