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It still may be a wave for the GOP

It still may be a wave for the GOP

Based on many years of experience, I have consistently predicted that – win or lose — Republicans would fare better than the polls suggest.  It happened in 2016 and again in 2020.

Now, it appears that the those on the left are picking up on that reality.  The New York Times published an article by Nate Cohn under the headline: “Yes, the polling signs are flashing red again.”  He warns that the reported tamping down of the Republican wave in the upcoming 2022 midterm elections – as being seen in national polls — may not be accurate.  That wave may be rolling in unabated.

That same sentiment was carried by Robert Cahaly of the Trafalgar Group.  Appearing on CNN’s Saturday morning “Smerconish” show, Cahaly pointed to a report by the American Association of Public Opinion Research that compared actual results to pre-election polling.  It found that the 2016 polling accuracy was the worst in more than 40 years.  (We all can remember the stunned look on the media personalities as President Trump rolled on to victory.)

They put the 2020 elections as the worst in 20 years.  Despite the controversy at the top of the ticket, Republicans had a very good day in down ballot offices – something the polls did not see coming.

The Trafalgar Group has some bragging rights in that regard.  They were among the only polling organizations that got it right in 2016.  As most of the pollsters predicted that Hillary Clinton had a “firewall” with the Midwest states of Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin, Trafalgar numbers gave the win in those states to Trump.

Both Cohn and Cahaly argue that both the national and local pollsters are making the same mistakes again.  They have not sufficiently changed their “modeling” – and are going to overestimate Democrat voter support … again.

It has long been argued that the major pollsters have a natural bias toward Democrats.  They rely too much on the fact that there are more registered Democrats than registered Republicans.  They seem to miss the lean of independents toward the GOP and the number of Democrats who cross over in the voting booth.

Analysis of polling after an election show where some of the polling bias may exist.  In creating their models, polling companies have tended to be overly optimistic on the turnout among young voters, Hispanics and other minorities.  

Pollsters may also over sample urban and suburban voters because they tend to be more responsive to taking the telephone survey.  Rejection – hang ups – is measurably higher among Republicans, conservatives and rural folks.  Some are just harder to reach.

They also fail to take into consideration a variation of the “Bradley Effect.”  In 1982, when Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley was running for California governor, polls showed him an easy winner – but he lost.  The error in the polling was attributed to a large number of white voters – mostly Democrats – who did not want to go “on record” as voting against a black candidate – especially of their party.

The “Effect” has since been seen as a non-racial phenomenon in races in which one candidate or party endures a lot of politically motivated negative publicity before an election.  For the last six years, the national media has been brutally attacking the GOP – attempting to shame voters from supporting Republican candidates.  The result is that a significant number of Republican voters may be non-committal when polled – or even fib to the pollster.

And for all the flaws in the polling, there is another phenomenon.  Democrats tend to do better in the polls in the earlier weeks of the campaign season – August and September.  Races tighten up in October.  We may already be seeing the cusp of that phenomenon. 

Thanks to the nature of the polling and political reporting, Democrats and those on the left are demonstrating a rising level of optimism.  If the past is prologue, they may be heading into another bewildering and bitter loss.

So, there ‘tis.

About The Author

Larry Horist

So,there‘tis… The opinions, perspectives and analyses of Larry Horist Larry Horist is a businessman, conservative writer and political strategist with an extensive background in economics and public policy. Clients of his consulting firm have included such conservative icons as Steve Forbes and Milton Friedman. He has served as a consultant to the Nixon White House and travelled the country as a spokesman for President Reagan’s economic reforms. He has testified as an expert witness before numerous legislative bodies, including the U. S. Congress. Horist has lectured and taught courses at numerous colleges and universities, including Harvard, Northwestern, DePaul universities, Hope College and his alma mater, Knox College. He has been a guest on hundreds of public affairs talk shows, and hosted his own program, “Chicago In Sight,” on WIND radio. Horist was a one-time candidate for mayor of Chicago and served as Executive Director of the City Club of Chicago, where he led a successful two-year campaign to save the historic Chicago Theatre from the wrecking ball. An award-winning debater, his insightful and sometimes controversial commentaries appear frequently on the editorial pages of newspapers across the nation. He is praised by readers for his style, substance and sense of humor. According to one reader, Horist is the “new Charles Krauthammer.” He is actively semi-retired in Boca Raton, Florida where he devotes his time to writing. So, there ‘tis is Horist’s signature sign off.

15 Comments

  1. Andy

    One thing I do not think many are accounting for. The massive increase in voter registration by women because of SCOTUS. I’ve read accounts of 70% of new voters are women. Who do you think they are going to vote for? A candidate who is going to enslave them or the other one?

    • Doug

      They will vote for the Hitler types that support babies being murdered

      • ben is back

        But the Hitler types are all Trumplicants; didn’t you see the one sportin the short ‘stache who just got 4 years for being Hitler on parade during the 1/6 Trump Festival at the Capitol?

        ““I know this sounds idiotic, but I’m from New Jersey,” Hale-Cusanelli told jurors when he said he didn’t know Congress met at the Capitol. “I feel like an idiot, it sounds idiotic, and it is.” OK, forget my last statements about NJ having the top public school system in America :>)

        But hey, after the Trump-appointed judge said this guy’s testimony is highly dubious, not a good sign, it was let known that Trump himself issued support for little Hitler bringing his Mommy on stage and talking pardons.

        Sorry, King Trump has spoken. You Republicans got the Hitler endorsement all sown up. Dummkopf!

          • Doug

            Ben is queer and posting bull shit as usual. You NJ people are a crowd of leftist assholes.

          • Max

            LOL…You need a history lesson because you have it ALL BACK ASSWARD…The only ONLY IS YOUR BOY “BRAIN DEAD BIDEN”./..SOUNDS LIKE YOU TOO ARE BRAIN DEAD…GET READY FOR THE WORSE ASS KICKING YOUR PARTY HAS EVER HAD….GOING TO BE BLOODY

        • X

          Don’t blame NJ schools.. New Jersey is the primary hub of all the German organizations in the country. I’m not saying they are all or even a lot of them are Nazis, but I’ve been at German fests where a few will get drunk and start Heil Hitlering… There are probably a few in every crowd, and it wouldn’t be surprising that a few like Hale-Cusinelli get taken in. From the name, I would say he’s probably not even of German heritage, but the fascination with German culture can lead down some bad roads.

          • larry Horist

            X aka Joseph S Bruder … In another commentary I expressed my fear that you are starting to sound like a hatemongering fringe nutcase. And now this. You seem to be embracing Hitler-style slander on a group of citizens with contorted examples. Judging people by their name. You do not have to be German to go “down some bad roads?”
            An you constantly think you political adversaries should all go to jail. Goebels 101. Get a grip.

          • Larry kuhn

            I’m proud of my German forefathers.

          • Frank stetson

            Well, that proves Kuhn is gay

            He says he’s proud of his four fathers.

            You must be Ben’s buddy.

  2. JoeyP

    It will HOPEFULLY come . . . PROVIDED the REPUBLICANS don’t SCREW it UP! They’ve got a GOOD chance, ESOCIALLY if they FOLLOW through on their promises.

  3. MSGLeo

    Yes, there will be a red wave because Democrats have proven time and time again that they know nothing about the economy and even less about inflation. With gas prices still up over 50% along with groceries and building supplies will make people rush out to vote those in charge out of office.

  4. Dwayne Oxford

    Elders remember Newt’s “Contract with America”.
    Yup, bunch of RINOs, didn’t amount to squat.
    Idiots NEED to QUIT supporting GOP/RNC and support individual CONSERVATIVE!! candidates.

  5. Max

    This is going to be a huge red wave..do you support freedom or do you want to be part of Bidens Nazi regime…Dems lose over 100 house seats and 5-8 Senate seats…The pollsters and all of the Democrats nazi news regime will be left SHOCKED….THEIR WHOLE LIVES WILL BE TURNED UPSIDE DOW….IT WILL BE SO FUN TO WATCH

  6. X

    Larry, why is it you feel you have to disclose my identity every time you reply to me? How many other writers do you do that to? I decided to use random single character identities because one of your readers kept impersonating mine. The website didn’t care enough to address the issue.

    I said nothing in that post about anyone going to jail. Not sure why you felt the need to attack me about that.

    I did not judge Hale-Cusinelli by his name, merely pointed out that it doesn’t sound like a German name. My judgement on that particular person would be based on the fact that he dresses up like Hitler, claims to be a Nazi and spouts off hate rhetoric, and oh yeah, has been convicted of attacking the Capitol with Trump’s mob.

    I am not of German heritage, but I grew up in an area with lots of Germans, have played music at German Oktoberfests, and and have even danced with German dance groups. The US headquarters of several German organizations are located in New Jersey, and they have huge German fests there. I have played at German dances where the locals get drunk and start Heil Hitlering, which was the band’s cue (it was always in our contract) to stop playing.

    I explicitly said “not all or even a lot” of Germans are into Nazi ideals. I have belonged to ethnic clubs where an “outsider” is infatuated with the culture, and sometimes they go overboard. In my case, I grew up with and was attracted to the music and language. Others might be attracted to the war history of Germany. How they come to Nazism is not the point, but they certainly have a greater chance of being exposed to some ex-WW2 Nazi sympathizers in New Jersey as opposed to somewhere else, just by sheer number of Germans in NJ. Most of the WW2 soldiers have died off, but there are still some second generation who carry on the “tradition”.

    I get it – you dislike me. But it seems pretty unprofessional to attack someone who is merely commenting on another’s post, and not at all disagreeing with anything you said. You don’t do that for other writers.