Investors Betting on Trump Landslide After Assassination Attempt
Incumbent candidates, which Donald Trump basically is, always get a big bump in the polls after their respective party conventions. Add to that the Biden Debate debacle and the attempted assassination of Trump, and Investors are betting that the former president may be poised for a landslide in November, the likes of which have not been seen in decades.
“The election is likely to be a landslide. This probably reduces uncertainty,” said Nick Ferres, chief investment officer at Vantage Point Asset Management, citing polls that showed a surge in support for Reagan after the attempt on his life in 1981.
World leaders and U.S. politicians condemned the shooting, while executives, including Tesla chief Elon Musk and hedge fund manager Bill Ackman, declared their support for Trump.
Before the shooting, markets had reacted to the prospect of a Trump presidency by pushing the dollar higher and positioning for a steeper U.S. Treasury yield curve, and those moves extended a little in Asia trade on Monday morning.
Ten-year Treasury futures dipped about 13 ticks, and the dollar rose on the euro and yen. U.S. stock futures inched higher.
Immigration and the economy have been the main issues for voters who, according to Reuters/Ipsos polls, see Trump as the better candidate for the economy, even as Biden seeks to benefit from solid growth, slowing inflation, and low unemployment.
Under Trump, markets expect hawkish trade policy and looser regulation over issues from climate change to cryptocurrency. Bitcoin is up roughly 7% since the shooting.
Investors also expect an extension of corporate and personal tax cuts, fueling concerns about rising budget deficits. That could drive bond selling, said Michael Purves, CEO of Tallbacken Capital Advisors in New York, and potentially add to inflation as interest rates fall.
“If (Trump) wins and does this stuff he said he is going to do, you are going to see a much bigger selloff in the back-end of the bond market,” he said. “I think the bond market is the big (election) trade this year, rather than equities.”
Trump also said in an interview in February he would not re-appoint Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, whose second four-year term as chair will expire in 2026.
Overall, stocks have gained in the two weeks since the shaky debate from Biden, and both the S&P 500 (.SPX), opens a new tab and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) opened new tab indexes hit record highs on Friday, and the S&P 500 is up 18% this year.
“Around the five presidential elections of the last 20 years, CEO confidence, consumer sentiment, and particularly small business optimism have shifted more favorably in response to Republican victories than Democratic victories,” analysts at Goldman Sachs wrote.
“To the extent improved sentiment leads to an increase in spending and investment, a Trump victory could boost the earnings outlooks for some firms even without substantial policy changes.”
BS: market, like your story, tanked today.
Investors did better under Obama and Biden economies.
Market, under Trump, was chaotic with one of the bigger historic crashes due to his poor covid response, worse than most developed nations. Biden brought us back better. Numerically and statistically speaking, dealing just with the market.
“Trump defeats Biden” as a lead title for another opinion soup in which you again rehash your old talking points on Biden. I realize you are not about to have an epiphany of faith which may scrub your opinion clean of dark notions that an unbridgeable abyss lays between you and those you oppose on the political left. It’s more than a preference bias with you and a majority of Americans. Prejudice deep in the consciousness that drives perceptions and develops opinions has people at odds and in anger separate themselves from family, friends, neighbors, long held associations, fellow church members and any person found different in opinion and pre-judged unworthy of your respect.
To the last delegate or attendee at Thursday’s final Republican National Convention no one there left thinking about establishing unity and community with people considered “others” and “not like us”. The “others” in our country are not the enemy, as different opinion possessing persons have become.
Larry, your PBP identity is tied to some visceral dislike for persons with an ideology ascribing to politics you determine as liberal, therefore, Democrat by definition. People, fellow Americans, you separate like a shepherd separates animals, desirable from undesirable, white sheep from black sheep, liked political opinion from individuals’ with political opinions unliked in the extreme. This is a mindset not uncommon in either party. In my world I come in contact with individuals that shun me and those like me they pre judge and tag with the label of liberal. Unity is not in their vocabulary or social skill set. As the word’s meaning, intent, and spirit does not appear understood by you in your PBP preacher’s robe. Although, in previous days and in your comments posted on this site, a little light of human compassion was allowed to escape for a fleeting moment. Truth is that brief moment happened and produced shock and awe consequences affecting the opinion formed up to your revelation. That being. you have personal association with self admitted politically liberal persons who you refer to as friends. In these instances you must have clearly come to agree with your friends to recognize the opinions on which there is disagreement. So, the general consensus is, the relationship between you and the friends is of more value than what the cost maybe for each in sacrificing a slice of one’s opinion for friendship sake. In a microcosmic example that’s unity. Unity has what humanity craves for meaning, thriving community, success as a society, and survival as a nation (undivided).
We shall see what comes from the Democratic National Convention in August. I look forward to the Democrats providing entertainment some what different than the GOP delivered on Fox News and Entertainment.
Biden has his foibles mainly with speaking clearly through the stutter that inhibits word flow and creates anxiety that others with natural speech patterns find normal. I find that people on both the right and left might know that Biden has a stutter when he speaks, but they don’t comprehend the reality that a stutter does not directly correlate to intelligence and mental capacity. Biden at his age has more capability in the job of POTUS than his detractors realize and more than whoever the Dems can nominate to stand instead. Trump at his age is being keep afloat merely on the strength of his long experience and practice being a showman who is in his element when he is at the podium alone and before a noisy rambunctious crowd.
He draws energy from a cheering crowd and loves the cheerleader’s call that brings people to their feet as they chant. His audience is not silent even while he is addressing the crowd and repeating words he knows they want to hear. The truth has no bearing on what he is claiming is fact. While his audience is running on convention produced high spirits, anything he claims in his talk is the truth. When the dust in the hall settled and all have left the arena what you are left with is, the truth according to Trump. If one accepts the story he fabricates, then they accept him for what he claims. Yet, does Trump have the mental and moral strength surpassing Biden’s demonstrated dependability?
I know Biden is not flashy and verbose like Trump. But the President is not to be the front man on a TV really show.
Biden understands what it is to be President and govern. Trump encourages and promotes chaos with his style and leads no one. Chaos can not be lead. Trump, then has the administrative branch all to himself. He listens to no one making decisions unilaterally without accepting staff counsel. Is this the way a successful railroad is run? That depends entirely on your definition for success. Trumps version for success does not match up with reality and truth.
You’re a liar
Seth, ez to say, hard to prove……..apparently…
Not hard to prove at all guys. It may depend on which “market” you are referring to. See *https://www.axios.com/2020/11/01/trump-stock-market-performance-eclipsed-obama* for a very nice simple chart.
By the numbers: The S&P 500 grew by 44.5% since Trump’s inauguration through the end of October 2020. This comes up short of former President Obama’s 66.1% through the comparable time period, but well above the -15.8% for former President George W. Bush.
Trump’s market performance also trails Obama in terms of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, although it tops Obama when it comes to the Nasdaq.
Context: Obama took office in the midst of an economic recession, so much of his S&P 500 performance was a rebound from the depths. Trump inherited a bull market that continued to rampage, outside of a brief dip early in the pandemic.
Now as I always said, Trump had some genius in that he always released bad news when the market was up and good news when the market was down. While to some it may appear to have created chaos within the market, it was controlled chaos.
Seth says, without any proof, that my statement is a lie.
From Market Watch: “Like no president before him, Donald Trump used the stock market as a scorecard, arguing that sharp gains were a vindication of his economic stewardship.
Trump leaves office with U.S. major benchmarks near all-time highs. But how did his performance stack up with his predecessors?
Not too bad, according to major indexes. Based on annualized returns for the S&P 500 SPX, -0.71%, the U.S. benchmark, Trump (+13.7%) saw the third-best performance of the 15 presidents who have served since 1929, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Trump, however, slightly trailed his immediate predecessor, Barack Obama (+13.8%). Bill Clinton (+15.2%) claims the top spot.”
Here’s Forbes view: *https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2020/02/29/four-charts-comparing-trumps-vs-obamas-stock-market-returns/* Oooops, looks like I was right again here Seth.
And for Biden, from the conservative WSJ: “The Dow is up 45% since Biden defeated Trump in 2020. At the equivalent point in Trump’s term, it was up 34%, and it finished his term 70% higher.”
Sorry Seth, facts are our friend and numbers do not lie, people do. Remember, I was just dealing with Trump’s favorite metric, the market. I would suggest looking for proof before inserting foot into mouth. Chances are that I have already. Once in awhile I wing it, but pretty rare. How about you?
I trust your figures Frank. You are always right on the investment stuff like flies on poob brother!! Blessings to you and your portfolio!!!
Actually, re finances, I must confess, I am $3K off my all time high, I did not pierce it this quarter. Next quarter….. I forgot I slid tens of thousands into checking to pay taxes where I did not estimate that Biden’s market would be so good. So, too much profit, no withholding or estimates on the profits, and I got interest (never much) and penalty (might be a first). Then, on top of that, TuborTx failed and would not submit so I paid online, mailed the paper in separately and now all is lost. Except, under Biden, the IRS expanded personal support so I could call after it appears they don’t payment (well, it left my checking account???) and no paperwork (first time I didn’t register mail it, why? they had the money). Supposedly, the pro from Dover, (IRS) said it will all clear in 4 weeks, they are behind. Worse part is now I am paying estimated based on this rate and I am pretty sure I can’t make that much two years in a row so expecting a refund next year.
But wanted to come clean and say —- enough of fixed assests; I gotta find something else for the first major kick-out of these CDs in August. Maybe MUNI’s for the taxable, and something wild for the taxed. Maybe internet security….. maybe some crowdstrike to going with my solarwinds (my kid worked there just before the fall)…..
By the way Frank, my wife just got off of the phone with friends in Taiwan and Mainland China. She said that after Trump stated in his nomination speech that he would not defend Taiwan that the next day the Taiwan market crashed! Seems like Trump was doing more than giving a speech. I think his speech was also designed to telegraph to Xi and his lap dog Putin! For all we know, Trump may have just used our election process to manipulate the Taiwan market where he knew what he was going to say so he pulled his money out while market was up, then after his stupid statement, buy low after the market crashes.
Sounds like Trump will also discard the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979.
I sure hope Joe and the Dems can pull things together fast!
I have watched Trump move many a market as a President can, if they are stupid enough to do so.
I have also watched him, twice, fuck with US economic foundation by stating he was looking at writing down our debt. Backing our debt is the keystone for everything. It is the only thing that has kept us going during both Bush and Trump’s economic collapses. Both times he belched out this invitation to economic Armageddon, he immediately went silent. When have you known Trump to silence himself? When have you known him to not repeat these idiotic thoughts? I am guessing he got that phone call from the person who, with some words, could do that. The guy, in conjunction with those other guys, that can shut Trump up with a word. Both Trump and the caller are very scary thoughts.
My sibling just got back from Taiwan, found it really cool. I wouldn’t doubt Trump messing with markets for personal profit. He knows how to hide money, Manafort and the rest probably taught him much about profiting Internationally, but I would expect you could find associations to prove your point, if it’s there. Cuz neither Trump nor Kushner would do this without supporting help. And the kids are too stupid.
He said it once before the 2016 and once a couple years later; both times went dark immediately on the subject.
As far as telegraphing who can take what after his election — why not — that way he can claim no wars under his watch, and it’s OK for them to take what’s theirs while Trump figures out how to invade Canada which should be ours anyways. After all, we need their oil.
During the first reign of the Felon Rapist King, Trump’s businesses took in millions from foreign governments. According to a Democratic House report, at least 20 paid and paid over $7.8 million with many others not assessed.
The Chinese embassy, a government-controlled airline and a state-owned bank spent millions on Trump properties as they sought to avoid sanctions or survive U.S. regulatory scrutiny. Chinese government-controlled entities alone spent over $5.5 million at three of Trump’s buildings.
Saudi Arabia ($615,000), Qatar ($465,000), Kuwait ($303,000) and India ($282,000) rounded up the top five spenders.
Philippines: $74,810, United Arab Emirates: $65,225, Democratic Republic of the Congo: $25,171, Kazakhstan: $23,772, Thailand: $11,340,
Self-Proclaimed Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus: $8,800, Mongolia: $8,486, Lebanon: $7,720, Philippines: $74,810, United Arab Emirates: $65,225, Democratic Republic of the Congo: $30,000, Kazakhstan: $23,772, Thailand: $11,340,
That was all based on a Democratic House Report specifying the amounts they uncovered and have documents. It’s $7.8M in total and notes the real total is much higher. Like the $3B that Kushner got from the Killer Saudi Prince of Hacking People Up.
CREW says it’s $160M: *https://www.citizensforethics.org/reports-investigations/crew-investigations/trump-made-up-to-160-million-from-foreign-countries-as-president/*
CREW is media biased as left of center and it’s data is deemed mostly factual as is usually, but you may want to check.
Da Presidency be berry berry profitable to the Trump Crime Family.