Hegseth odds up … Gabbard down

At this juncture, the only two Trump Cabinet picks that are in flux are Pete Hegseth, scheduled for Secretary of Defense, and Tulsi Gabbard, Trump’s pick to head the intelligence agencies.

Hegseth

Political observers and media types – who not long ago were declaring Hegseth’s prospect for confirmation between slim and none – are now giving the former FOX News personality a 50/50 chance of being confirmed.  (Personally, I agree that Hegseth’s chances have improved, but not sure they have reached 50/50).

If the pendulum is shifting to Hegseth’s favor, it is due to two factors.  The first is his dogged determination.  He took all the hits at the onset and is gradually whittling away at the opposition since.  Seems like his intense schedule of meetings with senators is having a positive effect.

The second factor has been Trump’s continuing support for Hegseth.  There were some leaks from the campaign that the President-elect was looking at other candidates for the job, but the man himself put those speculations to rest with a strong endorsement for Hegseth – at least for now.

Unless there is more evidence of sexual misconduct, I think that issue may have run its course.  He claims that any drinking problem was a youthful wild streak that could be excusable in the absence of any more recent alcohol problems.  He has had to do a 180-degree flip-flop on his attitude toward women in the military.  That still leaves him with a credibility problem.

Gabbard  

Gabbard was always going to be a close call.  Her Achilles Heel has been her general misalignment with U.S. foreign policy.  Her statement saying that Bashar al Asaad is not an enemy of the United States was maladroit and inaccurate at the time she made it.  Gabbard’s gaffe has been supersized by the overthrow of al Asaad in recent days.

Gabbard’s problem also has a lot to do with the office to which she is nominated by Trump.  It is the sancta sanctorum of America’s most important secrets – including ongoing espionage.  It covers both domestic and foreign operations.  There is no office where the public demands higher standards than in overseeing intelligence operations.

The concern is that with Gabbard in that office – and the fear (real or imagined) that secrets and relationships will not be as secure – is legitimate.  There is also concern that with Gabbard at the helm foreign allies will be less willing to share information.

Ironically, Gabbard has the right resume for the position based on her work when she was a Democrat member of Congress and a presidential candidate.  She would have been a shoo-in for almost any other Cabinet or agency position, but the bar is a bit higher when it comes to intelligence.

While there has been no gossip coming from the transition team that other possibilities are being considered, Gabbard has not yet gotten the kind of endorsement from Trump that Hegseth received.

To increase her chances, Gabbard needs to put more emphasis on her record and be more forceful in assuring senators – and the American people – that she has the right instincts for the job.

Summary

Based on more current events, I must now alter my predictions of a defeat for Hegseth and a win for  Gabbard.  I see them both in the “who knows” category.

So, there ‘tis.