
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">As we move into the actual primaries, it appears that former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley will be the greatest threat to President Trump’s reelection. The more important question is just how big of a threat she would be. ; So far second place among the GOP field of presidential candidates is a very distant second place.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Most observers have given Haley the win in all three of the GOP debates so far. ; But … she has not soared. ; She seems to be getting support from the dwindling field of GOP candidates – but not from Trump. ; With two months before the Iowa caucuses – and at least one more debate – the number of meaningful candidates has shrunk to five. ;</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">There may be another cut for the upcoming fourth debate. ; The only assured appearances are Haley and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. ; Any one of the others – South Carolina Senator Tim Scott, former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy – or even all of them could be eliminated.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">After the fourth debate, we are going to see numbers moving up significantly for either Haley or DeSantis. ; At least that is how I see it &#8212; and I am betting that Haley comes out on top.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">There are two things to watch in terms of a breakaway moment. Will one of the GOP challengers to Trump start to approach 35 percent national support – and will that candidate get reasonably good numbers in the early primaries? That is what they call “momentum.” It will happen within the next three months – or it will not happen at all.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Oh yeah! ; The third Debate.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">It was widely described as “lively” – meaning the candidates got into yelling contests. ; The two most interesting were the personality clash between the two ethnic Indian candidates – Haley and Ramaswamy. ; They squabbled over the use of Tik Tok – and it got heated when Ramaswamy brought up Haley’s daughter’s use of the infamous app.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Haley and DeSantis quibbled over who hates China the most now– but did not in the past. ; DeSantis brought up 10-year-old kind words Haley had for China when she – and every other governor &#8212; were soliciting Chinese business investment. ; Haley trumped DeSantis by pointing to Florida’s more recent engagements with the Middle Kingdom. ;</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The parameters of the abortion issue were set by Haley and Scott, with Haley arguing for doable abortion restrictions – and pointing out that there is no chance Congress would approve a national abortion ban. ; Scott stuck to banning abortions – with the usual exceptions – and supporting a national ban. ;</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">All the candidates gave unconditional support for Israel. ; All but DeSantis gave similar support to Ukraine – with DeSantis being less enthused over more funding. ;</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">I gave Haley the win because she was more substantive and sounded like she really knew what she was talking about. ; She actually had policies and proposals regarding the issues. ; The others seemed to be focusing on gotcha talking points and cheap shot attacks.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Of course, these debates have limited impact since viewership is low. ; Trump can correctly claim that voter interest drops when he is not on the stage.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Trump remains the gorilla NOT in the room. ; His strategy of speaking at rallies … railing against “the system” … using his court cases for political advantage … and staying out of the debates … seems to be working. ;</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">So, there ‘tis.</p>

Haley still dominates in the debates … but does it matter?
