GOP Poised to Wrest Senate Majority From the Dems

The Democrat’s hope to hold onto the Senate majority on Nov. 5 is waning.

Former President Trump’s strength in the upper Midwest is putting Senate Democrats on defense, giving the GOP hopes it can not only win the Senate majority but grow it beyond a seat or two. 

Republicans are already favored to win the Senate, with Sen. Joe Manchin (I) retiring in West Virginia and Sen. Jon Tester (D) seen as the underdog in Montana. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report has moved Montana’s Senate race to “lean Republican.”

With those two victories alone, Republicans would take the Senate majority as long as they don’t lose any seats.

Democrats have expressed hope about defeating Sen. Ted Cruz in Texas or Sen. Rick Scott in Florida, but both Republicans are favored.

Meanwhile, Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) is now in a toss-up race in Wisconsin, where polls also show Trump running neck and neck with Vice President Harris at the top of the ticket. Cook recently shifted that race from “leans Democrat” to “toss-up.”

And in Michigan, where the Biden administration’s Israel policies have turned off Arab American voters, the state’s open Senate seat is also considered a toss-up by Cook.

Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) has been a single ray of sunshine for Senate Democrats, with polls showing him leading Republican Bernie Moreno.

Democrats and the independents who currently caucus with them enjoy a 51 to 49 seat advantage in the United States Senate.

On election day, Republicans have 11 held seats up for election while Democrats must protect 23. Based on that alone, Republicans have a tremendously favorable electoral map to take the Senate majority. Republicans only need to hold Texas and flip West Virginia and Montana to gain control. Barring any last-minute surprises, the GOP has the inside track to secure the majority.

The presidential race remains too close to call. Controlling the Senate is critical if Republicans want to either check a potential Harris administration or advance Trump’s priorities.