
<p>One of the pitfalls of rendering political opinions too far into the future is that circumstances change the trajectory. ; I have opined in the past that I believed President Trump would not be able to mount a successful campaign for the presidency in 2924 – and that his greatest challenge would be in the primaries IF he was challenged by a credible candidate.</p>



<p>My analysis was based on the fact that Trump only won the 2016 nomination because there were a lot of opponents to divide up the anti-Trump vote. ; In fact, most of the Republican primary voters preferred a candidate other than Trump. ; In addition, his favorable rating among the voting public never exceeded 50 percent.</p>



<p>While I am not saying that Trump is the likely nominee of the Republican Party in 2024 – or that he will win the General election – I have shifted from “odds against” to “distinct possibility.”</p>



<p>So, what has changed? ; A number of things.</p>



<p>It is becoming less likely that should Trump jump into the race there will be a “credible” Republican alternative. ; There are a lot of them out there, but none seems to be gearing up for a run in 2024 – and that process would have to have started already to line up the grassroots support and money.</p>



<p>The most viable candidate, other than Trump, would be Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. ; He is actually my favorite, at the moment. ; But I feel certain that he will not run in 2024. ; It could be messy if Trump runs – and DeSantis is young enough to toss his hat in the ring for many years to come. ; Most Republican observers see DeSantis as the most likely Trump VP pick, should he run.</p>



<p>The second reason for my re-evaluation is Trump’s good luck. ; He would be running against one of the worst failed presidencies in modern times. ; Yes, there is a lot of time between now and November of 2024, but Biden does not look like he can be a contender. I have long viewed his running for a second term as even less likely than Trump. ; ;</p>



<p>The Biden presidency is so bad that even if age and health were not factors, he would face an uphill fight for the nomination – and they are factors. ; In the latest polls, Biden’s favorable rating has fallen to 36 percent. ; ;</p>



<p>It now seems more and more likely that the GOP will not only win the House in 2016 – and possibly the Senate – but it will be one of those wave elections all across the nation. ; It is shaping up to be what President Obama called a shellacking in 2014, when Republicans took the house with a 65-seat win. ; If that is the case, the GOP will have a LOT of momentum going into 2024.</p>



<p>But Democrats have more than a Biden/Harris problem. ; Their unrelenting hyperbolic attacks on the Republican Party as a bunch of authoritarian insurrectionists who will end the democracy by bringing down the American Republic is falling flat. ; It is such a far-fetched narrative that the American voters are rejecting it. ; We can know that from the current preference polls. ; Today, most American voters prefer to have the GOP running Congress. ; The Democrat’s fantastical fearmongering strategy is bellying up.</p>



<p>In addition to their fictional movie-like scenario, the Democrats are on the wrong side of the center-right nation with their increasingly radical left agenda. ; The voters see a dangerously failing foreign policy. ; They see the Democrats as soft on criminals – from failure of prosecutors to prosecute and policy to defund law enforcement as the reason for the unprecedented crime wave sweeping the nation.</p>



<p>Some of that crime issue also has to do with the open borders that are allowing criminals, drug cartellians and drugs flowing into the town and urban neighborhoods. ; Most Americans believe in legal immigration, and no among of political double-talk is convincing the public that Democrats are not leaving the borders open. ; This will become a crisis if the Biden administration does away with Title 42 – which will lead to multiple record increases in illegal border crossing.</p>



<p>Republicans are clearly winning the cultural wars. ; Gender obfuscation &#8212; such as former “men” winning women’s swimming championships &#8212; snowflake micro-aggression, the new list of personal pronouns, identity politics, political correctness, wokeness and the politicization of entertainment (think Disney) and sports (think NFL) are just a few of the issues that mainstream America rejects. ;</p>



<p>In other words, the nation appears to be talking up an anyone-one-but-a-Democrat for 2022 – and potentially 2024. ; The donkey Party has done it again. ; Made themselves more unpopular than Trump. ; All the effort that they have put into demonizing Trump and all Republicans is proving to be a monumental political miscalculation.</p>



<p>Then there is this. ; According to the latest ;Harvard CAPS-Harris poll, Trump would decisively defeat Biden by six points – 47 to 41.  ; That must have the rabid left totally unhinged. ; After all that effort to destroy both Trump and the Republican Party, and yet they appear to be the choice of the American people.</p>



<p>If you recall the catatonic shock the political left suffered when Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in 2016, just imagine the reaction if he should return to the Oval Office. ; The vision of that prospect may be just enough to put him over the top in 2024.</p>



<p>However, there is a long road to 2024, but I thought a trajectory correction was warranted in view of the Democrat’s unanticipated inability to win over the American people to their radical left-wing agenda. ; ;</p>



<p>So, there ‘tis.</p>

Can Trump return to the White House?
