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Can Trump return to the White House?

Can Trump return to the White House?

One of the pitfalls of rendering political opinions too far into the future is that circumstances change the trajectory.  I have opined in the past that I believed President Trump would not be able to mount a successful campaign for the presidency in 2924 – and that his greatest challenge would be in the primaries IF he was challenged by a credible candidate.

My analysis was based on the fact that Trump only won the 2016 nomination because there were a lot of opponents to divide up the anti-Trump vote.  In fact, most of the Republican primary voters preferred a candidate other than Trump.  In addition, his favorable rating among the voting public never exceeded 50 percent.

While I am not saying that Trump is the likely nominee of the Republican Party in 2024 – or that he will win the General election – I have shifted from “odds against” to “distinct possibility.”

So, what has changed?  A number of things.

It is becoming less likely that should Trump jump into the race there will be a “credible” Republican alternative.  There are a lot of them out there, but none seems to be gearing up for a run in 2024 – and that process would have to have started already to line up the grassroots support and money.

The most viable candidate, other than Trump, would be Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.  He is actually my favorite, at the moment.  But I feel certain that he will not run in 2024.  It could be messy if Trump runs – and DeSantis is young enough to toss his hat in the ring for many years to come.  Most Republican observers see DeSantis as the most likely Trump VP pick, should he run.

The second reason for my re-evaluation is Trump’s good luck.  He would be running against one of the worst failed presidencies in modern times.  Yes, there is a lot of time between now and November of 2024, but Biden does not look like he can be a contender. I have long viewed his running for a second term as even less likely than Trump.  

The Biden presidency is so bad that even if age and health were not factors, he would face an uphill fight for the nomination – and they are factors.  In the latest polls, Biden’s favorable rating has fallen to 36 percent.  

It now seems more and more likely that the GOP will not only win the House in 2016 – and possibly the Senate – but it will be one of those wave elections all across the nation.  It is shaping up to be what President Obama called a shellacking in 2014, when Republicans took the house with a 65-seat win.  If that is the case, the GOP will have a LOT of momentum going into 2024.

But Democrats have more than a Biden/Harris problem.  Their unrelenting hyperbolic attacks on the Republican Party as a bunch of authoritarian insurrectionists who will end the democracy by bringing down the American Republic is falling flat.  It is such a far-fetched narrative that the American voters are rejecting it.  We can know that from the current preference polls.  Today, most American voters prefer to have the GOP running Congress.  The Democrat’s fantastical fearmongering strategy is bellying up.

In addition to their fictional movie-like scenario, the Democrats are on the wrong side of the center-right nation with their increasingly radical left agenda.  The voters see a dangerously failing foreign policy.  They see the Democrats as soft on criminals – from failure of prosecutors to prosecute and policy to defund law enforcement as the reason for the unprecedented crime wave sweeping the nation.

Some of that crime issue also has to do with the open borders that are allowing criminals, drug cartellians and drugs flowing into the town and urban neighborhoods.  Most Americans believe in legal immigration, and no among of political double-talk is convincing the public that Democrats are not leaving the borders open.  This will become a crisis if the Biden administration does away with Title 42 – which will lead to multiple record increases in illegal border crossing.

Republicans are clearly winning the cultural wars.  Gender obfuscation — such as former “men” winning women’s swimming championships — snowflake micro-aggression, the new list of personal pronouns, identity politics, political correctness, wokeness and the politicization of entertainment (think Disney) and sports (think NFL) are just a few of the issues that mainstream America rejects. 

In other words, the nation appears to be talking up an anyone-one-but-a-Democrat for 2022 – and potentially 2024.  The donkey Party has done it again.  Made themselves more unpopular than Trump.  All the effort that they have put into demonizing Trump and all Republicans is proving to be a monumental political miscalculation.

Then there is this.  According to the latest Harvard CAPS-Harris poll, Trump would decisively defeat Biden by six points – 47 to 41.   That must have the rabid left totally unhinged.  After all that effort to destroy both Trump and the Republican Party, and yet they appear to be the choice of the American people.

If you recall the catatonic shock the political left suffered when Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in 2016, just imagine the reaction if he should return to the Oval Office.  The vision of that prospect may be just enough to put him over the top in 2024.

However, there is a long road to 2024, but I thought a trajectory correction was warranted in view of the Democrat’s unanticipated inability to win over the American people to their radical left-wing agenda.  

So, there ‘tis.

About The Author

Larry Horist

So,there‘tis… The opinions, perspectives and analyses of Larry HoristLarry Horist is a businessman, conservative writer and political strategist with an extensive background in economics and public policy. Clients of his consulting firm have included such conservative icons as Steve Forbes and Milton Friedman. He has served as a consultant to the Nixon White House and travelled the country as a spokesman for President Reagan’s economic reforms. He has testified as an expert witness before numerous legislative bodies, including the U. S. Congress. Horist has lectured and taught courses at numerous colleges and universities, including Harvard, Northwestern, DePaul universities, Hope College and his alma mater, Knox College. He has been a guest on hundreds of public affairs talk shows, and hosted his own program, “Chicago In Sight,” on WIND radio. Horist was a one-time candidate for mayor of Chicago and served as Executive Director of the City Club of Chicago, where he led a successful two-year campaign to save the historic Chicago Theatre from the wrecking ball. An award-winning debater, his insightful and sometimes controversial commentaries appear frequently on the editorial pages of newspapers across the nation. He is praised by readers for his style, substance and sense of humor. According to one reader, Horist is the “new Charles Krauthammer.” He is actively semi-retired in Boca Raton, Florida where he devotes his time to writing. So, there ‘tis is Horist’s signature sign off.

32 Comments

  1. Ben

    Yes!!!! He must return and rescue America from communism If the democrats wanted to steal the election they should have gotten someone smarter than Biden

    • Ben

      Ah, finally, you tight ass, humorless, scarred, conspiracy theory ridden dumb fuck extreme right wing nuts finally recognize it’s April Fools’ Day. What better day to make Trump the subject of your dreams.

      Well, you were wrong before by your own admission… I guess it’s no problem for you to be wrong again… Especially with the beginning caveat that you admit you probably are… April fools!

      We will see how long his coattails are in November, but I think people are realizing that they are donating money to the cause, only for this guy to take the money with his paws, and use it in order to defend himself when breaking the laws, and live high on the hog in the highlife that he loves. Pretty sure his rally numbers are down, people are just getting tired of hearing the same old rants, relitigating the last election again, and all of the same old people he loves to eat. But, he’s always got you. He’s loyal supporters. Just another Trumpist hiding in conservative clothing.

      • Harold campbell

        So you like better having an idiot in the White House. Good for you. But us real patriots know that the democrat party is made up of low life trash. And trash must be disposed of

        • ben

          Are you saying you physically want to get rid of us, as in do us harm?

        • Harold campbell

          I didn’t say anything about harming people you idiot. Are you afraid? I think that you are. So go hide.

          • Ben

            You called us trash, and then said trash must be disposed of. You were planning to do that without harm?

            It’s an anonymous website, the concept of hiding seems to be oxymoronic. But hey, consider the source.

      • larry Horist

        Ben … thanks for you thoughtful and intelligent response — LOL. Your political Tourette’s Syndrome appears to have flared up again.

        • ben

          Says the guy who holds his nose and votes trump, and then tells us all the personality traits he doesn’t like, while he just loves the political decisions… And then tells us trump will never run again, and then tells us he will and he can’t wait to vote for him even though de santis is his guy, the guy we called death santa…the covid killer. And what, now you have a problem with my exercising free speech as you see it, you stupid little old man. After all, this is one punching bag posts, for getting the facts and calling people demeaning names hopefully using foul language when we can. Are you entertained?

          • Theodore Sueck

            No, he just pointed out in a polite way that you are a total waste of skin and air, and a complete moron.

    • D.D

      If He isn’t in jail, Every GOP member that wants to run in 24 will have no problem with throwing Trump COMPLETELY UNDER THE BUS if that’s what it takes to get him out of their way… FACE IT…. HE’S DONE!

    • David Dutra

      If He isn’t in jail, Every GOP member that wants to run in 24 will have no problem with throwing Trump COMPLETELY UNDER THE BUS if that’s what it takes to get him out of their way… FACE IT…. HE’S DONE!

      • Harold blankenship

        A great man was destroyed by commie bastards And the guy who replaced him doesn’t have enough marbles to wipe his ass

      • Ben

        Yet, he had no problem dumping Trump the chump leaving you screwed blue and not smiling. You can’t catch him; you couldn’t finish Bill, you didn’t lock Hillary up and, you never even laid a glove on Obama.

        They are all free as a bird with no investigations.

        • Larry kuhn

          No investigation? Check out hunter Biden. And didn’t Hillary’s campaign have to pony up money over the Russia lies? And guess who’s getting fucked in the midterms. People are waking up. You lefties want wokeness. As the old rap tune says “whoop there it is “!!!

          • ben

            Yes, Hillary’s campaign paid over $100K to FEC, not a crime like Don’s racism penalty in NYC or his fraud payment just before President. If she’s guilty of anything, then Don’s a fraud and a racist…… And I am pretty sure you did not lock her up for what here campaign did. Why Hunter, is he in office?

            Are they still investigating? Not that we know, unless it’s Hunter on taxes, and again, he is not in office, is he.

            How about those 7 hours of missing White House call logs? The top secret documents shuttled to Mara Loser, some shredded, some in the toilet —–> was Don planning to sell them? The Congressional subpoenas are flying, people are being referred to DOJ, the pressure is building so we will know whether a witch hunt or pay dirt BEFORE the mid term.

            But it’s so nice how easy it is for all Republicans to let Trump back in their hearts. Warms my heart to see there was good reason to keep after this grifter, our PT Barnum of politics, Captain Bone Spur, Mr. Win One for the Groper.

            Good luck in the mid terms. It will be wild. He’s such a genius.

  2. Carolinadog

    Just a few thoughts . Does anyone realize that nothing has been done to correct the voting machine rigging? All the attention is given to the ballot fraud and that too has not been legally addressed. Does anyone realize that under today’s conditions the ballot fraud, machine rigging and voting machine tampering is still in full force ? Every day more evidence of Biden’s corruption is being blatantly displayed in leftist news . Why ? They are confident that fraud can be openly committed and despite the outrage, nothing will change. America has fallen to a coup and that’s where it will stay until enough citizens rise up to stop it. The government is corrupt, the judiciary is corrupt, the political parties are corrupt, the religious establishment is corrupt and the educational system is corrupt. The media is corrupt and major corporations are corrupt. The medical system is corrupt and the military is corrupt. And yet, people think they can vote an answer to this problem. These upcoming “elections” will be just as big a farce as the 2020 coup.

  3. Ben

    Yes, the Republicans should pay for all the machines they tainted during all of the failed recounts.

    • Perry

      The democrats should be hanged for election fraud

      • ben

        Would that be like hanged until dead? Would that be ALL Democrats? Are you an advocate for lynching?

        So let me get this straight;

        we had an election, the Russians meddled on behalf of Donald J. Trump.
        Donald J. Trump asked a foreign entity, Ukraine, “I need a favor” to did up dirt on Biden, his competitor for office.
        Biden won, fair and square, the Big Lie has never been proven in any recount or the multitude of over 60 court cases
        Based on that, and your feelings, you say “The democrats should be hanged for election fraud.”
        Punching Bag Post runs with that incitement to riot sentiment to kill all Democrats, by hanging.
        Free Speech is the cornerstone of our Republic, it is our Bill of Right’s first amendment.

        Ironic ain’t it. Free Speech means PBP can support killing all Democrats by hanging. They do this a lot.

        • Perry

          I meant that the democrats that’s guilty of voter fraud should be prosecuted for treason and sentenced to pay by capital punishment. It’s lawful if applied. I didn’t say anything about lynching. But high levels of voter fraud should be a capital offense. Republicans or democrats. You are really scared shitless. Lol. And Russia interference? That’s been proven to be a damned lie. So stfu you fool. You should catch up on the news. But that requires common sense. So that leaves you out. There’s several crimes that should carry the death penalty. Like drug dealers and child molesters. But no one should be punished without due process of law. Let’s not go back to the times of democrats lynching blacks. The blood of blacks are on their hands. Just like today with liberal policies causing death to minorities in democrat ran cities. It’s funny how you post bullshit that you know are lies. You are either brainwashed or stupid enough to think that you can brainwash others

          • ben

            There was not enough evidence to link Donald J. Trump or his campaign to the Russian meddling in our elections; there is plenty of evidence, and indictments, that the Russians meddled on behalf of Donald J. Trump. They certainly did not help Biden.

            Voter Fraud is doubtful to rise to the level of being treason; you are smoking something.

            Generally, hanging an entire population, unlawfully, as you suggested, is termed as a lynching. This one, a biggun.

            Glad you clarified your mis-statements. And now you added you want to hang drug dealers. Would that include the kid selling a dime bag? Yes, Southern Democrats did some very bad and racist things. And now they are all Republicans, like you, advocating very bad things. Generally, today, all Republicans are not racist, but most overt racists vote Republican. No wonder you want to live in the past, you looked better then.

            What liberal city policy fostered by Democrats cause death in Democratic run cities (that doesn’t occur in Republican run cities? Do I hear Jeopardy music?

            Oh yeah, right back at ya, you scared shitless damned lying bullshitting brainwashed fool of a stupid Republican supporter of voter fraud that should be prosecuted for treason and sentenced to pay by capital punishment because its “It’s lawful if applied. I didn’t say anything about lynching.” Here’s who you can put on your list.

            https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2022-02-10/trump-backer-4-others-charged-with-voter-fraud-in-wisconsin

            https://www.thebulwark.com/the-pattern-of-gop-voter-fraud/

            https://sports.yahoo.com/three-republican-supporters-trump-backing-134746258.html

            https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/21/politics/fact-check-republicans-voter-fraud-kirk-hartle/index.html

            https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2021-12-14/3-voters-from-retirement-haven-charged-with-voting-fraud

            https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/florida-voters-latest-republicans-be-charged-voter-fraud-n1285993

            Almost every time someone is convicted of voter fraud, they are Republicans. You can’t catch us, you can only be caught. You can’t overturn the election by storming the Capital, you are going to jail.

            HAGD.

          • Joe Gilbertson

            So your idea is to rehash tired old democrat talking points? Once again you have missed the big picture.

          • Ben

            Joe, Reading comprehension is a dangerous thing. At least, apparently for you.

            Actually, if you look back, am just responding to recent repeats of the Republican relitigation of 2020 voter fraud where Donald Trump continues to fleece the Republican voter base for donations to help him with his Big Lie cause, which you continue to publicly state that you believe, of the 2020 voter fraud.

            Democrats are not the ones committing time and money to this. You are. You are the big lie party. You are the party of Donald Trump. Right now, Donald Trump is your 2024 candidate. With either Ron DeSantis or John F Kennedy Junior as vice president candidate..

  4. Perry

    It’s true that the election won’t be overturned. I knew that from day one. The courts didn’t even look at the large amounts of evidence that was collected. I guess that the bribery and threats from the deep state really works. But know this. We have our own deep state and fucking democrats will never govern us. We are the resistance. Just like killery stated when trump won. She said that she was going to be part of the resistance. Lol. By the way, only one in five democrats would support that cunt for president

  5. Ben

    How many women in your life do you call cunt?

    • Perry

      Very few. But killery qualifies

      • Eric

        Ben is scared shitless of Trump being re-elected. Wow!!!! Just imagine how much greater America would be. And the January 6 patriots being pardoned. It couldn’t get any better than that. That’s why dumbass Biden is trying to sic his gestapo government thugs on him.

        • ben

          Yeah, cuz everyone should ransack the halls of Congress, piss on the walls, steal confidential information, engage in seditious acts and be called patriots deserving of pardons. Biden isn’t doing anything to Turnip. It’s the House, DOJ, and various States the Don needs to be worried about.

          You guy admire Putin and think he’s a genius. At least your orange haired leader does.

          Me scared? What? Of a bunch of genius’ that stormed Congress to get their way because they couldn’t beat em at the ballot box? It’s dumbfucks like Eric who do that and then post the selfies on the internet. How many of them now blame Trump, on the record, under perjury penalties, in a court of law? Lots of them. And the Don does nothing…….

          Yeah, we probably should lose the midterms. You did, big time, with the orangutang. But then again, only you guys can so masterfully screw the pooch that there is still hope. I mean you lost to Biden, how the ##$# did that happen. Best economy ever. Lowest black unemployment ever. Even Hispanics voted for Turnip. You Made America Great Again. And they you fuckers screwed up a wet dream.

          • Clifford mckinney

            No, you assholes cheated. Don’t try it again

          • Jimmy

            Screw the pooch? Leave your mama out of it

      • ben

        So, you have a handful of people you call cunts. Inspiring.

        • Perry

          They are all democrats