
<p>Just a few months ago, the idea that Biden could lose a significant percent of the Black and Hispanic vote seemed absurd. ; The two largest minority populations in America have been the core of the Democrat’s base since the 1930s. ; For a Republican to get more than 10 percent of the Black vote or 20 percent of the Hispanic vote would be considered an anomaly.</p>



<p>According to recent polls, President Trump is getting in excess of 20 percent of the Black vote and almost half of the Hispanic vote. ; If these numbers presage the vote in November, Trump will win handily.</p>



<p>What is mindboggling is the speed of the shift. According to a <em>New York Times</em> poll, Biden is getting 63 percent of the Black vote – down from 91 percent in the 2020 election. Conversely, Trump has gone up from his 8 percent in 2020 to a current 23 percent.</p>



<p>In December of 2023, FOX News reported Hispanic polling numbers that gave Biden 61 percent to Trump’s 31 percent in a head-to-head comparison. ; In March of 2024, with Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. factored in, Biden’s numbers plunge to 31 percent. ; Trump moves up to 41 percent, with RFK, Jr. taking 18 percent. ; While there is legitimate debate as to which candidate RFK, Jr. hurts more overall, it seems clear he takes more from Biden among minorities. ; Trump’s Hispanic numbers actually improved with RFK, Jr. in the race.</p>



<p>The exodus of Blacks and Hispanics from the Democratic Party is most dramatic among younger voters – a trend that is also found among younger White voters.</p>



<p>CNN’s numbers guru, Harry Enten, reported the latest numbers with shock – and perhaps dismay. &#8220;I&#8217;ve just never seen anything like this. I&#8217;m, like, speechless&#8230; We are looking at a historic moment right now where Black voters under the age of 50, who have historically been such a big part of the Democratic coalition, are leaving it in droves.&#8221;</p>



<p> According to Enten, at this time in 2020, Biden was at 80 percent with Blacks under 50. Today he holds less than half that amount at 37 percent. “I&#8217;ve just never seen anything like this. I&#8217;m, like, speechless.” Enten said, shaking his head.</p>



<p>In the survey, Biden also drops among Blacks over 50, but not as much. He went from 83 percent at this time in 2020 to the current 74 percent. That is still a significant 9-point drop. It would be big news, itself, if it were not for the unprecedented shift in the under-50 Black vote.</p>



<p>Those disillusioned by the numbers fall back on the usual rationalizations. ; Enten’s polling numbers are an outlier, they say. ; They do not reflect reality. ; And if you do not buy into that spin, they will tell you that there is a lot of time between now and the start of the 2024 voting. ; With early voting, that is only three months. ; By the real election DAY, most voters will have already cast their ballots.</p>



<p>The numbers are so dramatic that they invite a bit of skepticism. But even if they are off by half, the reality is foreboding for Biden. ; The head-scratching question is &#8230; why? ; Some speculate that it is because inflation, interest rates and gas prices hit low-income minorities the hardest. ; Others point to generations of unkept promises and <em>de facto</em> institutional racism in the major Democrat cities that have left millions of Blacks segregated, impoverished and oppressed.</p>



<p>Whatever the reason, the numbers explain why the Biden campaign is focusing on Black and Hispanic voters these days. ; It has become almost a full-time job. ; If they do not change these numbers, it is game over for Team Biden. So, there ‘tis.</p>

Blacks and Hispanics slipping away from Biden
