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Blacks and Hispanics slipping away from Biden

Blacks and Hispanics slipping away from Biden

Just a few months ago, the idea that Biden could lose a significant percent of the Black and Hispanic vote seemed absurd.  The two largest minority populations in America have been the core of the Democrat’s base since the 1930s.  For a Republican to get more than 10 percent of the Black vote or 20 percent of the Hispanic vote would be considered an anomaly.

According to recent polls, President Trump is getting in excess of 20 percent of the Black vote and almost half of the Hispanic vote.  If these numbers presage the vote in November, Trump will win handily.

What is mindboggling is the speed of the shift.  According to a New York Times poll, Biden is getting 63 percent of the Black vote – down from 91 percent in the 2020 election.  Conversely, Trump has gone up from his 8 percent in 2020 to a current 23 percent.

In December of 2023, FOX News reported Hispanic polling numbers that gave Biden 61 percent to Trump’s 31 percent in a head-to-head comparison.  In March of 2024, with Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. factored in, Biden’s numbers plunge to 31 percent.  Trump moves up to 41 percent, with RFK, Jr. taking 18 percent.  While there is legitimate debate as to which candidate RFK, Jr. hurts more overall, it seems clear he takes more from Biden among minorities.  Trump’s Hispanic numbers actually improved with RFK, Jr. in the race.

The exodus of Blacks and Hispanics from the Democratic Party is most dramatic among younger voters – a trend that is also found among younger White voters.

CNN’s numbers guru, Harry Enten, reported the latest numbers with shock – and perhaps dismay. “I’ve just never seen anything like this. I’m, like, speechless… We are looking at a historic moment right now where Black voters under the age of 50, who have historically been such a big part of the Democratic coalition, are leaving it in droves.”

 According to Enten, at this time in 2020, Biden was at 80 percent with Blacks under 50.  Today he holds less than half that amount at 37 percent.  “I’ve just never seen anything like this. I’m, like, speechless.” Enten said, shaking his head.

In the survey, Biden also drops among Blacks over 50, but not as much.  He went from 83 percent at this time in 2020 to the current 74 percent.  That is still a significant 9-point drop. It would be big news, itself, if it were not for the unprecedented shift in the under-50 Black vote.

Those disillusioned by the numbers fall back on the usual rationalizations.  Enten’s polling numbers are an outlier, they say.  They do not reflect reality.  And if you do not buy into that spin, they will tell you that there is a lot of time between now and the start of the 2024 voting.  With early voting, that is only three months.  By the real election DAY, most voters will have already cast their ballots.

The numbers are so dramatic that they invite a bit of skepticism. But even if they are off by half, the reality is foreboding for Biden.  The head-scratching question is … why?  Some speculate that it is because inflation, interest rates and gas prices hit low-income minorities the hardest.  Others point to generations of unkept promises and de facto institutional racism in the major Democrat cities that have left millions of Blacks segregated, impoverished and oppressed.

Whatever the reason, the numbers explain why the Biden campaign is focusing on Black and Hispanic voters these days.  It has become almost a full-time job.  If they do not change these numbers, it is game over for Team Biden. So, there ‘tis.

About The Author

Larry Horist

So,there‘tis… The opinions, perspectives and analyses of Larry Horist Larry Horist is a businessman, conservative writer and political strategist with an extensive background in economics and public policy. Clients of his consulting firm have included such conservative icons as Steve Forbes and Milton Friedman. He has served as a consultant to the Nixon White House and travelled the country as a spokesman for President Reagan’s economic reforms. He has testified as an expert witness before numerous legislative bodies, including the U. S. Congress. Horist has lectured and taught courses at numerous colleges and universities, including Harvard, Northwestern, DePaul universities, Hope College and his alma mater, Knox College. He has been a guest on hundreds of public affairs talk shows, and hosted his own program, “Chicago In Sight,” on WIND radio. Horist was a one-time candidate for mayor of Chicago and served as Executive Director of the City Club of Chicago, where he led a successful two-year campaign to save the historic Chicago Theatre from the wrecking ball. An award-winning debater, his insightful and sometimes controversial commentaries appear frequently on the editorial pages of newspapers across the nation. He is praised by readers for his style, substance and sense of humor. According to one reader, Horist is the “new Charles Krauthammer.” He is actively semi-retired in Boca Raton, Florida where he devotes his time to writing. So, there ‘tis is Horist’s signature sign off.

15 Comments

  1. frank stetson

    And yet FOX puts Biden ahead of Trump for the first time in this cycle.

    Bottom line: close, like last time, and next weeks debate with polls in July will be more telling.

    Still too early, surprised Horist did not CYA himself with that, but next week will move the dial a bit one direction or another.

    That’s right, Joe versus Don. The demented versus the dictator. Gonna be a barn burner.

    Reply
    • Tom

      Exactly Frank! An entire article devoted to one poll and a shitload of wishful thought. I did my own poll of black people I know. They all are voting for Biden. They absolutely hate Trump.

      “The poll shows Trump remains deeply unpopular with African American voters, who indicate they still favor Biden and will opt for third party candidates like Cornel West or Robert F. Kennedy Jr. before casting their ballot for the former president.

      Again and again, in this poll and others, the majority of Black voters say they may not be in love with Biden but, as Kevin Hill, 46, of Oakland, California, put it, “What’s the alternative? Trump?”” For more, see *https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/06/16/black-voters-biden-trump-poll/73671017007/*

      I think things are about to change very soon, starting with the debate next week. It should be interesting. When people learn of Trump’s economic proposal to eliminate federal income tax and go to all tariffs, and they read what happened in the 1930’s when POTUS Hoover signed the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, and they see how that was the worst thing for the economy and kept us in the depression for more years than necessary, they will see how stupid Trump really is. Trump is actually well on his way to designing the destruction of the USA.

      Reply
      • larry Horist

        Tom … You really are struggling with reading comprehension. You write: “An entire article devoted to one poll and a shitload of wishful thought.” I cited THREE polls in the commentary — and there are others I could have. The shift of Blacks to Trump is well documented across the polling. The only debate is how big the shift may be. And should you know asking friends is not the big picture survey. And did you really ask all four of them?

        Reply
      • larry Horist

        Tom …I checked out your USAToday poll. You cannot read polls either. The poll you cite shows Trump gaining Black support over 2020. Specifically: “Trump is polling somewhat higher than the 2020 exit polls, with about 15% in Michigan saying they’ll support him and 11% in Pennsylvania, compared to single-digits in the last election.” The only controversy is how much support he is gaining. I would say YOU are grasping at straws and working on wishful thinking — and your obsessive desire to be the counterpoint to anything I write. Makes you sound uninformed and ignorant.

        Reply
        • Tom

          1) Larry, apparently you do not know how to read. I merely quoted what a USA article said about the poll. The article cited the poll, not me!! You seem to have missed the quotation marks – a sign of aging eyesight!

          2) I never claimed to have examined the poll itself. Seems like you are the one that has the comprehension problems dear friend!!! Please re-read what I wrote, and read it accurately this time! You should see that I never said I read the poll.

          3) I have many more black friends that your childish snide comment suggests. Nice to see you can still be your immature ole self ole Larry son!!! Additionally, they had a black panel randomly picked on CBS recently. None of the panel was voting for Trump. And again, the aggregate according to your beloved FOX has Biden ahead by two points which you conveniently do not mention. Like FOX, you pick and choose only those facts that make Trump look good and seemingly surging. In the past three months, Biden has caught up to and surpassed Trump – this is the real surge that you ignore. So please do not expect me as an Independent to get excited about the polls you look at.

          4) Remember Larry, I am merely presenting the facts you do not state which makes you a more conscientious, thoughtful, and accountable writer the next time because you know I am coming behind you to complete the story you spin. I can see the improvement in you since I started my rating system. Keep up the good work!!! And keep working to omit the nasty judgemental words and names you like to call others – they are low IQ indicators and diminish your opinions to where you look like a literary troll.

          5) BTW, I noticed you did not make a comment on Trump’s new tax plan and the information I gave on the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act. Why not? Would Trump have looked uniformed and ignorant in your comments?

          6) Lastly, I do not grasp at straws – this is one of the advantages of being an independent. I am merely interested in the FULL truth that extends well beyond Larry’s cherry picked facts. By the way, have you noticed that you only got two responses to your article -and they were from the people you cast aspersions on the most!! LOL

          Reply
          • larry Horist

            Tom … Your brain is either not processing well or you have surrendered to bs in your responses. You previously sarcastically stated that I relied on a single poll, when it was clearly stated in my commentary that I was reporting on three polls. You either misread, did not comprehend what you read, or suffered a short term memory loss. But for whatever reason your allegation was 100 percent wrong.

            With regard to your first point, you are factually wrong and you assume erroneously. You error is based on a sin of omission. You rebut my point that Blacks are moving to Trump and use quotes from an article about a USA Today poll as you evidence. But you do not quote fully. Because that same article you pointed to had the very quote I sent back, confirming that Blacks are shifting to Trump. Again you did not read or comprehend what was said in your own example. And your assumption that I got my information from a deeper dive into the poll is … also wrong. It was from the very article YOU presented and referenced — and misunderstood. in other words, YOU have misread or misunderstood what you read … repeatedly. In view of that, you should not be so cavalier in trying to insult me solely on my age. At least I can still read and comprehend ..and write.

            Your constant self-praising claim of always presenting the facts I increasingly laughable. You spin like a Dervish on facts you do not fully comprehend. And your incessant personal attacks and intolerable arrogance further eradicates whatever scholarship you have left.

          • frank stetson

            You gents keep screaming past each other and all I can say is: I don’t appreciate your tone. Ho, ho, ho.

            Just to give you some more cannon fodder, the NYT’s is now running daily polling updates. So here comes the NYT’s review.

            Today’s shows a national polling average as a photo finish tie for Biden and Trump meaning Biden has improved. They blame the SoTU, Felony Convictions, everything you expect. In the swing states, Trump has the edge yet a number of states are in the margin of error leads. And if Biden just squeaks a few of the races tied in the margin of error, he wins.

            The Times indicates that polls in general are not as rigorous as the past, too expensive. Plus the polls don’t factor the undecided, don’t forecast for them. There are a lot of polls out there. Especially when any kid can knock off an online poll, less accuracy, in a dash for far less cash. This is worse as you step off the national stage and look for State data. I think the part about pollsters not investing in expensive qualitative efforts says a lot.

            Bottom line: the debates will not be game changers, but I contend they will change the game. I expect really high ratings from lots of eyes and ears. And, unless a gaff or misstep, the more Biden speaks, the better off he is, and the more Trump speaks, the better of Biden is too. I believe many Americans have checked out from politics, especially from the left and legacy Republicans (versus Trumplicants like Horist).

            Biden has the border to contend with; Trump has abortion, both albatrosses that matter. Trump’s felony does matter outside the Trumplicant sphere of propaganda. His reluctance to go to court does matter. But they are not on display and Biden will need to tease them out, Biden’s demeaner and possible dementia do matter and will be on display. His delivery is important.

            As far as debates go, this one has more importance to the things outside the debate than perhaps the actual questions being asked. No matter what, I expect the polls to change mid July. Next debate I think is September….. not sure why Biden has agreed to almost a three month gap.

  2. frank stetson

    Remember all those jobs he got and lost.

    Remember all those factories announced that never happened.

    Remember bringing back coal.

    Remember oil independence due to people afraid to travel in public.

    Remember if you were better off four years ago when you were hiding in your house trying to figure out how to get some toilet paper under Trump’s reign. I just finished my Trump-era product shortage stockpile of hand sanitizer in early 2022. Ah, those Trumpian memories.

    I wonder if he will batch pardon the 1.6.2021 Capitol assaulters or follow the Horist method of one by one, one at a time. Everyone except Horist knows the answer to that and Republicans no doubt do not follow Horist’s lead on that one.

    Reply
    • TOM

      Honestly Frank, I do not think anyone follows the Horist model on much of anything. If you ever read the article/bio written by James Merriner in the Chicago Tribune about him, you would know why! See *https://chicagoreader.com/news-politics/does-larry-horist-matter/* The article is titled, “Does Larry Horist Matter?” Its a fun read!!! But I must give Larry credit where it is due, he keeps on slugging. He reminds me of the old Phillies manager Gene Mauch. Nobody followed his management style either!

      Yes I remember the Trump days!! There were too many of them!!! While I liked the free money, we are now paying for it. I remember the TP Wars!! And who could forget “drink bleach and put a UV light down their throat!” And if you want to knock Biden for slow to respond, Xi called Trump on December 28th. Trump did not engage until just about March – and then it was drink bleach! And who can forget those tax cuts which seem to not affect me but gave corporations a big gift yet we ne’er saw any price cuts! And who could forget Trump’s “clean coal” talk. John Oliver did a fun video piece on this for HBO which you can watch and laugh at *https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EGbZ84PqHgI* – its good for a giggle or two!

      Yeah those folks that never got their factory in Ohio sure do remember!

      And how about that wall that Mexico was paying for!! I think we are still awaiting payment but the previous leader of Mexico just laughed at the idea and said hell no!

      Oh and lets not forget the two Trump wars: 1) Trade war on China that we lost. 2) Shitty USA – Taliban withdrawal agreement that did not include the leadership of Afghanistan! 3) And while it was not a war, denying Ukraine armaments aid already approved and budgeted by Congress!!

      And who can forget the “Repeal and Replace” of The Affordable Care Act (ACA) that never happened! It was going to be so great!!

      And lets not forget how he pulled us out of the Pacific Rim Agreement which opened the door for China’s rise in influence in the Pacific!

      But this Trump in 2024 is much improved and comes with a personalized bible. He even got an endorsement from Jesus Christ!!!

      And now you can buy a Trump-head US flag and a flag pin!!! Both showing the head of our former beloved leader!

      AHHHHHH!!! AS ARCHIE BUNKER WOULD SAY, “THOSE WERE THE DAYS!!!”

      Reply
      • larry Horist

        Tom … You are soooo funny in your rants. First of all, I have many more followers and fans than you could hope to have. So, what is that garbage about no one follows my model. You just talk ignorant crap and believe they are pearls of wisdom. LOL You really do fit the definition of an old fool. I was happy to see you draw attention to the Reader article. I know you and Frank see it as some sort of criticism or attack — and refer to it as a weapon BUT …. I love that article. It was written by a very close friend — and I had the opportunity to approve it before it was submitted. It is a long bio that is overwhelmingly complimentary. I hope your putting up the link will get more folks reading it. I think I should add that to my online bio. So, old man, you try to wound me with something I see as a positive article. I am not sure if you read it all or just did not comprehend what was written. It is a long article, so maybe you forgot what you read. At any rate, thanks for promoting it even if you intentions were malicious.

        Reply
        • Tom

          Dear Larry, I am not trying to wound you. Simply exposing the truth. But as usual, you do not like the full truth and take it as an attack, just like Trump! I posted the link so people could read both sides of you! That is a fair and balanced thing to do, it is not an attack to be balanced!!! Your comment that you were glad I posted the article because you love it betrays your other comment that I was intending it as a weapon. This to me would be the definition of an old fool.

          Regarding your model which most likely aligns with Project 25, is deeply flawed, and the article shows this by how many ditched your consultancy or did not hire you, and your bouncing around from job to job.

          Truth is, sometimes people with big followings have lots of comments to their articles, you do not have this. Sometimes Frank and I are the only commenters!!! Where are all of those followers? Frank, you, and me are the only responders on this article!! You are a legend in your own mind!!!

          Again, you cannot have an intelligent discussion without dragging Frank into it to achieve some perceived sense of legitimacy of your positions!!! GET A BACKBONE!!!

          You say you loved the article. Then here are twelve uncomplimentary and negative comments in the article that you love that you must agree with, since you loved the article:

          1) ” He’s like the kid on your block who was always getting into fights but always swore he never threw the first punch. ” was not complimentary! IF you think its complimentary, you have a mental problem like bullyism.

          2) “Conservative personalities who stayed away included attorney Joe Morris, the 1994 GOP nominee for Cook County Board president; businessman Steve Baer, who challenged Edgar in the 1990 primary; and industrialist Jack Roeser, who did likewise in 1994. They’re among the critics who see Horist as a showboater, a media freak, and a backstabber.” Not a compliment! It says you have some serious personality flaws. Which by the way, you show here.

          3) “Critics accuse him of selling out the United Republican Fund–an independent conservative group–and running it into the ground. They accuse him of double-crossing mayoral candidate Nino Noriega. VERY TRUMPIAN ALL THE WAY BACK THEN! THIS SAYS YOU CANNOT BE TRUSTED!!!

          4) The Sun-Times’s Steve Neal has called Horist a “loose cannon” with questionable ethics and a “grand sense of…self-importance.” The Tribune’s Tom Hardy used to deride him as “Uncle Larry,” a cranky ideologue. ” WOW, HE NAILED IT, “A CRANKY IDIOLOGUE!!” “GRAND SENSE OF SELF IMPORTANCE!!! Spot on with these!!! This is what I see a lot in your article.

          5) ” He says he learned early in life to question authority, to challenge stereotypes, and to prize honesty–personal and intellectual.” WOW HOW YOU HAVE STRAYED FROM YOUR ROOTS! Now you primarily engage in lies by omission, and lies by spin.

          6) ” Larry is he’s always candid about the fact that he has biases.” WOW! Seems like you object to my rating system and comments because I expose your biases! THIS SAYS YOUR ARTICLES ARE NOT HONEST NOR BALANCED!!!

          7) ““I don’t believe he knew about the nature of the account. He simply trusted the wrong people.” ” YOU ARE STILL DOING THIS!

          8) The article details several incidents of Horist selling out others that trusted him and a history of bouncing from job to job with several resignations, and at least one failed business adventure involving the collection of dog poop. LOL

          9) “Yet two ranking Republicans asked not to be quoted by name when they discussed him because Horist is, as one put it, a “vicious” and “vindictive” sort who keeps “Nixon-type files” on people.” WOW!!! YOU SHOW THIS WITH MANY OF YOUR COMMENTS WHEN THE COMMENT DOES NOT AGREE WITH YOU!!! DOES FRANK COME TO MIND?

          10) “Horist says he has given up partisan politics. ” WOW!! WHAT A LIE!!!

          11) ” “I divide people into crustaceans and vertebrates. Crustaceans are insecure, just shell. They depend on outside adulation to give them support and stand them up. Whereas vertebrates have their own backbone of values. ” WOW!!! THIS SHOWS INTOLERANCE – NOT A COMPLIMENTARY ADMISSION !!!

          12) ” There are people who you might as well kick in the balls as to say such a thing.” MORE INTOLERANCE!!! YEAH DON’T LISTEN OR NEGOTIATE, JUST KICK THEM IN THE BALLS!!!

          Reply
          • larry Horist

            Tom … LMAO You are coming across as an old bitter man with a personal animosity. You are not a TRUTH teller , as you fancy yourself. You have made me your hobby — and yes, like Frank. Did you miss what I said about the author being a close friend and that I had to approve the article before it was published? And as an accomplished liar, you selected portions of the very long article without including the the comments that rebutted the claims of political enemies. And you spin, spin, spin, And of course, you completely drop all the more positive portions of the 10,000 word articles. It was actually quite flattering… but you are not interested in the facts and the truth. You are just a pathetic old geezer getting your jollies by pretending to have relevancy. I could rebut each of your points in detail, but I am only willing to waste a small amount of time responding to you — especially in an old commentary that no one is reading any more. I prefer to leave the intellectual masturbation to you. If anyone should read you bs and want the truth, I recommend reading the article. They can see how badly you read, understand … or how dishonestly you report.

        • frank stetson

          Once again the Horist reprising his pugnacious prick role backhands the Stetson as he attempt to bitch slap Tom over his indignations or thin skin, you be the judge. I just don’t know why he has to drag me into his scraps with others and truly wish he would discuss stuff as a man, face-to-screen, not as a mendacious moron behind my back.

          Horist/Gilbertson, probably for self preservation benefits, have shit for a search engine here, so basically, the past is gone. I cannot check my exact wording on this. But I am pretty sure Horist, like Trump, is crying in hs beer playing the victim once again for effect. I would believe him but Horist, like Trump, lets his thin skin cloud his memory for accuracy quite often as the perceived transgressions against him get more embellished with his hyperbole over time. It’s his obsession.

          No, I did not see this article as an attack, and certainly don’t see your legendary loss to Spanky the Clown in your single ill-fated attempt to get Republicans to like you as an attack or criticism. Freakin hilarious is more like it.

          Also, I pulled a portion of this: “For a full quarter century Horist has been popping up in local controversies, tossing off ideas and marching orders with equal ease, all the while proclaiming his own rectitude. He’s like the kid on your block who was always getting into fights but always swore he never threw the first punch” highlighting the “kid on your block who was always getting into fights but always swore he never threw the first punch.” Even way back then, aspirations to accension to his lofty status as pugnacious prick.

          If you found that passage “overwhelmingly complimentary” I have no problem believing that’s what you think.

          You have mentioned your friend a number of times before sort of like Trump mentions his brilliant Uncle from MIT as if that makes him look smarter. The puff piece makes it pretty obvious there was a high level of collaboration to the point you mention review rights, which I suspect means you wrote some of it. It’s boring, that’s for sure. Not the subject matter, but the length. Oh, the length. Makes The New Yorker look abridged.

          OK, Larry, once again, here’s the deal. Stop back handing me, stop the ad hominem attacks. Try to stick tot he issues, feel free to drift, but don’t get personal.

          I will try to do the same, FOR YOU, not others, and IF you see me out of line —- note it. I will apologize and correct going forward.

          OR let’s continue the fun fest of personal attacks and since you like the news so much, next I can go into the life of Larry via the news. Let”s see —– hmmm, likes to brings kids home from broken homes. Foster dad or perv, you be the judge. That’s thin but juicy. Acrimonious long divorce — oh yeah, and there’s not even any money….(I betcha). Early pictures showing a whiter Horist — Michael Jackson syndrome perhaps? Lobbyist for the Chinese does not make resume, nor big tobacco. Wife gets fired. I really don’t, and have not, gone to any of these places, all in the public record. I would rather not, but don’t like being backhanded, slammed, and nudged either. It’s a choice, Mr. Horist.

          Starting now, make a choice and either way, let the fun begin!!!!

          Here’s a funny: we have different thoughts on policy, programs and politics, but I too started as a consultant like you working in a shop with a name allowing us to basically do anything and not change the name. I worked for the man, I did not own it like you. You are an entrepreneur, I am a hired gun. You did politics, I did phones. We both self-aggrandized ourselves via resumes targeting customers for more work. We both worked as big fish in small ponds —- not exactly McKenzie level consulting. You did politics and people, I did phones and product. Then you tried to run, and I ran to become the guy running the product business within a HUGE business. There’s more similarity than difference there. Pretty funny.

          I hope you make the right choice. I tire of the personal stuff.

          Reply
          • Tom

            Again Larry, you go to your old playbook of not addressing what was actually written nor discussing any questions. You just attempt to insult. Judging by the insults you whirled at me with no back up facts, I think Frank is correct – you are a bit thin skinned. And I did like the intellectual masterbation line – no doubt about it my comments just came in your mouth ole Larry son!!

            What is most amusing is the number of times I have caught you using a snippet of a much larger article or video or poll, and using it to spin and lie about Biden – yet when I take twelve lines that YOU APPROVED out of your article and ask you about how you feel about them, you get all i-rate and hissy fitted to the max. I bet you had to change your Depends after I pointed out those twelve negatives that YOU APPROVED!!! LOL

            Larry do you remember taking 17 seconds out of an 8:57 second video about Biden visiting a black single father in Raleigh which was bad enough, but then you added what you thought was an amusing comment about chicken and watermelon????

            Maybe ole Larry son needs to listen to the advice he gives ole Tom son, and stop taking snippets and spinning tales of your opponents. This is precisely why I rate each of your articles. And I can tell it is hitting home and making you a better writer!!!

            Well we will have more fun in other articles as you lie and spin your way through life!

  3. frank stetson

    I think you being a bit harsh about lying and spinning through life. Spinning maybe, but that can be a legitimate form of discourse. But I honestly don’t think him a perennial liar.

    I just hope he chooses to chillax, make the choice against the personal attack, and if he feels maligned, be specific as to the reason so there can be response. Hopeful, trusting, but will verify :>)

    Reply

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