In the 2016 presidential election, Trump won because the electorate disliked Hillary Clinton more than they disliked him. In 2020, Biden won because the electorate disliked him less than they disliked Trump.
Heading into the 2024 presidential contest, there is a possibility that the two major parties will nominate candidates widely disliked by the General Election voters. Yes, each has a significant base in their respective parties, but overall, the American voters would prefer that they both drop out. That is the overwhelming opinion expressed in the polls.
There is something decidedly wrong with a political system that puts up candidates that the people do not like or want. That is the definition of a broken system.
Biden has a particularly vexing problem. At least Trump is popular with his base. They want him to run and be returned to the White House. That is not the case for Biden.
Biden’s overall favorable rating lingers in the mid to low 40 percentiles. That alone is a huge red flag. But that is not the worst news for Biden and the Democrats.
According to a recent CBS Poll, an astounding 86 percent of Democratic voters believe Biden should not run because of his age. On the flip side, the Poll shows that 77 percent of Democrat voters want “someone new,” ‘’ and 59 percent have a specific like for someone other than Biden. And those are the Democrat voter numbers.
Biden’s best number in the Poll may be the most ominous. It showed that only 46 percent of Democrat voters believe Biden should not run because of his performance in office. That means most Democrat voters see his performance – his record – as a positive in terms of running.
But wait!
His performance is his high card. Biden and his Democrat colleagues have been hitting hard on his record of accomplishments. According to the messaging, when voters understand what he has accomplished, they will support him at the ballot box.
But the CBS Poll number indicates that after months and months of pumping his “accomplishments” – with the help of a crony media – almost half of Democrat voters do not believe that his performance earns re-election.
If two years of bragging about accomplishments in the most hyperbolic terms have not convinced half of Democrat voters of his worthiness to run, that message is dead as a winning strategy in the General Election. Personally, I believe it is not working because what he delivered is not as grand and wonderful as they claim. It is a bit of snake oil salesmanship – and voters apparently are not buying it.
According to an ABC News-Washington Post Poll, forty percent of Americans feel that they are financially worse off since Biden assumed the presidency. That is the highest number dating back 37 years.
That leaves Biden with a one-note strategy. The hope is that the voters dislike Trump – if he is the GOP standard bearer – more than Biden. And that is by far not a guaranteed winning strategy. What if it is not Trump? What if it is a younger … more vital … more articulate Republican candidate? What happens if the contest is NOT based on which candidate the voters dislike the least?
We probably know the answer to that. We find it in the trashing of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis by Democrats and leftwing media. They need to make any other potential Republican candidate as disliked as they perceive Trump to be.
That is because their chances of having voters see the second run by Biden in a positive light is extremely unlikely. That 86 percent of Democrats who believe Biden is too old to run in 2024 are not likely to change their mind as he gets older and has more gaffes and senior moments. If they cannot make Biden more appealing, they need to tear down the competition. They obviously see that as an easier challenge with Trump than any other candidate.
I suspect that the smart folks around Biden understand that if their opponent is not Trump, they are in deep trouble – meaning they would probably lose the election.
POSTSCRIPT: There is another number that should have Biden worried. Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. entered the race with a respectable 14 percent support among Democrats. A damn good number for a supposedly fringe gadfly candidate. And that number has gone up to 19 percent. One can only wonder what West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin’s number would be if he entered the race.
So, there ‘tis.