
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">This was the first debate between Biden and Trump, June 27, 2024, much anticipated for various reasons. My technique, as has been in the past, is not to argue the issues, but rather to predict the influence of the debate on the polls and ultimately the election.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The first thing of note is the structure of the debate, which was being moderated by CNN. They clearly made an effort to take away some of the advantages of the more dynamic Donald Trump. There was no audience, so those reactions will not be present. Their microphones will be turned off when CNN decides they should not speak. Also, the media had “fact checkers” who were supposed to be checking facts in real time during the debate (didn&#8217;t see them on the channel I was watching). ;</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">But no matter, it did not affect Trump much. It did seem that the moderators supported Biden a bit, but this could be in my head, and frankly, there was not a lot of opportunity to do so.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Let’s be real. ; If you were to take a transcript of the debate (correcting Joe’s stuttering speech into the talking points he was supposed to be using), no one on either side would be persuaded. I thought Trump carried the day by far, but Democrats are not going to agree with that. But&#8230;</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Trump won. ;</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Biden’s appearance was actually shocking.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">He looked like a zombie, talked in a near monotone, too fast, stuttering, and not moving his head. ; When he was not speaking he looked like a deer in the headlights, eyes staring into space and mouth open. ;</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">He had various “outbursts,” clearly well rehearsed to express emotion and utterly awkward. Several times his speech trailed off and in one instance he went silent and was rescued by the moderator.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Biden’s strategy of calling Trump a liar at every opportunity became obvious after a few rounds (and was forewarned by his campaign staff), and he had clearly rehearsed many ways. It may have been effective to start, but got old fast (I’m sure Democrats didn’t notice…).</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">For anyone who is on the fence, Biden looked old, feeble and frankly ready to fall over. His voice was not strong, his speech was stuttering and unsure, and he often became confused and scrambled his sentences. One could easily surmise that Biden is not competent and he no longer has the faculties to be President. He cannot prosecute a war, he should not be in charge of the nuclear codes, he no longer has a grasp of complex issues.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Trump on the other hand was typical Trump, albeit more sedate than usual. ; His rhetoric was strong, he spoke well, he was engaged and intelligent. ;</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The conservative and social media will talk about this, publish clips and likely make a mockery of Biden’s performance. The mainstream liberal media will rebut those clips, giving them an even wider press.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">This was exactly the result Republicans were hoping for, the contrast they were hoping for and the reason that Trump agreed to a debate so skewed against him.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">I predict the polls will shift a couple of points toward Trump. This shift will persist at least until the next debate or next propaganda event.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Change my mind (or just wait and prove me wrong…).</p>

Biden vs Trump 2024 – Who won the first debate?
