Biden trumps Trump on Ukraine …and Trump needs to man up

As his presidency comes to a close, President Biden has made at least one significant decision regarding Ukraine – and it was a good one, even if late, as usual.

Biden has lifted the limitation on the use of American long range weapons.  Up to this point, the Ukrainians could not use them to attack Putin’s military installations inside Mother Russia.  Ukrainian President Zelenskyy can now use any of the weapons in his arsenal to attack wherever necessary at any time.  Theoretically, he could attack the Kremlin. 

This has been long overdue thanks to Biden’s too little/too late policies.  Biden has gravely erred in not doing more to stop Putin from invading in the first place.  By assuring the Madman of Moscow that America would not put boots on the ground … would not provide jet fighters … and would not invoke a no-fly zone … Biden laid out a welcome mat across Ukraine for Putin. 

Biden threatened Putin with maximum sanctions if he invaded.  Putin did and Biden responded with ineffective minimal sanctions – piddling out more as the war went on.

Biden’s too little/too late policy is largely the reason the war has been dragging on.  He was motivated more by a fear of escalation than a plan for victory.  Biden got cowed by Putin’s rattling the nuclear saber.

Referring to Biden’s approach to the Ukrainian war as too little/too late is not a term of my invention.  It is the opinion of a number of retired generals, including Wesley Clark, former Supreme Commander of NATO.   He used it in a recent CNN interview.  Clark pointed out that Biden was against sending F16 fighter jets until he wasn’t … against sending the Abrams tanks until he wasn’t … against long range weapons until he wasn’t … and now against attacking inside Russia until he wasn’t.  The same terms were used by former Trump National Security Advisor John Bolton – and for the same reasons.

All of Biden’s eventual decisions to escalate prove one thing – that the nuclear threat was a bluff.  I have occasionally written that even if we did not put boots on the ground, the United States should have been all in terms of support for Ukraine.  In fact, I believe that a creditable threat of getting his ass kicked by NATO, the European Union and America’s Asian allies would have prevented Putin from invading Ukraine – and even gotten him booted completely out of Ukraine.  Unfortunately, America was being led by Neville Chamberlain when we needed a Ronald Reagan.

The more than two-year standoff that Biden created has allowed Putin to reassemble … increasing his missile and drone attacks on Ukraine … inch forward in eastern Ukraine … and recruit North Korean fighters.  General Clark said that Biden bungled the initial attack – and that he was holding back for a diplomatic solution rather than seeking a military victory.

In response to Biden’s policy shift, the Kremlin is again rattling the nuclear saber and suggesting that any Ukrainian attacks deep inside Russia could bring NATO into direct confrontation with Russia. Right!  That is the last thing Putin needs.

But Biden will not be in charge much longer.  It is President Trump who will be managing the Ukraine War from the American perspective – that that has Zelenskyy (and me) a bit concerned.  If Biden’s policy was to allow the war to drift slowly into a diplomatic solution, Trump seems determined to force the diplomatic solution immediately.  Neither is good for Ukraine.

The only diplomatic solutions that seem currently possible all require Ukrainian forces to withdraw from the regions of Russia that they currently control … cede the Crimea and eastern Ukraine to Putin … create a path for Ukraine to enter NATO in three to five years (or no such guarantee).  As if that will ever happen.  It is more likely Putin will have taken over all of Ukraine in that time,

The only way Trump could force such an agreement is by cutting off military aid.  Unless NATO increased military aid, Ukraine could lose the war.

As a Gold Star family, I well understand the cost of war in lives and treasure.  One does not end wars by allowing megalomaniacal aggressors to advance.  Any gain merely whets their appetite for the next invasion and occupation.  Putin has already taken over Georgia and Chechia.  He is the new Hitler.  And we are acting more like Chamberlain.

I do not believe that Trump will completely acquiesce to Putin – or that Congress will cut off aid to Ukraine —  it is the uncertainty that worries me.

So, there ‘tis.