Biden polling numbers better … but not good

One thing upon which virtually everyone agrees is that the 2024 presidential election will be close.  That means a difference in the vote count between President Biden and President Trump of something less than five points.  Rarely has the lead in the polls – usually with Trump ahead – exceeded that five-point spread, and only once did either candidate reach a 50 percent mark in a poll – in that case it was Trump.

Based on polling, it would be insane to bet the ranch on the outcome.  But polling – as imperfect as it may be – is all we have to analyze the potential future outcome.  While individual polls can be questioned in terms of accuracy, the best analyst of polling data is MSNBC’s Steve Kornacki. He produces a very objective analysis despite the network’s extreme leftwing bias.  For that reason, I was particularly interested in his analysis of the latest NBC poll.

It is important to keep in mind that the quality of Kornacki’s explanation of the numbers is a different issue than the fundamental confidence one might have – or not have — in the actual NBC poll.  There is good reason to be a bit dubious.  NBC polls have tended to favor Democrats more than Republicans.

Also, this is one of the most difficult political seasons for pollsters.  The crafting of polls relies on history to a large extent – past voting numbers and patterns.  This political season is rife with anomalies.  The first contest with two Presidents since 1898 … a presidential candidate who has age and mental acuity issues … a presidential candidate with a number of court cases, some criminal … abortion becoming a top-ten voter issue after Roe v. Wade was overturned … voters so emotionally divided on the key issues of the economy, the border, crime, foreign wars … and the American democracy.

With all those disclaimers, what can we deduce from the latest NBC poll – and Kornacki’s analysis?

According to NBC, Trump maintains a lead over Biden (46% to 44%), but it is closer than the NBC poll in January, which showed Trump ahead (47% to 42%).  Biden has improved his job performance number with 42 percent approving and 56 percent disapproving.  That is up from Biden’s all-time NBC low of 37 percent in January, with 60 percent disapproving.

That may be good news for Biden, but Kornacki notes that Biden’s approval rating is below presidents who lost reelection – specifically Donald Trump, with a 46 percent approval rating at this time in 2020 and George H.W. Bush, with a 43 percent approval rating at this time in 1984.

Kornacki noted that the last time Biden matched Trump’s 2020 46 percent approval was at the beginning of 2023 – and that the last time he exceeded the Trump losing number was way back in the summer of 2021.  That was shortly after the Afghanistan debacle.

In terms of the issues, voters see Biden as the better choice on abortion (46% to 31%) and “bringing the nation together” (37% to 28%).  Kornacki noted that 35 percent of the respondents did not believe either candidate was doing a good job unifying the country.  That could portend a large non-voter number.

Trump dominated on the general perception of the issues.  Who is better at handling a crisis?  Trump trumps Biden 46 percent to 42 percent. 

Who has the best record as President?  It is Trump over Biden 46 percent to 39 percent. 

Which of the two is most competent and effective?  It is Trump at 47 percent to Biden’s 36 percent.  That is a 10-point advantage in a category that Biden and Democrats have been claiming as their high ground.  By comparison, those numbers are the reverse of 2020 when Biden had the advantage over Trump (47% to 38%).

When it comes to specifics, 52 percent of the voters believe Trump is better than Biden (30%) in dealing with inflation and cost-of-living issues.  That is a 22-point advantage on an issue that Biden has been hard selling in his rosy Bidenomics claims.

And when it comes to “mental and physical health,” voters see Trump as the winner on the gym issue by 45 percent to 26 percent — a 19-point advantage for Trump.

While NBC reported on the candidate preference on abortion and bringing the country together, the Kornacki reporting was interestingly incomplete on the comparative voter preference on the issues of immigration and defending democracy – which are well ahead of abortion as voter concerns, along with the economy. 

That is an ominous omission since most of the recent polls show Trump ahead of Biden on handling those issues – even defending democracy in many cases.  More importantly, the omitted issues in the news reports are considered more important by voters.  Abortion rarely makes it to the top five issues that concern voters.

Perhaps the greatest surprise in the NBC poll is that it shows independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. taking more voters from Trump than Biden.  With Kennedy in the calculation Trump’s 46 percent to 44 percent lead shifts in Biden’s favor (39% to 37%) — with JFK, Jr. taking 13 percent.  That is counterintuitive and is the opposite of most other polls.

Also not reported was the breakdown of polling numbers from the key battleground states.   Most past polling shows Trump with more substantial leads in all the battleground states, with the possible exception of Wisconsin.

In the NBC poll, Vice President Harris hit a new low with an approval rating of 32 percent.  This is particularly significant in view of Biden’s age and concern about his ability to complete a second term.

The NBC poll was among “registered voters.”  That is not the best method.  We generally get more accurate information by polling “likely voters.”  And even that is troublesome this season since most polls show the potential of a lot of voters rejecting both Biden and Trump. The NBC poll shows the interest or enthusiasm level at 64 percent, the lowest number in the past five presidential elections.

So … what can we conclude from the NBC poll?  What can we project into the November election?  To the first question, at this moment in time, Trump is in the winning position.  If the election were today, Trump would likely be heading into a second term. As to the second question, the answer is “not much.  The numbers are close.   The situation is fluid.  A lot can and will happen in the next few months.

Apart from creating fodder for partisan punditry, the real value of polling is giving the campaigns insights into their respective strengths and weaknesses in order to develop ongoing strategies.  Stay tuned for the next installment.

So, there ‘tis.