Biden is currently losing the election big time
Democrats have been hoping for – and predicting – that moment when President Biden’s polling numbers will improve. Yes, there are a couple of polls that have him tied with President Trump or a point or two ahead – well within the margin of error. For the most part, however, Trump leads in the head-to-head contest, the majority of the all-important battleground states and on the issues that voters say are the most important.
In fact, Trump appears to be gaining ground. Some pundits and election analysts expected that — and pointed to the outrageous financial judgments against Trump in the E. Jean Carroll and corporate fraud cases.
They seemed to have provided credibility to Trump’s claim that he is being persecuted – not prosecuted – for political purposes. This was especially true when an appellate court reduced the amount he was to pay from $450 million to $175 million during his appeal.
That is how it has been – and is – in the upside-down world of Donald Trump. The more bad news Democrats pile on, the more popular he becomes with the electorate. And yet, Democrats and their media cronies continue to double down on their one and only campaign theme – that Trump is an existential threat to American democracy.
Trump as threat to democracy
That is the Democrat’s trump card, so to speak. It is their ace in the hole. However, it has not been a convincing argument for months, and is not likely to attract more voters now or in the future. Most polls are split evenly on which candidate is the greater threat to American democracy. In some polls, Trump is actually ahead on that issue.
Trump’s position was given some impetus when third party candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. accused Biden of posing the greatest threat to democracy. He based it on such authoritarian practices of censorship and media propaganda.
The CBS/YouGov poll asked which candidate would be better in protecting American democracy and the rule of law. Biden got 34 percent of voters. And Trump got 33 percent. An NBC poll gave Biden 43 percent to Trump’s 41 percent on that issue. A statistical tie.
Ponder that. All that time and money Team Biden has put into selling Trump as the existential threat to democracy — all that extreme and hysterical scaremongering blabber from the leftwing press — and at best Biden breaks even on the issue, and even falls behind in some polls. Using scaremongering tactics to demonize Trump is clearly not working.
Head-to-head
The latest FOX News poll is in line with most of the other major pollsters, but there is one figure that stands out. It has Trump beating Biden by 50 percent to 45 percent. That is a significant margin in view of the closely divided American public. If that were an Election Day outcome, it would be considered a near landslide for Trump. But there is something even more important.
In previous commentaries, I had indicated that the difference between Trump and Biden – regardless of who was on top – was always a plurality, with each candidate pulling numbers in the mid-40 percentile range. What is new and very significant in the FOX poll is that Trump has inched to the 50 percent mark. That is a number that Biden has not attained in any poll since his disastrous surrender in Afghanistan. That has to be terrifying to Team Biden.
Battleground states
In terms of the battleground states – and the Electoral College vote – Trump maintains his strong lead in five of six key states. Trump is up by 5 points in Arizona, by 6 points in Georgia, by 5 points in Michigan, by 10 points in Nevada, and by 4 points in Pennsylvania. Biden prevails precariously in Wisconsin by only 2 points – essentially a statistical tie.
Electoral College
As we have learned in the past, the Electoral College vote is more important than the popular vote. It takes 270 electoral votes to win the presidency. Based on current polling data, Trump would get 324 electoral votes to Biden’s 214. To get 270+ electoral votes, Biden would have to turn around most of the battleground states.
Right/wrong direction
One of the historic key indicators of an election outcome is the question as to whether the nation is on the right track or the wrong track. A wrong track majority bodes ill for incumbents.
According to a number of polls, more than 70 percent of voters say America is on the wrong track. That is devastating for Team Biden – and it goes beyond the presidency. It can impact which party controls the Senate and the House, and innumerable offices across the land.
The breakdown between parties and the trend is even more ominous for Biden. Almost half (49%) of Democrats are dissatisfied with the direction of the country – and that is up an astounding 29 points since Biden took office. As can be expected, 92 percent of Republicans are dissatisfied – and that is up by 8 points. What may be the greatest concern for Biden is the 83 percent of independents who are dissatisfied – up 18 points since Biden took office.
In terms of issues, voters will be casting their ballots on the issues of greatest concern. Polls tell us that immigration and the economy alternately take the top spot. That is followed by crime, protecting democracy, and climate change.
On handling the economy and inflation, an NBC poll had Trump at 55 percent and Biden at 33 percent – a 22-point gap. On the issue of immigration and border protection, Trump trumps Biden by 30 points.
The latest Pew Research information I could find (that means Google and Bing AI could find) was a 2023 survey of the top issues. The TOP five issues were Economic Policy (Trump up by 12 points), Crime Policy (Trump up by 10 points), Immigration Policy (Trump up by 10 points), Budget Deficit Policies (Trump up by 8 points) and Foreign Policy (Trump up by 4 points).
Biden topped Trump Healthcare Policies (op 2 points), Abortion (up 12 points) and Climate Policies (up 14 points). But these were much further down the list of voter concerns — in 10th, 11th and 12th place.
Age
And no matter how Democrats try to create a parity between Biden’s and Trump’s age and mental acuity, Trump is still considered the most able physically and mentally by voters – but not by a wide margin. To some extent, the parity argument appears to be having a modicum of success.
At the bottom line, however, the polling numbers provide no good news for Biden on the age issue. According to the NBC Poll, 68 percent of voters have concern about Biden’s mental and physical health – with more than half (55%) having a “major concern.” In terms of Trump, 55 percent are somewhat concerned about Trump’s physical and mental health – with less than half (44%) having a “major concern.”
Demographics
Among the most important groups in the Democrat base are Blacks, Hispanics, Arabs and young voters. In 2020, Biden carried 87 percent of the Black vote. He is currently around 63 percent in recent polls. In 2020. Biden won 65 percent of the Hispanic vote. Current polls have Trump ahead by 5 points (39% to 34%).
In response to Biden’s support for Israel in the Hamas War – especially in providing weapons and ammunition – Biden support from Arab Americans has plummeted from 69 percent to 17 percent. Young voters between the ages of 18 and 34 give Trump overwhelming support – 54.4 percent to 36.6 percent, according to a FAU/Mainstreet Research poll.
Summary
It is natural for the political contenders to pick and choose from the data that reflects best on their positions and their potential. It is commonly called “spin” – a euphemism for “propaganda.” But an objective look at the preponderance of hard evidence and data gives insight into the reality of the situation at a given time.
Based on a more thorough analysis, the facts of this moment are very clear – and very problematic for Biden and the Democrats. Trump is ahead in almost every measure of voter preference. It is hard to mount a rational argument against the belief that if the election were held today – and as inconceivable as it may seem to those on the left — Trump would win both the popular vote and the Electoral College vote by a comfortable margin – maybe even a landslide.
That is not a prediction. Much can change in the months ahead. But at this point, it is Biden who has a much more daunting challenge — the much steeper hill to climb.
So, there ‘tis.
I damned sure hope Biden loses. But as long as obituaries are posted I’ll have to wait and see. I’m being serious here. With questions about the 2020 election all people should be on the lookout. The democrats will steal the election if we let them.
Richard can not prove what he says.
BUSTED.
Horist: still pretty close and time to go. I’ll take the jobs report and unemployment report as harbingers of a great Spring for the economy. I may even jump back in soon. Youngsters and minorities looking for choice was expected after the 2020 vote; I expect these folks can change back even faster as the Spring rolls into summer. Plus, our biggest strength is Trump. We still need to spread the word of his own words. He’s our best chance at getting old man Biden one more time at the plate.
Persecuted, prosecuted, give me a break. You think him persecuted? Really? Et tu Horist on weaponizing FBI, DOJ, the courts, and the judiciary? Get him in office to free the 1/6 criminals because the criminals are actually hostages?
It’s obvious that anyone with Trump’s money will never pay the piper in full. That was a given before the penalty was assessed.. Same with the EJ money. The court was a bit premature, but everyone knows it was heading downwards. Like appearing in traffic court, yeah you will be guilty but probably will reduce the penalty just by showing up.
The women’s vote will be our strength, but we need to regain men feeling the pain from being called, and treated, as toxic. You have a number of articles alluding or talking about that. Hopefully they will come round given I doubt much will change by then. There is no third party candidate as No Labels goes way and RFK is no way. No that he’s calling J6 criminals as activists can only steal from Trump and give folks back to Biden so he’s probably helping Biden at this point. As I said, the Spring economy will be important, and so far, so good.
I think the biggest thing might be that even though we have put a dent in inflation, people are still paying high prices as inflation-based pricing has not receded. I feel it too. Like, “you got to be kidding me still? I think I will look at lower priced alternatives.” Hopefully, the Spring will change that for the better too.
You’re spot on the numbers, but IMO, you’re off in the opinions and guesses. Still think we can turn it around.
Do you think there will be debates?
One more thing..wait, what’s that noise, why is the house shaking, is a tank about to hit us, oh no, oh no…..phew. Over now. 4.8 NJ earthquake with Trump golf course as epicenter. God has spoken. Can’t wait to see his insurance claim… And Mr. Horist, better watch out for Hurricane season Mr. Horist, you are awfully close to the Fatherland. God is placing his vote.
Seriously —- all my friends and associates are OK so far. More shaking and noise for most. Worst one in hundreds of years buy my house may be older and it still stands.
Suck it up buttercup. Joe blow is losing. And people like you who support the idiot prove that you are of no character. So get over it asshole.
Idiot
hmmmm. people who don’t vote like you are “assholes” “of no character.”
yeah, I think we all know who says that bullshit.
Arrogant and naive Frank. Which indoctrination center did you graduate from? China Joe is bought and paid for! A lot of the jobs reported are 2nd and 3rd jobs because people can’t make it on one job. CPI leaves out Groceries, gas, energy, and a lot of everyday necessities. You spend over 30% on groceries than you spent 3 years ago. Here is a list you will need to purchase if you vote for China Joe if you don’t already have them.
Electric Stove
New dishwasher
Heat Pumps to replace your AC/Heating unit
Electric car
Electric car charger
Probably a new larger Electrical Panel to handle the load
Solar Panels
Solar back up storage
This is a few things that will be mandatory and the grid will not handle these.
Arrogant and naive James L. Would have been a great post except for the lead….. There is not one mandate, one serious law proposed in Congress, one party plank or Joe campaign pledge to force any of this.
Yes, more people are working multiple jobs, part of that is because less people worked multiple jobs in the pandemic which bottomed out — multi job wise, in 2021, i.e =—- Joe also held the lowest, so vote Joe.
A little over 5% of workers have multiple jobs, some with full time, some just multi part-time. But yes, inflation rise might be down, but many prices have not moved down. It should come, but does not pay the bills. Question: is this the point that I roll out the Republican curse of minimum raise increase: these people should just work harder to get a real job to begin with….. Nah, I won’t go that low…..
The 5% has been pretty stable for 2 decades, the high in the late 90’s above 6%, the low under Biden in 2021 at around 4.5%. That’s where the current rate of around 5.2% has risen from, but overall, about the same as always. No help for those needing two jobs to pay the bills when they did not used to. Guess we need a few more Trump stimuli since Republicans can not survive without them……
With regard to CPI, I do not know what you are smoking. Not even close. Funny note: I run my own CPI and my spending needs are not even close to the national. So, yes, I feel the inflation pain on food, but housing? heat? furniture? and many other things counted don’t even touch me and my personal CPI is way different. It was fun to do though.
Well, it’s China Joe for me since Killer Saudi Prince Don is far worse, even if his sword dance was funny and phallic at the same time as Don went for the Saudi’s sword, oh boy.
Check those facts, think you will see I am spot on.
Biden WILL lose because he is on the side of LOOSING ISSUES.
His Democrat base are all piled in the Bus cheering as it is going off the cliff.
The 34% who are behind Biden only do so not because they do not believe in him or his issues, but
because they want a Paycheck! Period!
This is what happens when you believe your own Bull Shit.
Legal people of Mexican decent do NOT want immigration from the southern border.
They will not speak of it till they Vote.
Americans do not want electric cars or High priced Gas, they do not speak of it till they Vote!
Most Americans want Trump in office, they will not speak of it till they Vote!
Just remember, when Trump wins, within a Year there will be another Pandemic only worse.
This way the media can say every time Trump is in office the world gets a Virus.
The Democrat’s will Kill 50% of the population if need be just to stay in power, the corrupt minded elites that they are.
There are some messed up minded people.
Mark my words!
Ole Joe and his administration has turned our historic White House into a national rest home. He was and is no longer competent enough to be reelected to any government office requiring an ability to think clearly. Sad but so obvious it no longer can be camouflaged by the mainstream news media. Their efforts only add fire to the continued Biden gaffs we Americans are being hopelessly persuaded to ignore.
Not a screed Horist, they never are, but most certainly a rant. Skip to the end re: the new DJT stock offer. It’s an amazing architecture and I am sure wave of the future for political funding, influence, grifting, and graft. I stand impressed.
“They seemed to have provided credibility to Trump’s claim that he is being persecuted – not prosecuted – for political purposes.” That may be, but Trump has just actually done the unimaginable, something new. He has figured how to game the voters and the system for unbelievable foreign investments into anything Trump — business, politics, legal, whatever, totally legally and totally shameful. There ought to, and there will be: a law. Yes, Trump will finally have created law!!!
Meanwhile, Biden has been accused, selected, detected, rejected, objected and subjects to investigation, review, and spew and, so far, nothing has stuck, no charges found, not even an impeachment. On a personal level, all you can whine about is his age. Meanwhile, the other guy, Mr. Law and Oder himself has been investigated, home raided, subpoenaed, tried, convicted, and held liable because he, according to the court records:
– Sexual abused, of the digital rape variety with a stranger that he seems to think is an ex-wife
– Defrauded Trump University students, had to close the business
– Stolen from his own charity, had to shutter that
– His business is criminally convicted of tax fraud and falsifying records
– His top lawyer went to jail; he was unindicted co-conspirator number one but not indicted due to being a sitting President —- now he’s got squat and faces the court for rigging the 2016 election, the only way he could beat a girl without a sexual abuse charge
– His CFO is in jail, he was a crook for Trump’s Dad, the real money maker, too.
– His three lawyers pled guilty to criminal charges of rigging the 2020 election, have flipped, and will testify against Trump in that case
On a personal level, this man is both cad and criminal, with a lot of liabilities tossed in.
On April 15th, he will stand trial and probably be found guilty of rigging the 2016 election by paying off a porn star and playboy model to not talk about his sex acts just before the election. He is unindicted co-conspirator to his guilty lawyer who went to jail for this. When he got out early on a covid release, and was about to release a tell-all book, Trump had DOJ put him back in jail again. Sweet guy, loyal. The 2016 election rigging hush money trial will give you one more time to ignore the facts, ignore the truth and pledge your fealty to your fraudulent King.
You honor a crook, a grifter, because, as a patriot, on behalf of the country (wink, wink, nudge, nudge) he borrowed HUGE bucks from the Chinese to line your pockets with small bucks. He ran up the largest deficits ever, starting well before covid as his tax cuts deprived the nation of services but did not create any GDP growth, few new factories, the program was a bust, but you got a few extra Chinese bucks and love him for selling out.
You honor a life-long Democrat, like his dad, who only became Republican because you would vote for him, you were a cheap sell, and you would give him all the money. He sells you comic pictures, golden kicks, and even $59.99 Bibles. You buy his Truth Social giving him billions just like the Saudi killer Prince gives his family over three billion to-date as he creates Don’s International Crime Family, better known as the DIC Family.
Now he is applauding, calling these assholes who stormed the Capitol, literally shit on the nation, he calls them patriots, hostages, for their criminal acts on 1/6/2021 while taking HUGE bucks from the killer Saudis in his business. His son-in-law got a few billion from the killer Suadi prince and wants to displace GAZA to make way for beachfront condos. That’s’ right, the grifter has figured out how to leverage his political standing for international monetary gain. The DIC Family, is going global, taking your vote and turning it into bucks from autocrats and dictators world-wide. That is your law and oder President.
Did you buy your Trump Bible? Did you hold it upside down for photos like Trump did?
Here’s the worst part. The downright scary part. Trump has figured out how to grift Wall Street. He has figured out how to create a public company that operates like a family-owned business. That treats the public as financiers but steals their power of ownership. Here’s how he did it. First, you create a stump, chump, pump, and dump company. Then you get majority ownership, hire a puppet Board of Directors but step away from the board so you can’t be blamed legally, while you still totally control the company, hit the political stump to market to the chumps, pump the stock up, and then dump it for big bucks for a company that is essentially hot air. And the suckers line up for overvalued shares before the dump. The board includes: Donald Trump Jr., congressman Devin Nunes, Robert Lighthizer, Kash Patel (the guy who paid the “whistleblowers to blow), and Linda McMahon —- all Trump stooges. The company has no assets, is losing money (it’s a Trump business after all), and its only value is Trump himself — he goes away and so does the company.
But here’s the evil genius part: any foreign country or person can dump big bucks into DJT. Think about it. Trump is worth, let’s say $4B. The Saudi Prince is worth $1.4T. Do you think the prince would even notice a $10B “donation” to DJT? He might even profit, you never know. Do you think DJT would notice a $10B purchase of DJT and smile at the Saudi Prince? Perfectly legal, and there’s gonna be a law. Just not yet. So the pump n dump continues, the smart guys will short and get out quick, the Princes of the world don’t care, they are funding something else that’s different and evil, and the chump’s will suffer the dump and be bumped to the curb —- broke. Classic with a political twist. And DJT sells DJT to sell the country to the princes. He has politicized and financially weaponized public offerings that look totally private in operations. Brilliant! He’s too dumb for this one so I wonder who crafted this crap for him.
So continue to polish this turd, but in the end, it will always be a turd. Trump has always been a turd, a conman, a grifter, a crook, and he not only continues that, but now has figured out how to run a pump and dump for a public company that he has structured like a Mafia Don. It’s just a matter of time until the SEC comes down on this crap. Continue to hold your nose and vote for the man three times now while telling the world: I don’t like the man, but I love the policies. The three R’s: revenge, retribution, and Republican. It was once said that in Nazi Germany, all Germans were not Nazi’s, all Germans were not bad. BULLSHIT. They caved to evil to get the goods. They shut their eyes to the horrors that they profited from. In 1939, you might get away with that, but after 1942, there were NO GOOD GERMANS. And when you vote Trump for the third time in 2024, there will be no good Republicans. You will be 100% Trumplicant, in for a peck, in for a pound. The grift, the gab, the guy, 100%.
Frank Stetson … I read the first graph, as I usually do. I did not skip to the end. I just skipped it all. You really do not understand. Virtually no one reads such long diatribes — especially when you have clearing established a history of repeating the same crap over and over and over and over. With our usual personal insults and mendacious accusations. And your denial of writing screeds is laughable. You also write rants. Both shoes fit … so wear them. If you need to … look up the definitions. Keep in mind, Frank , that saying something does not make it so … beyond your own mind, that is.
I understand how old men lose patience and have the attention span of a gnat. And it’s important to you to ding your most frequent readers; pugnacious prick that you be. Your response before this was actually decent, but a one-hit wonder and you’re back to the same old crap. Although you did leave out “mendacious.”
Unlike you, I do not do this for the money. It’s means nothing to my “legacy.” I am just writing for me. If you don’t like it, don’t read it. But telling me off is something you do for yourself; it has no effect since you are so unimportant in the scheme of things. Just like the gnat. You seem to need to do it to feel better since you admit, no one gives a crap about anything here.
One man’s screed is another man’s information. One man’s rant is another man’s Bible. And when it comes to screeds, you are the master. I understand you have whole books of screeds regurgitating your new views from the 70’s rehashed, but not improved. I liked the one time you actually discussed a comment, no names, instead of the normal pugnacious prick patter you usually provide.
What a pity Larry. Frank did a good job at explaining the SPAC company of Trump’s Truth Social in the third to the last paragraph. You might have learned something!
Tom … Maybe so. I could also rummage through a garbage dump in hope of finding a diamond ring, but not worth the effort. But your constant praise of Frank is duly noted. LOL
Frank Stetson …. Whew! A post in a readable range. I must admit to reading this one since it started out with your usual bitter and, yes, mendacious, ad hominin attacks on me — along with those mindless insults and childish name calling that you say you deplore. (Very hypocritical of you.) I fully understand that you are not paid to write. After all, who WOULD pay you for what your write — based on both style and content. At lease we agree that yo are just writing for yourself. That is what I have been trying to telling you — although I do concede to you a hand full of possible readers of some of your stuff on occasion. And you again spin my writing to suit your fantasy. I never said that no one gives a crap about anything written here. Allow me to correct your misunderstanding of my writing. (Almost) no one gives a crap about what YOU post here. I state my opinions in the commentary. You and other agree or disagree. That is it. I am not here to debate you — as you so fervently desire. And frankly, I would hardly respond to you at all if you were not so obsessed with attacking me — even in your responses to other writers. And I only respond occasionally — when I have a little spare time. I see you as obsessed because you respond to virtually everything i write, while I ignore most of your posts and personal insults. Hey! Here is a challenge. Can you refrain from responding to this post? LOL
This article gets a Stop The Spin rating of STS – 2. Here’s why:
While the fact are for the most part accurate, this article is a Larry dream meant to influence. Can we count the number of times Larry has said he does not put much faith in polls, especially early ones – yet he does not have a problem creating a GOP dream using them. Seems like Larry’s enthusiastic article title reveals he may not put much faith because he puts much more hope in early polls.
Here’s the article spins and omissions:
1) The appellate court reduced the amount he was to pay from $450 million to $175 million during his appeal was not a sign from the court system that the court felt Trump was persecuted or unfairly treated!! This is a major spin by Larry. The court reduced the bond so that Trump could pay enough to keep Trump’s right to appeal alive because the self-declared billionaire (remember how much he says his name is worth) could not scratch up the $465M within 30 days of the judgement, and, his own kids (Jared and Evanka, and little Donny) who all grifted hundreds of millions would not come to their daddy’s aid. Trump is still responsible for the full $465M if he loses his appeal.
2) Statistics today, 4/7/2024 have Biden closing all of those voter gaps with many gaps around 2-3% . IT appears as Biden gets the message out, and more importantly as Trump gets his message out, the gap is closing. The issue is how this gap will look after a couple Trump convictions – many independents have stated they will not vote for Trump if he has a conviction(s). And once those uneducated recent converts to GOP learn how Trump intends on screwing them out of social programs that many of them rely on, and as the election gets close, it is predicted that many of them will go back to the Dem party.
3) Aging is a concern of many voters, and it is an concern about both men. Period. A recent article from an ex-ESPN reporter who is now a FOX reporter did an interview with Biden. She indicated that the interview was the most heavily scripted interview she has ever had to do. No going off script. No wandering in discussion. Very strict interview guidelines were mentioned. This will not play good for Biden in overcoming the age related comments. Expect more visibility of Trump gaffs in the future. And as usual, expect Trump’s mouth to negatively impact this issue. The real issue is deeper than the age. It is the VP selection of each candidate in the even that the POTUS expires. This is where Trump will have an edge with the selection of a candidate acceptable to Independents.
4) Strong decrease of Arabs supporting Biden due to the Israel-Hamas War does not mean that these same Arabs will be voting for Trump. And any that do vote for Trump is actually an indicator that Trump is perceived as more sympathetic to terrorists like Hamas who want America and Israel to die. But the truth is that while many Arabs are upset with how Biden is handling the conflict, I have not heard any saying they will vote for Trump. And the young voters who have swung to Trump are mostly the low educated that do not have college loans they want relieved. The more educated young voters are still overwhelmingly for Biden.
This Independent / Unaffiliated voter feels it is way to early to call this election as Biden “losing the election big time”. Biden recently as two weeks ago held a fund raiser where $25M was raised with mostly less than $200 donations. Trump last week held a fund raiser at Mara-Lago where he raised around $50M where most donations were large sums from wealthy. Biden has $192M in his warchest. Trump has $93M.
1) While fund raising may not be the best indicator of elect ability, it does say that Biden has a much better ground game and that Biden has more of the people’s support. 2) What will also influence Independents will be what Speaker Johnson does in the next few months. His removal will send us signals that the GOP is not functional and cannot present consistent leadership. 3) Again, Trump’s mouth and any future convictions will heavily influence Independents away from Trump 4) Many Independents fear that Trump is already for sale to Arabs, Russia, and now Don Hankey who recently provided cover for Trump’s $175M bond which was insufficiently documented and rejected for further documents. 5) Mr. Hankey has admitted that he offered Trump support and Trump lawyers were in discussions with him on bond details when Trumps lawyers lied and said Trump could not come up with the full $465M bond. Hankey offered Trump the full bond using Trump’s real estate assets as collateral before Trump’s lawyers begged for the lowering of the bond. So basically Trump scammed the court, Judge Engoron. This issue is going back to court this week and should be interesting. Once again, Trump shows that he is dishonest which is something Independents deplore.
It is likely that this Larry dream will become a nightmare by September. Only time will tell.
Tom …I love how officiously you put out weak rebuttals — mostly misrepresenting my statements and opinions as your straw men. Soooo. I must clarify for you.
Yes, I have always treated polls with modicum of dubiousness. BUT, no one who analyzes politics completely disregards them. While not perfect, they are the most credible indicators of trends and voter preferences at a given time. Basically, it is all we have — and they do give RELATIVELY accurate information. My skepticism is mostly seen in predicting longer range futures on todays numbers — which I note almost every time I analyze polls. There is a reason why campaigns spend millions of dollars on polling. So, your snide comment is just that. A cheap shot.
1. You imply that I claimed the appellate court reduced the amount because THEY thought Trump was being persecuted. Again, you rebut an argument I never made. The point was that many VOTERS would see the reduction as an indication of persecution. And according to polls, they do. Get it?
2. There is some indication that in some areas, the polling gap is closing. That is not a refutation of my analysis. In fact, even taking any “closing” into consideration, the numbers still lead to a Trump victory AT THIS POINT IN TIME. If you are predicting that I am suggesting Biden will win in November, you are putting too much into the current situation and totally misrepresenting my opinion. You are doing what I actually advise against. You notice that I closed by saying the commentary was NOT a prediction of the November outcome. Not sure how you missed that.
3. Again you missed the facts. I was reporting the polling numbers regarding the age issue. Virtually every polls shows voters are more concerned about Biden’s age and mental acuity than Trump’s. Your rebuttal is merely your opinion — and has no relevancy to the commentary. Your opinion on the age of each is just that, but you are in the minority.
4. Again you rebut a straw man. I did not say that the bulk of Arab votes would go to Trump. Only that they seem to be abandoning voting for Biden. You made a bad assumption. They could skipping the presidential race — which I think is the more likely option.
You say it is too early to call the election. Well duh! That is exactly what I said I was NOT doing. Again you argue against a fiction in your mind. The rest of your post is merely your argument for a Biden win. Okay. Your opinion based on selected information. I specifically said that is possible. So, what is your point?
I do not know if it is your bias, or an overly eager desire to refute me, or a reading comprehension issue, but it is clear that your responses are inconsistent with what I have written. You call my objective analysis of the polling facts as they stand today as a dream. My commentary was merely an analysis of facts, while your rebuttal was largely a litany fictional straw man arguments. I was not making a case for a Trump win in November, but mere what would likely happen if the election were today.