A Factual Covid-19 Update

From time to time, I do an in-depth look at the actual Covid-19 statistics.  I do this because I see so much politicization of the facts and a lot of fearmongering by the media – including by a lot of those highly paid media doctors. So, here is a Covid-19 update based on the facts.

Make no mistake about it.  The Covid-19 Pandemic is a very serious human disaster.  It has made a lot of people terribly ill – and a lot of people have died.  But even the disaster that it is, we need to put things in perspective.  After all, we have literally taken down one of the strongest economies in American history based on the virus.  Have we still done too little?  Or have we gone too far and created a greater problem for society than the disease itself?

To fully understand the impact of the disease, we must look at basic statistics – and analyze them properly. 

The first statistic to look at is the number of people who have contracted the disease in the past year.  At the time of this writing, it is 27,407,324.  That is the number that you see the press repeatedly report.

There are those who contend that this number understates the actual number of victims. That is because many may have been asymptomatic and never knew they had Covid-19.   Others believe that the number is overstated because a significant number of cases are “assumed” to have died of Covid-19. However, there was no forensic evidence that they actually had the virus – that hospitals may overreport Covid-19 because they get special funding.  I prefer to avoid that debate for now and stick with the official number.

There is an even more important number that the news media refuses to report.

And I think the failure to regularly report this other number is significant.  I am referring to the number of people who have recovered from Covid-19 – including my own son.  The 27,407,324 number you see every day on the newscasts is the TOTAL of everyone who has allegedly had the Covid-19 virus since the start of the Pandemic. 

However, according to the current numbers, 17,146,169 people have recovered.   The number of those currently walking around – or hospitalized — with the disease is 9,775,273.   In other words, there are more people walking around with immunity than there are potential spreaders.  And the good news is that the number of recovered is increasing faster than the number coming down with Covid-19.

We should be less concerned about the number of total cases than the number of hospitalizations and deaths. 

The number of cases grows for two reasons.  Increased testing is finding more asymptomatic cases — such as my son – and the continuing spread of infections.

While the gross number of 27,407,324 total cases does not indicate that the disease is exponentially spreading or getting worse – just that more people have had it.  That number can never decrease. Increases in hospitalizations and deaths, however, are clear indicators of spread.  We saw a spike in hospitalizations and deaths in November, December and January that were likely caused by the major holiday festivities – Thanksgiving, Christmas, Hanukkah and New Year.

Coincidentally, we are past the holiday season impact and have started to roll out the Covid-19 vaccines.  While the number of currently infected people (not counting those recovered) continues to rise, the hospitalizations and deaths have begun to decline.  Once again, we did not overrun our hospitals as the fearmongering press had speculatively reported.  Yes, they got crowded, but not overrun.  Once again, those temporary field hospital facilities were never used – or underused.  And that is a good thing.  It is not something about which we should bicker.

As we move toward that odd scientific concept known as “herd immunity,” we need to keep in mind that every day more and more Americans are walking about with a very reduced chance of getting the disease or giving it to others.  They are the millions of recovered and the inoculated.

By the time Covid-19 is in the rearview mirror, the professionals estimate that some 30 to 40 million Americans will have contracted Covid-19. 

That means that approximately 80 to 90 percent of us will never even get Covid-19.  And if the statistics hold, 80 percent of those who get the virus will have mild to no symptoms – they will not need hospitalization. 

Outside of isolating himself, my son did not even need to take any over-the-counter medications. He felt fine.  Had it not been for the test, he never would have known he had Covid-19.  It is an odd disease that can make some people deathly sick – literally – and have no apparent impact on so many others.

As of the time of this writing … of the 9,775,273 ACTIVE cases in America there are only 23,159 that are “serious/critical” according to government statistics.  For sure, there are more than that in hospitals, but not everyone in a hospital is determined to be in “serious,” “critical”  or life-threatening condition.

We hear a lot about the new strains of Covid-19 – mostly the United Kingdom and the South African mutations. 

There is a general consensus among professionals that they spread more easily but are not more deadly. They also believe that the current vaccines can prevent them, too.  So, what we are likely to see is an increase in cases, but a continuing decrease in hospitalizations and deaths.

I would not call it good news, but there is an irony in the fact that the greater the spread – without greater fatal outcomes – the more folks will be walking around with the natural immunity of the antibodies and can be plasma donors – as is my son.  I guess it is nature’s way of inoculating.

If we look at the numbers – and follow the science – there is a serious argument to be made that we may have overshot – and are overshooting – on the lockdowns.  Already the scientists are saying to open schools and the politicians and the school unions are refusing to listen to them.  We probably should be re-opening our restaurants, gyms, churches and stadiums to greater capacity – even full capacity in many cases.

I personally believe that we are heading into better times a bit sooner than those doomsday prognosticators or political spinners would have us believe.  If only the media and the politicians would allow it to happen – of at least give us ALL the facts.

So, there ‘tis.