Russia is Losing the Ukraine War

In a previous commentary, I wrote about the personal impact of the Ukraine war on Russian President Vladimir Putin. He is showing early signs of the agony of defeat. And given the situation on the ground, that is understandable. The tide of war seems to have shifted in Ukraine’s favor.

At the time of his invasion, Putin anticipated that he would take over all of Ukraine in a matter of days – as did many observers, including the feckless Biden administration. But for the next four years, Russia and Ukraine engaged in a seesaw conflict without decisive victories on either side. More recently, however, we seem to be seeing Ukraine gaining a clear advantage. Russia appears to be losing the war. (No wonder Putin is looking like Hitler hiding in his bunker in the final days of World War II).

Putin launched his so-called special military operation with the arrogant assumption that Kyiv would fall within days to the superior military forces of Russia. Putin’s war machine rolled across the border in February 2022, expecting capitulation. Instead, Russian forces encountered determined resistance from a nation that refused to bow.

The initial blitz stalled outside major cities. Ukrainian defenders, armed with Western-supplied anti-tank weapons and bolstered by national resolve, turned the invasion into a quagmire. Many credit the turnaround to Ukraine’s impressive deployment of drones. What Putin envisioned as a lightning conquest became a protracted nightmare of attrition.

For much of 2024 and 2025, Russian forces clawed forward in slow, incremental advances across the Donbas and other eastern sectors. They seized pockets of territory through grinding assaults at enormous costs. Those gains, however, have now plateaued and begun to reverse.

Recent battlefield assessments show that Russia has suffered a net loss of approximately 116 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in recent months. This reversal marks a stark departure from the modest progress of prior years. In April 2026 alone, Russian forces recorded their first net territorial loss in years, shedding dozens of square kilometers across multiple sectors. Ukrainian counterattacks have liberated settlements in the Kupyansk direction, western Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and areas near Hulyaipole and Oleksandrivka. What Russia gained through blood and treasure is slipping away under Ukrainian pressure.

The human toll on the Russian side is staggering. Estimates place Russian casualties – killed, wounded, and missing – at more than 1.2 million at the end of 2025. That figure exceeds the losses of any major power in any conflict since World War II. In 2025 alone, Russia absorbed roughly 415,000 casualties.

The pace has not slowed in 2026. Reports indicate more than 85,000 Russian troops became casualties in the first three months of 2026, with single months like March exceeding 35,000. These figures outpace recruitment rates, which have dipped below replacement levels for the first time in the war. Russian commanders now rely on lower-quality recruits, foreign volunteers, convicts pressed into service and forced mobilization schemes that target businesses and regions. The military machine is devouring its own people at a rate that no society can endure indefinitely.

Equipment losses compound the crisis. Ukrainian forces report the destruction of thousands of Russian tanks – more than 11,900 in total – along with over 24,000 armored fighting vehicles, hundreds of aircraft, and vast quantities of artillery systems.

Russian assaults depend on infantry-heavy infiltration tactics, with small groups attempting to creep forward or dash across open ground on mopeds, horses, and even golf carts.

Ukrainian First-Person-View (FPV) drones and loitering munitions detect these movements almost immediately. Persistent intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance quadcopters blanket the battlefield, turning roads, river crossings, and supply lines into kill zones. FPV drones swarm Russian armor and infantry before units can consolidate positions. The result is slaughter before any tactical gain. Logistics have ground to a halt under constant observation. Russian men and machines lack the ability to maneuver effectively. Concealment has become nearly impossible.

This is no longer a war of traditional battlefield maneuvers. It has evolved into a robotized conflict where drones and unmanned ground vehicles dominate. Ukraine has embraced unmanned systems to preserve its own limited manpower amid severe demographic challenges.

What was once thought to be impossible is now routine, with Ukraine attacking military assets deep inside Mother Russia.

Tracked unmanned ground vehicles handle ammunition delivery, casualty evacuation, mine placement, and even direct assaults. In some operations, Ukrainian forces have captured Russian positions using only drones and ground robots, with no infantry casualties. Drone swarms conduct intelligence gathering and large-scale targeting, suppressing defenses before human forces advance. Russia attempts to copy these tactics, but Ukraine maintains a clear edge in innovation and deployment.

Ukrainian unmanned systems have neutralized Russian air defenses and intercepted thousands of enemy drones in recent months. What once required divisions now falls to cheap, persistent machines that Ukraine is producing by the tens of thousands each month.

Putin has begun to show cracks in his public demeanor. For years, he maintained a maximalist rhetorical stance, demanding total victory and Ukrainian capitulation. Lately, however, his language has shifted. He has hinted that the conflict is winding down and suggested – without specifics — that his war is “coming to an end.”

This represents a departure from his earlier defiance. The recent Victory Day parade in Moscow offered further evidence of strain. The event was scaled back significantly, with fewer pieces of heavy armor on display and heightened security concerns that kept the spectacle modest. For the first time in years, the traditional column of tanks and ICBMs was absent or minimized. Such displays once projected Russian power. Now their absence reveals shortages and vulnerability.

The economic burden weighs heavily as well. Russia has diverted massive resources to sustain the war, yet manufacturing shows signs of decline, inflation persists, and long-term productivity lags. The Kremlin faces labor shortages and mounting costs that no amount of oil revenue can fully offset.

On the diplomatic front, the Trump administration has pushed aggressively for peace through a framework that includes ceasefire lines, territorial realities, and security guarantees. Russia seeks formal recognition of its occupied lands, sanctions relief, and limits on Ukrainian alliances. Ukraine has no reason to acquiesce to those demands.

Russia entered this conflict with overwhelming advantages in numbers, equipment, and territory held at the start. Four years later, those advantages have evaporated under the weight of Ukrainian resilience, Western support, and technological adaptation.

Putin’s forces bleed territory, manpower, and materiel at rates that signal exhaustion. The agony of defeat is not merely personal for the Russian leader. It is systemic, visible on every map, in every casualty report, and in the hollowed-out displays of former military glory. Russia is not advancing toward triumph. It is retreating.

It is now conceivable that the Ukraine military may drive Russian forces out of the entire country – including the Crimea and all of eastern Ukraine. The tide has turned, and history will record that Vladimir Putin’s grand ambition ended not in conquest, but in costly, undeniable defeat.

This is the time for NATO and the United States to double down on the commitment to Ukraine.

So, there ‘tis.