Is Trump really that influential?

Whether you believe the recent polls that show President Trump is losing support – or whether you believe that his grip on the GOP was never as firm as the leftwing news outlets would like us to believe – it is fair to say that the former President is not on an upswing in popularity.

That does not mean that Trump is not a formidable influence in the Republican Party – but it is mostly based on his fundraising ability and the impact of his negative knee-jerk and often inexplicable attacks on virtually anyone who expresses the least disagreement with him.

Both the fundraising and the potential attacks have kept most of the Republican establishment rather silent on all things Trump.  Those on the left interpret the silence as some form of tacit support for Trump.  Au contraire.  It is more likely a mere avoidance of saying what they really think.  That is particularly true of those facing elections in 2022 – for which Trump’s attacks can make a difference in close primary elections.

For most Republican candidates, there is no benefit to attacking Trump.  There is no benefit to praising him.  The logical approach is to say as little about the former President as possible.

Many of the GOP candidates in 2021 did not see a need to take a stand on Trump since he is not on the ballot.  They focus on the office they are seeking — and the policies they would pursue for the people.  They are letting the left do all the obsessing over Trump – which is driving the left bonkers.  We might call it “the Youngkin effect.”

The significance of Trump will have more meaning AFTER the 2022 midterm elections – when the question of his candidacy will take to the front burner.  That is when we will begin to see just what the former President’s political viability may be – as well as his personal political ambitions.

In terms of his current declining popularity, I do believe that his base and his so-called hold on the Republican Party has been overblown by multiples.  Putting aside the 2020 election controversy, it can be safely said that Trump never had the support of more than 50 percent of the voters.  Even in the 2016 Republican primaries, most of the GOP voters preferred someone other than Trump.   – and I would contend that his hardcore base never exceeded 20 to 25 percent.  That is likely to be the same situation heading in to 2024.

That appears to be borne out in recent opinion polls that show that 56 percent of Republican voters are more loyal to the Party and its principles than to Trump and his personality.  We saw this played out in 2020, when Republican candidates did very well across the country even as Trump lost the election (for whatever reason one might believe).

Republican candidates did very well in 2021 off-year election – especially candidates like Glenn Youngkin in Virginia – by not making Trump an issue nor being suckered in by a baiting news media.  It appears that the GOP will have another good outcome in the upcoming midterm elections without Trump on the ballot.  It will be interesting to see how the various candidates – those Trump wants defeated and those he is endorsing – will fair among the voters.  My early guess is that it will be a mixed bag.

If Trump properly assesses his chances for a return to the White House, I doubt he will even try.  If he has any credible opposition in the primaries – and I assume (hope) he does – his chance of getting the Republican nomination is not good, in my judgment.

Another reason why Trump is losing critical support is that his act is wearing thin.  The bluster, the name-calling and his egocentric personality made for good political theater at the beginning, but his provocative style – whether strategic or not – does not play well with the majority of the folks back home.  Clamoring supporters and packed rallies are not the same as broad-based popularity among voters.

Trump is shrinking his own base with his attacks on virtually every Republican leader. He is turning against many of his one-time supporters – folks like former Vice President Pence, Florida Governor DeSantis, former Attorney General William Barr, former Attorney General Jeff Sessions, and the list goes on.  

Trump is at odds with most of the Republican establishment – those he recasts as Republicans in Name Only (RINOs).  The list includes Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy – and a few governors and secretaries-of-state.  Despite Trump’s opinion, these folks have followers and admirers.  They are not without their influence.

Finally, there are those who left the Republican Party and the conservative cause because of Trump.  Many of them have been voting for Republican candidates even as they reject Trump – and that group of voters are likely to be casting Republican ballots in greater numbers in 2022.

Others have become apostates to the GOP and conservative principles – such folks a one-time conservative activists Bill Kristol, Steve Schmidt, and George Conway – and former Congressmen David Jolly and former Republican National Chairman Michael Steele.  They have gone completely over to leftwing Democrat advocacy by trying to get voters to abandon the GOP up and down the ballot.  I can only assume it is for the money as CNN/MSNBC “contributors.”

In many ways, Trump is becoming more and more like a political Wizard of Oz – a diminished (and diminishing) figure that casts a larger-than-life image on the television screen.   He will not influence the overall 2022 midterm elections to any great degree – and that is why the left is foolish to keep making Trump THE issue.  But shhhh.  Don’t tell them.

So, there ‘tis.