
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">On the one-year anniversary of Vladimir Putin’s unprovoked … unwarranted … inhuman …criminal … invasion of Ukraine, President Zelenskyy gave a powerful speech of patriotism and optimism. ; He believes the war will end in victory for Ukraine in the coming year. ; It could, but there are no guarantees.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">First, it is important to know what ending in victory means. ; There seem to be two schools of thought between Zelenskyy and many of his western supporters. ; For him, victory is the removal of Russian troops from every inch of Ukraine – not just the regions Putin had illegally annexed (the Crimea) … the areas he previously held hegemony over (the Donbas) … and the additional regions he has temporarily conquered.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">In addition to removing troops, victory means that Putin’s Russia will have to pay reparations for the deaths, injuries, and damage his dirty little war has caused. ; Finally, there is the issue of international war crime charges to be leveled against Putin and members of the military, from top commanders to frontline soldiers – and the paramilitary Wagner Group.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">That is a tall order – and there are not many experts or observers who would think a total victory on that scale is possible. ; Even Ukraine’s supporters in NATO, the European Union, and around the world are never that specific in terms of defining victory. ; Many talks of a “negotiated peace” without much specificity about what that means. ; ;</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">You can rest assured that ANY negotiated victory is a win for Putin, however. ; He may have failed at his larger ambitions, but holding on to a piece of Ukraine, avoiding reparations, and skipping out on war crime trials is a win for the Madman of Moscow – or at least not a loss.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">As readers know, I have been in the Zelenskyy camp in defining victory. ; But can he achieve his vision without his allies upping the military support – even to the point of pissing off Putin? ; I am not so sure. ; And even if such a victory were still possible with the current level of support, it would needlessly take a lot longer – and result in a lot more deaths, injuries, and destruction. ; Ending the war sooner than later will also cut the cost for every nation supplying military and humanitarian support.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Of course, Zelenskyy openly appreciates the massive amount of aid – from weapons to sanctions – provided by the world democracies. ; But he has also been frustrated by what can only be described as a too little/too late policy led by President Biden.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">I lay that buck on the desk of Biden because he has resisted calls from other NATO allies to send more weaponry and impose more sanctions – including Poland, England, and the Baltic States. ; They will do more when America does more.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Biden has been especially slow to impose meaningful sanctions. ; Initially, he promised to hit Russia with every sanction on the shelf. ; The diddling out of sanctions over the course of the past year is clear evidence that Biden was fibbing. ; In fact, he used the one-year anniversary of the invasion to announce yet another round of sanctions. ; How many are still left on the shelf? ; </p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">CNN had a special report on how the sanctions have NOT tanked the Russian economy – and how other nations have been getting around the sanctions and carrying out business-as-usual trade with Russia. ; Biden most surely knows that.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">General Barry McCaffery and Admiral James Stavridis made a joint appearance on the morning cable news. ; They praised Biden for his handling of the war. ; That was odd since they both expressed their firm belief that the President should have done more in the past to support the Ukrainian war effort – and should do more immediately. ; ;</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">And they were very specific. ; Send all the weapons and ammunition that the Ukrainian military needs to win the war.  ; More frontline weaponry and jet fighters. ; Stavridis said that America has jets that Ukrainian pilots can already fly – and that it would not take a year to train them on the more advanced planes.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The key issue in terms of ending the war in victory is Putin himself. ; How badly does his military have to be beaten before he would throw in the towel? ; When does his supply of weaponry – and his supply of young men as fodder – reach the breaking point?</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Actually, I do not believe Putin will ever give up – ; and accept the terms that Zelenskyy lays out. ; But that does not mean such a victory is impossible, but Putin will not be the person to decide. ; When the losses on the battlefield are great enough – and when there are sufficient sanctions to really cripple the Russian economy – the folks around Putin will take him out, one way or another.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Biden was correct when he said that Putin could not be allowed to remain in power. ; As long as he is, the megalomaniacal dreams of empire will continue to guide Russian international policy. ; If there is a complete victory for Ukraine within the coming year, it would be a safe bet that Putin will be gone from the Kremlin when it happens.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">So, there ‘tis.</p>

Zelenskyy Sees the War Ending in the Coming Year
