On the one-year anniversary of Vladimir Putin’s unprovoked … unwarranted … inhuman …criminal … invasion of Ukraine, President Zelenskyy gave a powerful speech of patriotism and optimism. He believes the war will end in victory for Ukraine in the coming year. It could, but there are no guarantees.
First, it is important to know what ending in victory means. There seem to be two schools of thought between Zelenskyy and many of his western supporters. For him, victory is the removal of Russian troops from every inch of Ukraine – not just the regions Putin had illegally annexed (the Crimea) … the areas he previously held hegemony over (the Donbas) … and the additional regions he has temporarily conquered.
In addition to removing troops, victory means that Putin’s Russia will have to pay reparations for the deaths, injuries, and damage his dirty little war has caused. Finally, there is the issue of international war crime charges to be leveled against Putin and members of the military, from top commanders to frontline soldiers – and the paramilitary Wagner Group.
That is a tall order – and there are not many experts or observers who would think a total victory on that scale is possible. Even Ukraine’s supporters in NATO, the European Union, and around the world are never that specific in terms of defining victory. Many talks of a “negotiated peace” without much specificity about what that means.
You can rest assured that ANY negotiated victory is a win for Putin, however. He may have failed at his larger ambitions, but holding on to a piece of Ukraine, avoiding reparations, and skipping out on war crime trials is a win for the Madman of Moscow – or at least not a loss.
As readers know, I have been in the Zelenskyy camp in defining victory. But can he achieve his vision without his allies upping the military support – even to the point of pissing off Putin? I am not so sure. And even if such a victory were still possible with the current level of support, it would needlessly take a lot longer – and result in a lot more deaths, injuries, and destruction. Ending the war sooner than later will also cut the cost for every nation supplying military and humanitarian support.
Of course, Zelenskyy openly appreciates the massive amount of aid – from weapons to sanctions – provided by the world democracies. But he has also been frustrated by what can only be described as a too little/too late policy led by President Biden.
I lay that buck on the desk of Biden because he has resisted calls from other NATO allies to send more weaponry and impose more sanctions – including Poland, England, and the Baltic States. They will do more when America does more.
Biden has been especially slow to impose meaningful sanctions. Initially, he promised to hit Russia with every sanction on the shelf. The diddling out of sanctions over the course of the past year is clear evidence that Biden was fibbing. In fact, he used the one-year anniversary of the invasion to announce yet another round of sanctions. How many are still left on the shelf?
CNN had a special report on how the sanctions have NOT tanked the Russian economy – and how other nations have been getting around the sanctions and carrying out business-as-usual trade with Russia. Biden most surely knows that.
General Barry McCaffery and Admiral James Stavridis made a joint appearance on the morning cable news. They praised Biden for his handling of the war. That was odd since they both expressed their firm belief that the President should have done more in the past to support the Ukrainian war effort – and should do more immediately.
And they were very specific. Send all the weapons and ammunition that the Ukrainian military needs to win the war. More frontline weaponry and jet fighters. Stavridis said that America has jets that Ukrainian pilots can already fly – and that it would not take a year to train them on the more advanced planes.
The key issue in terms of ending the war in victory is Putin himself. How badly does his military have to be beaten before he would throw in the towel? When does his supply of weaponry – and his supply of young men as fodder – reach the breaking point?
Actually, I do not believe Putin will ever give up – and accept the terms that Zelenskyy lays out. But that does not mean such a victory is impossible, but Putin will not be the person to decide. When the losses on the battlefield are great enough – and when there are sufficient sanctions to really cripple the Russian economy – the folks around Putin will take him out, one way or another.
Biden was correct when he said that Putin could not be allowed to remain in power. As long as he is, the megalomaniacal dreams of empire will continue to guide Russian international policy. If there is a complete victory for Ukraine within the coming year, it would be a safe bet that Putin will be gone from the Kremlin when it happens.
So, there ‘tis.