It is all a matter of what issues the voters decide to decide upon. Republicans will be pushing the border crisis, crime, inflation and Biden’s mental acuity – or lack thereof. Democrats will be trying to get voters thinking about the economy (Democrat version), abortion and Trump as the Grinch who will steal democracy.
In view of public opinion about the economy – and which candidate has done a better job – you would not expect Democrats to sail into that headwind. But the perception of the economy has historically been the most significant issue in determining the vote. So sayeth Democrat strategist James Carville. Biden has no choice but to try to turn around public perception. That is no small task since the public is not seeing the economy as some abstract issue. Their opinions are based on what they see and suffer for real every day.
In order to recast public opinion on the economy, Team Biden is sending out Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. That makes sense. After all, she is the most senior spokesperson on economic issues. The problem is that once she presses the campaign button, she is not as trustworthy as she might otherwise be. Her job now is not to provide objective public information regarding the economy, but to sell the political narrative – and they are quite different things.
We saw that in her recent foray into Detroit. She spun the disappointing inflation numbers as “a tad higher” than the experts expected. She was not a happy camper over the reaction in the markets – which suggested that those with skin (money) in the game saw the recent hike in inflation as more than a “tad” of a problem.
Yellen complained to the Detroit Economic Club, saying it was “… a tremendous mistake to focus on minor fluctuations and to have failed to see the longer-term and bigger trends.” Good advice, but the longer-term and bigger trends have shown a huge inflation increase in prices since her boss took office.
She said that “inflation is moving decisively down.” That is a strange analysis shortly after the rate of inflation went up more than predicted in the most recent report.
She claimed that the inflation caused by the Covid Pandemic … whoa! Did you get that snake oil pitch? The inflation was not caused by the Pandemic, but by the folks in Washington flooding the market with too much money. Trump’s final stimulus payment started the inflation ball rolling, but it was Biden’s subsequent – and unnecessary — stimulus packages and his trillion-dollar spending spree that blasted inflation into hyperspace.
Back to Yellen’s comments. She said that following the Pandemic, inflation subsided to a level consistent with the Central Bank’s annual target of 2 percent. I have no idea what she is talking about. In fact, inflation soared a year AFTER we were unmasking and kids were going back to school – and has not yet settled at the 2 percent rate. At 3 percent in the most recent report, the rate of inflation was 50 percent higher than the Central Bank target.
In her multi-state tour, Yellen offered up Biden’s same old talking points about infrastructure spending, clean energy investments and low unemployment rates. The Biden administration has been sending out that message for months without much luck. Those silly folks back home keep insisting on focusing on the economy that is battering them.
Her most head-scratching claim was that workers earning the medium income today, could buy the same basket of goods and services as in 2019, but with $1,400 left over for the savings account. That bit of statistical prestidigitation confirms that old adage that figures do not lie, but liars figure. Today’s dollar will not purchase as much as a 2019 dollar … period.
When asked who she would like to have lunch with, she chose 20th Century economist John Maynard Keynes — the man who proffered tax and spend policies regardless of the debt. Anyone who knows economic philosophy would immediately see the problem – and she confirmed it. She said, “He changed the way all of us understand business cycles, public policy and financial markets.” Yes, he did – and we can all see how well that has turned out.
When asked the same question, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer – in a butt bussing moment – picked Yellen. Calling her a “badass” who “eats, breathes and sleeps economics.” Not without a big helping of politics, I might add.
So, there ‘tis.